Our Value Bet expert looks ahead to Newcastle's big summer feature - the Northumberland Plate - and reckons there's a fine bet to be had at double-figure odds.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and (long and short-term) at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over the column from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 130pts profit.
- So far this Flat season he’s tipped winners Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1 (R4), Roberto Escobarr at 9/2, Austrian Theory at 9/1 and Cadillac at 14/1.
Antepost Value Bet tips
1pt e.w. Post Impressionist in Northumberland Plate at 11/1 (William Hill, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
No Trueshan this year - we can safely assume - but the waters are muddied for the Northumberland Plate by the Royal Ascot entries which rather get in the way as there's just about time to run in either the Ascot Stakes or the Copper Horse Handicap on Tuesday and back up 11 days later at Newcastle should connections choose to do so.
Seven horses attempted to do both meetings last summer, Bandinelli doing best in sixth at Newcastle having run at the Royal meeting, with the rest well beaten, and it's probably best to focus on those whose connections haven't been tempted by the headlines at Ascot and instead seem to have made the Plate their primary focus.
One horse who would have been fully entitled to go to Ascot (but isn't) is the Deborah Faulkner-trained Golden Rules, who ran a mighty race to finish fourth behind Reshoun for the Gosdens in the 2021 running of the Ascot Stakes.
Lightly raced for a six-year-old, the son of Golden Horn must have had some fairly significant training issues as after the aforementioned Royal Ascot effort he changed hands for just 6,000 guineas at the horses-in-training sale that autumn and wasn't seen again until debuting for his new yard at Kempton this March.
Sent off at 9/1 despite the eyecatching booking of Oisin Murphy, Golden Rules was given a typically astute ride by the former champion and promptly made all the running to win by a length and a quarter from 11/8 favourite First Emperor, who has franked the form quite substantially since, including a Goodwood win last month.
Golden Rules, raised 3lb to a mark of 94 and now 2-4 on all-weather surfaces, looks a fascinating horse for his connections to aim at a valuable handicap like this but he's not exactly being missed at 16/1 and I much prefer the claims of POST IMPRESSIONIST for William Haggas.
Another one for whom Royal Ascot doesn't seem to have been a consideration, his only previous all-weather start saw him finish second here at Newcastle behind the top-class Eldar Eldarov, winner of the St Leger and one of the favourites for the Gold Cup on Thursday.
Post Impressionist mixed it over 10 and 12 furlongs through last summer, but he really improved once granted a proper test of stamina and was fitted with cheekpieces in the autumn, announcing himself as a stayer to follow when bolting up at York in early-October.
Haggas won that race with subsequent Group 1 winner Hamish in 2019 and while it's obviously a bit far-fetched to suggest this horse could scale those sort of heights at any point, it's hard to believe a 7lb rise to a mark of 95 will be enough to stop him winning an even bigger handicap this time around.
The Sky Bet Ebor could obviously be on the radar in August but everything about this sizeable son of Teofilo suggests he'll get the full two miles standing on his head.
I like the fact he responded so well to a switch to more prominent tactics when last seen as I'd much rather be on one forwardly-placed than ridden for luck in a race like the Northumberland Plate, where traffic problems can swiftly see your chance go up in smoke.
Haggas is seemingly in great form all of a sudden and it's not hard to see this one shortening up a fair bit from the current double-figure prices on offer.
Published at 1218 BST on 18/06/23
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