Saturday BetMGM Clarence House Chase analysis after Jonbon reels in Thistle Ask

Wow. What happened there then?

First thing's first, what a win for Jonbon. The 11th Grade 1 success of his career and achieved in gutsy fashion at a track he loves.

He has been a tremendous servant to JP McManus and Nicky Henderson, while this was the spare ride of all spare rides for James Bowen who had 10 minutes to get himself mentally in the zone for a top-level test.

That he held himself together to land the prize is a testament to his ability, this just the third Grade 1 victory of his career. What a moment.

Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come for incoming JP jockey Harry Cobden, who was stood down after a fall on Neon Moon earlier on the card.

With Il Etait Temps very solid in the betting – he was sent off the 2/5 favourite – Jonbon drifted to 6/1, but he brought a 2/2 course record to the table, including a career-best win over Energumene in this race a year ago, and things panned out nicely for him as Thistle Ask took them along.

The gallop was relentless as Harry Skelton winged away up front on Thistle Ask, a horse who had increased his Timeform rating by 46lb in winning four races for his new yard, and half of the four-strong field struggled.

Gidleigh Park’s jumping went to pot and he was pulled up, while Il Etait Temps made a mistake as early as the second fence and he never looked comfortable in the rear, falling at the second last.

Indeed, Jonbon himself dropped to third three out and looked beat, but he regathered himself for a strong finish to win by three lengths to the delight of Bowen.

Why was Il Etait Temps below form?

His jumping will go down as one of the reasons for this defeat, but why was he not at his best in that department?

Rain had turned the ground soft and his very best form – his Tingle Creek-winning form last time out – came on quicker conditions, while this was run at a high tempo of the sort he has simply not been used to.

Timeform records show his lowest finishing speed over fences prior to Saturday was 101.9% in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival, when he was third to Gaelic Warrior, and it could be that such a quick pace found him out.

On top of this, Ascot remains a true jumping test, the fences still catch good horses out like other top-level tracks simply don’t, and this diminutive little grey might just have found it all too much.

Mind you, Gidleigh Park is at the other end of the physical specimen scale and he struggled as well.

Out to 8/1 for the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, it’s too early to be striking lines through him for such a contest.

But seeing him struggle here obviously casts a doubt against his credentials and he might want better ground and/or a slightly less frenetic gallop if he’s to bounce back on March 11.

What now for Jonbon?

Well, his stamina won him the day today. And you feel he wouldn’t get such a perfect set up in a Champion Chase at a track in Cheltenham that has not been as kind to him as Ascot has over the years.

You feel Henderson wants another crack at the race, though, but the Ryanair has to come into serious consideration.

After all, he is two from two over 2m4f and it likely represents his best chance of finally gaining a first Festival win.

The blocker could be the McManus squad. He’s got plenty for the Ryanair, headed by Fact To File, but unless Majborough suddenly improves in the jumping department it’s still Jonbon that looks his best two miler.

And what about Thistle Ask?

What a terrific performance in defeat.

He has improved again and his jumping was a sight to behold as he got them all at it with a tremendous display at the head of the field.

Alas, he couldn’t hold off Jonbon in the closing stages, but remember the Champion Chase is over a furlong less and you can see Thistle Ask nipping around the Old Course on the front end.

A bit better ground could be right up his street, as well.

So where are we now with the Champion Chase?

Marine Nationale, the reigning champion, is 7/4. The nine-year-old has been seen once this season, when beaten into second in the Grade 1 Paddy’s Reward Club Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas (by Solness) and a light campaign could serve him well at the Festival.

Majborough is 5/1, but he really does need to jump better and he might well go out in trip, while Il Etait Temps is out to 8/1 and Jonbon is into 10s.

Il Etait Temps is down, but not out, and Willie Mullins’ horse now has to bounce back, with the Irish challenge perhaps looking slightly weaker than it did on Saturday morning.

Thistle Ask has been cut to 14s and is the one that appeals the most after events at Ascot.

Whatever happens, he certainly looks to have strengthened Dan Skelton’s Champion Chase hand (stablemate L’Eau Du Sud is into a general 10/1 now), even if it was Jonbon who eventually came out on top on Saturday.

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