Saturday horse racing analysis: Horses to follow – five interesting runners off a lay-off

AKHU NAJLA – 4.50 Ascot, 308 days off, (Roger Varian) Timeform 105

Desert Crown and Hukum race off 65 days off in the King George on Saturday but that absence is nothing compared to several horses coming off significant breaks around the country.

Roger Varian is responsible for three of them including Akhu Najla, who could race off a 308-day break in the Betfred Handicap over a mile at Ascot (4.50).

The Kingman colt is owned by KHK Racing, of Eldar Eldarov and Sakheer fame, and he looked an exciting prospect in the spring of his three-year-old career, winning a Yarmouth maiden by over six lengths and finishing third to My Prospero in a Sandown Listed event.

Beaten at Haydock in handicap company off four months off when 16/5 favourite last September, he’s been given time and rates an interesting prospect in the handicap sphere from a mark of 97.

Roger Varian’s record with horses off lay-offs of 200-500 days: 142 wins from 547 at 25.96%

ALFLAILA – 3.15 York, 294 days off, (Owen Burrows) TF 125

The Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes could be a fascinating renewal if all of My Prospero, Nations Pride, Royal Champion and Alflaila turn up.

Owen Burrows’ Alflaila hasn’t been seen since October 8 last year, but he was highly progressive at the time, putting in a clear career-best performance to land the Group 3 Darley Stakes in good style from Ottoman Fleet, who has franked the form subsequently, the pair over four lengths clear of the rest.

It was impressive stuff from Alflaila under a 3lb penalty for his previous Group 3 success in the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes at York at last August’s Ebor Festival.

With that course form in his back pocket, Saturday’s Group 2 looks the perfect next step for the Dark Angel colt ahead of a possible tilt at the top-level (entered in the Juddmonte International).

Owen Burrows’ record with horses off lay-offs of 200-500 days: 21 wins from 106 at 19.81%

AMEYNAH – 2.25 Ascot, 454 days off, (Roger Varian) TF 105p

Back at Ascot that man Varian could bid to improve his impressive record with horses coming off a seven-month break and more with Ameynah in the Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes over a mile on the round course.

If you cast your mind back over 450 days you might remember this Exceed And Excel filly running in the 2022 Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, where she was beaten just over three lengths into sixth by the winner, Cachet, on her third racecourse start (free video replay, below).

That was the last time she was seen, but she put in a really promising performance in what turned out to be a very good Guineas – Prosperous Voyage, Tuesday and Tenebrism all came out of the race to win at the top-level subsequently.

Ameynah has a host of entries in the coming weeks and months, including in Group 1 contests like the Nassau and the Matron Stakes, so Saturday’s assignment could be a platform to bigger things for the lesser-spotted four-year-old.

Roger Varian’s record with horses off lay-offs of 200-500 days: 142 wins from 547 at 25.96%

RIZG - 3.00, 5.25 Ascot, 2.40 York, 407 days off, (Roger Varian) TF 104

Varian’s third horse coming off an absence on Saturday is Rizg, a son of No Nay Never who hasn’t been seen for over 400 days - since he raced down the field in the 2022 Commonwealth Cup in first-time blinkers.

Gelded last autumn, he looks highly likely to return somewhere on Saturday given he has options over both five and seven furlongs at Ascot, and over six furlongs in the Sky Bet Dash at York.

Owned by Imad Alsagar - for whom Hollie Doyle is the retained rider (she is jocked up on him for both the International Handicap at Ascot and the Sky Bet Dash) – this horse had plenty of potential when a close-up fourth in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury on just his third career start in the May of 2022.

On that form he’s dead interesting wherever he goes from a mark of 98.

Roger Varian’s record with horses off lay-offs of 200-500 days: 142 wins from 547 at 25.96%

SIR LAURENCE GRAFF – 2.50 Newmarket, 266 days off, (Chelsea Banham) TF 84

Finally, over at Newmarket Sir Laurence Graff could run in the RacingTV Handicap over 10 furlongs having not run since winning at Chelmsford on November 5.

He did well to win there after the wayward runner-up Kingsley Pride hung across him in the straight and the win in novice company on his seventh career start looked likely to be a springboard to handicaps.

Things haven’t worked out as he was gelded in the spring and he switched stables from John & Thady Gosden’s to Chelsea Banham just recently (the switch published on July 24), saying goodbye to his high-profile owners of White Birch Farm and Michael Tabor/Mrs John Magnier.

He’ll run in the Chelsea Banham Pre Training Ltd silks if he turns out on Saturday, and while his new trainer is 0/16 with horses running off a 200-500 day break, it could pay to look at his old trainer’s record under the circumstances.

John Gosden’s record with horses off lay-offs of 200-500 days: 204 wins from 866 at 23.56%

*Author’s note: 200-500 days could be considered an arbitrary timeframe, but this is just a guide to the success of the trainers involved at bringing horses back off an absence. All stats from 1997 onwards, UK & Ireland only, and correct before racing on 26/07/2023.

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