Saturday racing tips: Best value bets for Cheltenham & Doncaster on Saturday October 23
Matt Brocklebank landed a monster 66/1 Value Bet ante-post winner with Sealiway last weekend - don't miss his thoughts for Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 23
1pt win Jersey Wonder in 4.05 Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Lahore in 4.20 Doncaster at 9/1 (General)
Sissoko the danger to Doncaster favourite?
From a handful of five-day entries, the Ballydoyle challenge on Saturday’s Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes was a little surprisingly chiselled down to just one in the exciting and unbeaten Luxembourg, and that’s not the only mini-twist delivered by the O’Brien family at Doncaster.
Joseph – twice a winner of this prize as number one jockey for father, Aidan - has swerved the race entirely with Qatar Racing’s Buckaroo, who takes up an engagement over 10 furlongs in France instead. But younger brother Donnacha – who rode Magna Grecia to victory here three years ago – rolls the dice with his own rising star Sissoko, nine days after a runaway Curragh maiden triumph.
The son of Australia has Classic winners in both sides of his pedigree and clearly took a monumental step forward from his debut sixth at the end of September to produce what he did at the second time of asking just last Thursday.
He appeared gun-barrel straight and also put his head down in a very likeable manner when asked the question, something which can’t necessarily be said of Luxembourg in the Beresford Stakes, and with all due respect to the stout-staying Royal Patronage, perhaps it will be Sissoko in place to take advantage should the market leader not quite come up to scratch in this race for the third consecutive year.
I can’t put anyone off him at 10/1, though it clearly involves more guesswork than I’m perfectly comfortable with so will swerve the feature entirely when it comes to parting with any cash.
Conditions ideal for well-treated sprinter
I am, however, happy to throw a few quid the way of old friend LAHORE in the Virgin Bet Handicap, which looks likely to be run at a quite ferocious gallop.
That’s the hope anyway as with Indian Sounds, Sunday Sovereign, El Astronaute and Dakota Gold all in a line from stalls three to six, low could be the place to be when it matters. Lahore has drawn stall one which I wouldn’t typically be in love with over five furlongs at Doncaster, particularly on decent ground, but centre-to-far side can often be a help when there is juice underfoot and there’s certainly a favourable-looking set-up, despite another speedster Copper Knight being drawn over in 12 closer to the stands.
Having won two sprint handicaps from marks of 96 (this C&D) and 101 (at York) in 2020, this season was always going to be a little bit of a struggle for Lahore but after ending last year rated 104 he has slipped a full stone below that perch now to 90.
He’s been sent off at big prices in really tough races most of the year but there were definite signs of support at York most recently (16/1) and he ran quite well from off the pace again, despite being nudged markedly by a flying Illusionist, who went on to win in terrific fashion.
Lahore would never have defeated Grant Tuer’s horse on the day but he’s value for a fair bit more than the three and a half lengths he was beaten at the line, and he gets an 8lb pull with the same horse at the revised weights.
He’ll also enjoy the return to Doncaster and with regular rider Rowan Scott required for Ed Bethell’s Eidikos at Newbury, I’m quite encouraged by the fact Phil Makin has turned to P J McDonald whose level-stakes profit on Town Moor over the past five seasons reads +28.88.
Wonder strike on good ground at Cheltenham?
Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting can sometimes get a little bit buried if the Flat fare lives up to expectations but there’s some competitive stuff live on ITV4 featuring the return of Cloth Cap under top weight in the 888sport What’s Your Thinking Handicap Chase.
He’s had a breathing operation since pulling up in the Grand National and, despite having his ground, it looks right he’s only second in here behind Storm Control. His trainer Kerry Lee hasn’t sent out a loser since July (4-4 since) and Storm Control is back on the same mark as when completing an Old Course/New Course Prestbury Park double over this extended trip last December.
He copes with any ground and goes well fresh so there’s plenty to like about this lightly-weighted front-runner back on a track (Old) which really does suit those close to the pace early on.
There hasn’t been an Irish runner in Cheltenham's initial Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle for the past two years but now we have three which looks interesting given the likes of Mrs Milner and The Shunter both ran in early-season Cheltenham handicaps before going on to enjoy Festival success last spring.
They’re not exactly going unnoticed in the market either, though, so preference is for a bet on JERSEY WONDER, who reopposes Geordie Des Champs after only a neck split them at the line at Ffos Last on June 17.
Oliver Sherwood’s ex-Flat recruit is only 1lb better off at the revised weights but I don’t think we saw the best of him at all in that tactical, three-runner affair and the much stronger gallop on the cards here should be right up his street.
The drying forecast is another plus for the son of Zoffany, who was rated 89 on the level when snapped up from Jamie Osborne's yard. He won a couple of fast-ground, relatively low-grade handicaps at Fontwell and Exeter in the spring before proving his subsequent Haydock flop in the mud to be all wrong with the aforementioned second in Wales.
There’s still plenty of upside with him as a staying handicapper over hurdles, especially with Sherwood fitting cheekpieces for the first time (stable is 9/67 at 13.43%), and this time of year before the ground turns is clearly going to be the time to catch him.
Published at 1530 BST on 22/10/21
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