Our form expert has had 5/1 and 8/1 winners in his last two Verdict columns and he has three Doncaster tips on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday November 7
1pt e.w. Copacabana Sands in the 14:10 Doncaster at 18/1 (bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4)
2pts win I‘m The One in the 14:45 Doncaster at 13/2 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor, Boylesports)
1pt e.w Castle Cove in the 15:25 Doncaster at 10/1 (bet365, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 William Hill 5 places)
Fallon can be king of the Castle
The curtain finally comes down on the turf Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday and it might finish just as it did last year, with CASTLE COVE winning the Virgin Bet November Handicap on Town Moor.
This end-of-season handicap is just the sort of race William Haggas can target from a long way out and he’s won it twice from just four runners in the last 14 years, so it looks significant Castle Cove is here again in an attempt to retain his crown.
When the son of Camelot landed this race by over four lengths in heavy ground last season he looked a potential Group horse and while things clearly haven’t been plain sailing for him, given we haven’t seen him since, he does not look handicapped out of things off a mark of 100 considering last year’s performance.
The ground won’t be as testing this time around, but it’ll still take some getting home and we know this horse will relish the test, while he remains remarkably unexposed over the trip as last year’s race was the only time he has raced over 1m4f.
It looks ideal for him and his absence is of little concern, as he won first time out last season off the back of 338 days off and in Jon and Julia Aisbitt he has got dream owners for a target trainer as they couldn’t be more patient.
Indeed, they have won 13 handicaps from 52 runners (25%) who have had five months or more off, to a level stakes profit of £98.25 to £1 at SP, including big handicaps with the likes of Johan and Godwinson who both landed the Lincoln off significant breaks at this track.
Such patience creates a nice situation for a trainer like Haggas who can make long-term plans and he is typically finishing the season strongly, while his numbers teaming up with Cieren Fallon since September 1 read a very healthy 18 wins from 70 at 25.71%.
Nobody Knows, Alfred Wincham and Lord Melbourne look the main threats, and they have all been popular in the market, but so has Castle Cove and that quiet confidence looks more significant. He still looks a bet at anything north of 7/1.
The Verdict: Back CASTLE COVE in the 15:25 Doncaster
The One and only in the Gillies
Earlier on the card at Doncaster John & Thady Gosden’s I’M THE ONE looks a decent bet at 13/2 in the Listed Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Irish EBF Gillies Fillies' Stakes over 10 furlongs.
Gosden has won this race twice in the last seven years including with Danielle 12 months ago and I’m The One looked a filly of huge potential when bolting up on debut at Newbury in April.
She ran green around the bend in the Cheshire Oaks and missed Epsom after that, but the Gosdens have given her time and she returned from nearly six months off on the all-weather at Southwell on October 19.
Beaten a short head in a head-bobber, she should come on significantly for that run and the return to 10 furlongs at Doncaster, a course with many similarities to Newbury, can see her in her best light.
Stall 17 in an unusually big field gives Sean Levey something to think about, but he’s got hold-up horses to his immediate inside and if he wants to go forward and get a position he should be able to.
Either way, she’s arguably got the best form and the most potential in the field, so her current odds look very fair indeed.
The Verdict: Back I’M THE ONE in the 14:45 Doncaster
Copa, Copacabana
There are a few more pounds up for grabs for Andrew Balding in his pursuit of Aidan O’Brien and he could well scoop the maximum £34,026 in the Listed Wentworth Stakes at 14:10 with COPACABANA SANDS.
The Sands Of Mali filly has had three runs for her new yard since switching from Ireland and it has been a learning curve for Balding, who has run her over seven furlongs on each occasion.
Last time, here at Doncaster, she travelled strongly in Group 3 company in a prominent position before weakening into sixth in the final furlong, and it’s no wonder she tries her hand back at six after that.
She travels like a sprinter and brings with her some very good soft ground form from Ireland, while it’s noticeable Oisin Murphy is back on board after riding her last time, suggesting he might well have had an input into this drop in trip.
Freshened up after two months off, Balding has added a first-time tongue-tie which he has a very good record with (17 winners at 18.28%, +£10.67 to £1 at SP) and given she was rated 106 in Ireland she’s probably better than her rating of 98.
That might be here nor there in this Listed race, but it’s contributed to her price being bigger than it should be and though there were nibbles from the 25s, 18/1 remains fair.
The Verdict: Back COPACABANA SANDS in the 14:10 Doncaster
Preview posted at 16:00 GMT on 06/11/26
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