Michael Williamson and Tony McFadden identify five key angles to note for Royal Ascot, based on data since 2015.
Mullins is the man in handicaps
One of the key selling points for British and Irish racing is the variety on offer. There is top-class action on the Flat and over jumps, racing on left and right-handed courses, and a range of stiff or sharp tracks. However, whatever the code and wherever the venue there is one constant: Willie Mullins is the man to follow.
The 14-time champion Irish jumps trainer has a superb record at Royal Ascot and is operating at a 25% strike rate in handicaps at the meeting over the past five seasons, winning with three of his 12 representatives and registering a profit of £7.00 to £1 level stakes. Arguably more impressive, however, is the fact ten of those 12 representatives ran to form (83.33%), highlighting Mullins' prowess at priming his raiders for the big day.
Mullins is well represented on the opening day of the meeting with M C Muldoon, Rayapour and Royal Illusion in the Ascot Stakes – a race he has won three times since 2015 – and with Saldier in the Copper Horse Handicap, a race which was run for the first time last year.
Saldier is a fascinating contender as he is a Grade 1-winning hurdler and returned to form when bolting up in a conditions race at Listowel earlier this month. It's certainly possible to make a case for him being well handicapped off a Flat mark of 103 based on his exploits over hurdles.
Hold-up horses hold sway on the straight course
As a general rule of thumb in British Flat racing, front-runners and those ridden prominently perform better than those held up. Over the past five seasons across all Flat races in Britain, front-runners have operated at a near 18% strike-rate and returned a profit approaching £7,000 to a £1 level stakes. Those held up in the rear, in contrast, have a paltry 5.54% strike rate, leading to a significant level-stake loss of near £18,000.
It's a significantly different story on Ascot's stiff straight course, however. In races over seven furlongs or a mile on good ground or faster, runners attempting to make all operate at a strike rate of only 4.87%, while the Run To Form percentage – which is especially important when considering backing one each-way – falls to just 36.33%.
Hold-up performers have a strike rate of 7.38% – which is much better than how they fare elsewhere – and an impressive 53% of them have run to form. When backing horses each-way on the Ascot straight course it is worth paying extra attention to those who will be ridden with patience.
Spencer is superb on the straight course
Unsurprisingly, given the good record of hold-up horses at Ascot, Jamie Spencer, a jockey renowned for his patient style, has very much been the man to follow at the Royal meeting. He has had four winners from 19 rides in straight-course handicaps in the last five seasons at an impressive strike rate of 21.05%. But it is even more telling that those winners returned a level-stake profit of £38.00, while 78.95% of those mounts ran to form.
In a recent Racing Post interview, Spencer said: "If you don't like the way I ride, don't bet on me or don't book me for a ride". There won't be many people following Spencer on the straight course at Royal Ascot in recent years unhappy with his riding!
Other names to note in straight course handicaps at Royal Ascot are Jim Crowley, whose five winners from 21 rides have returned a level-stake profit in excess of £50, while Hayley Turner has won on two big-price mounts from just four rides in that period.
Ascot course form is key
The benefit of past course experience is an advantage that perhaps doesn't get the recognition that it should. Horses that had already run to form at Ascot have won 23 handicaps at the royal meeting since 2015, when around 17 would have been expected based on the starting price. By contrast, horses that had never run at Ascot before won 25 handicaps, but from a much bigger pool of representatives and they underperformed based on the starting price (around 31 winners would have been expected).
A key runner this week with a good course record to his name is Finest Sound, who is deservedly towards the head of the betting for the Hunt Cup on Wednesday. He was a beaten favourite in the Britannia Stakes last year but he was four lengths clear of the third and simply unlucky to bump into a talented rival who improved markedly for the test. Finest Sound's two efforts this year show that he has trained on well and his strength at the finish is a positive with this course in mind.
The draw is important on the round course
You might assume that a low draw, near the rail, is an advantage on the round course at Ascot, but that is not the case for races run over a mile and a half. Looking at races run on ground described as good or firmer, horses drawn low operate at a strike rate of just 5.82%, which compares poorly to those drawn in the middle (10.94%) or high (11.99%). Horses drawn high have also run to form more often than those drawn low (66.44% v 59.59%). This angle has gained greater traction in recent years but not to the extent that the market has caught up – low-drawn horses have won 17 races when around 23 would have been expected based on starting prices.
Sometimes stats, particularly those based on a limited sample size, can be put down to variance, but there is a good reason for low-drawn horses performing poorly on the round course. Jockeys of those towards the inside face a tricky question in the early part of the race – use a lot of petrol to get a prominent position or take a pull and end up behind a wall of horses and reliant on luck in running.
