Laura Joy takes a peak at the Preakness from a pedigree perspective as America's best line-up for the second race in the Triple Crown series.
In one of the most fascinating conclusions to a first season sire Championship across the Atlantic Ocean last year, it was third time lucky for Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) who enacted his revenge on Triple Crown victor Justify in the race to Champion First Crop Sire. In two meetings on the track, Justify had the measure of his rival but when the prize money was counted on December 31st, it was Bolt d’Oro who emerged on top for the first time.
Separating the pair was runner up Good Magic (Curlin) who similarly found Justify too good on the two occasions they met on the track. However, as rings true on both sides of the ocean, it is in the Classics where the best stallions are made. Good Magic has taken a clear lead following Mage’s Kentucky Derby win and with three of the seven Preakness contenders tonight, he has an almost unconceivable opportunity to achieve an unassailable lead in the second crop sire race.
Though Good Magic added another Grade 1 to his record following his brilliant Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, his Triple Crown form figures read 24- in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes respectively. As a son of Curlin whose progeny typically improve for a step up in distance, a fruitless Classic campaign after rounding out his juvenile season so impressively had to be considered a disappointment. Though he won the G1 Haskell Invitational, he was the only G1 winner in the field and subsequently disappointed on his final start in the G1 Travers Stakes won by Catholic Boy (More Than Ready) with Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) in second.
He retired as a consistent son of Curlin whose sole moment of incandescence in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile rendered him a tepidly exciting stallion prospect. Given his unlikely precocity and disappointing progression based on his pedigree, nobody really knew what to expect from the Champion Two Year Old at stud. What appears to have transpired is a remarkable blend of Good Magic’s own precocity with Curlin’s influence felt as his progeny have shown notable progression from two to three, rather unlike himself.
None will put that theory to the test more than G1 Champagne Stakes winner Blazing Sevens who was Good Magic’s leading light of 2022. Though he could not emulate his sire’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win when fourth to Forte (Violence), a first crop Grade 1 winning juvenile like himself was enough to satisfy the unforgiving market. Two diminutive starts this year are a concern, but in the hands of Good Magic’s own former trainer Chad Brown who took this very race last year with Early Voting (Gun Runner), another who bypassed Churchill Downs after failing to win his prep, Blazing Sevens could prove one of the biggest threats to Good Magic’s new star Mage in his Triple Crown bid.
Lesser fancied to land the spoils but not to be underestimated is Good Magic’s Perform who boasts one of the greatest broodmares of the modern era as his third dam. On all known evidence to date, we need to take Good Magic’s progeny seriously and Shug McGaughey’s late blooming Listed level stakes winner has the pedigree to spring a surprise.
Though Perform is the first stakes winner amongst his first two dams, third dam Leslie’s Lady’s (Tricky Creek) enviable record more than accounts for it. 2016 Broodmare of the year Leslie’s Lady is of course responsible for the seemingly insurmountable and reigning Champion sire Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday), eleven time Grade 1 winning super mare Beholder (Henny Hughes) and Breeders’ Cup winner Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy).
Whilst it took six attempts and a trip to Tampa Bay Downs away from premier tracks like Saratoga, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs (where maidens are run for six figure purses) to shed his maiden tag, Perform has a pedigree and now a stakes win to his name going into his biggest test yet. Though he is priced up at 15/1 for a good reason, his veteran handler does not show up on the big days just to take part. Supplemented here at a cost of $150,000, this isn’t Perform’s first time facing Mage. With five and a half lengths to make up following a fourth placed finish behind Mage in January in maiden company, Perform has to do exactly that and more if he’s going to topple the leading colt of 2023 tonight.
On the contrary, lightly raced Kentucky Derby winner Mage is making just his fifth start in today’s Preakness and joined Justify in becoming only the second horse who was unraced at two since Apollo in 1882 to succeed at Churchill Downs. In fact, Mage’s only win prior to lining up in the first Classic on the Triple Crown trail was his maiden (beating Perform) having been subsequently beaten twice by controversial late scratch and favourite Forte who is once again denied the opportunity to reoppose here.
Mage’s profile is much more reminiscent of his all-conquering grandsire Curlin. Good Magic is Curlin’s only Grade 1 winning juvenile colt and like Mage, Curlin was unraced at two. That’s not the only thing the pair will have in common if Mage prevails tonight. Mage is in fact outdoing Curlin at this stage who could only manage an eight length third in the Kentucky Derby to Street Sense (Street Cry). Progressing with time and experience under his belt, Curlin reversed the form in the Preakness downing Street Sense by a head meaning the odds are in Mage’s favour if he’s going to continue to take after his grandsire.
Mage’s dam Puca (Big Brown) earned her only black type win as a five year old whilst his half-sister Gunning (Gun Runner) is at her best this year as a four year old and like Mage was unraced at two. Puca is a half-sister to G1 winner Finnegan’s Wake (Powerscourt) who earned his G1 honours as a six year old.
Everything about Mage’s pedigree suggests that time is only going to bring about improvement so provided the quick turnaround and shipping hasn’t left a mark, Mage has the potential to outshine both Curlin and Good Magic – on the track at least. Blazing Sevens has questions to answer and Perform will need a career best performance and some if he’s going to step up in this company.
For Good Magic, the test is whether his progeny’s performances will plateau like he appeared to. If any of these three can pass this test, his second place finish in the Champion First Crop sire title will be long forgotten and who knows, it might be his own sire Curlin who is watching his back.
