Newmarket tips: Best value bets for July Festival on Friday July 8
Our man looks ahead to two major handicaps at Newmarket on Friday and bids to unearth the value.
Value Bet tips: Friday July 8
1pt win Nolton Cross in 1.50 Newmarket at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Soapy Stevens in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is +128.5pts in profit to advised stakes/prices in 2022
The Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes looks a bit of a forgone conclusion unfortunately with runaway Coronation winner Inspiral seemingly scaring a few potential rivals off, but there are two cracking betting heats to get stuck into at Newmarket on Friday, starting with the bet365 Handicap over 10 furlongs.
William Haggas won the race with subsequent dual Group Two winner Dubai Honour who arrived at Newmarket via the Britannia Stakes, in which he finished fourth. The same trainer bids for something very similar with last month’s Britannia eighth Yonafis this time around and it’s certainly not hard to see the previously unbeaten son of Golden Horn resuming on an upward curve now faced with a sterner test of stamina.
Yonafis faces stern competition for market supremacy, though, with Charlie Appleby dropping one-time Derby hope New London in both class and trip after he finished second in the Chester Vase when last sighted in early-May.
He’ll need to be razor-sharp on his return to action but looks to have plenty of upside still, while Knightswood has been a bit of a market springer since declaration time which is easy to understand given Mark Johnston’s fantastic record in this race over the years.
Knightswood is likely to be given a prominent ride which is rarely a bad thing on this course, but there are a few too many proven pace-setters in the line-up to think the Johnston horse will be getting his own way, and I’m inclined to focus on a couple of horses expected to be played a bit later in the piece.
Hughie Morrison’s Reelemin could well be out the back through the early stages here and he’s going to need the gaps to come at the right time but I’m convinced he’s well-handicapped given how positively his Sandown win has worked out.
He's dead progressive and only up 3lb but the fast ground has to be a concern for the son of Highland Reel (was taken out on account of good to firm going back in May) and at the odds preference is for NOLTON CROSS.
He’d probably handle an easier surface too, being by Dark Angel, but Hugo Palmer's horse showed his best form to date on quick ground at Sandown two starts ago, passing the post third before being promoted to second after a messy final furlong.
Sandown winner War Horse and fourth home (last) Grenoble have since gone on to be third and second respectively in the big 10-furlong three-year-old handicap won by Swilcan Bridge (also reopposes) at Epsom on Derby day, a race in which Nolton Cross simply didn’t run his race.
Things went wrong very early that day – starting with Silvestre De Sousa putting up 2lb overweight – and he was unusually lit up from the outset, possibly due in part to the incident which saw Blue Trail set off without William Buick who had been head-butted by Approachability in the next stall along.
Either way, Nolton Cross raced far too keenly and then blatantly resented Tattenham Corner and the Epsom camber in the straight so in the circumstances he probably did alright to end up being beaten a little over six lengths. He’s comfortably better than that effort suggests and, as already touched upon, is all but guaranteed to get a much stronger pace to aim at on this occasion.
It's obviously not ideal that he's 1lb out of the weights running off 81 (just 1lb lower than Epsom) but he shaped like a well-treated animal when staying on strongly in a tactically-run affair at Sandown and punters are well compensated by a juicy price here.
The bet365 Trophy seems to surround the Haggas-trained Candleford, who looked freakishly good when bounding six lengths clear of what had appeared a strong field in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He’s shot up the weights (13lb hike to be precise) and tackles another couple of furlongs here, but otherwise it’s quite hard to knock the horse.
His price is predictably skinny, though, and the value may lie with Mark and Charlie Johnston’s SOAPY STEVENS.
He’d previously not looked to be putting it all in, flattering to deceive slightly on the Rowley Mile (twice) and Epsom, prior to turning a corner when bolting up over two miles at Chester last month.
Charlie Johnston revealed earplugs helped the horse pre-race on the Roodee and if they can keep a lid on him again here then he could well be up to defying the new mark of 91 (5lb rise).
Whether the drop back in trip is going to be ideal is another matter but Franny Norton won’t be hanging around for the speedier types to do him for toe on the lively surface and he'll be well aware Johnston's 2019 and 2020 winners of this event (King’s Advice and Cape Coast) were both ridden handily.
Stablemate Tribal Art could also go well at a wild price as we can ignore his Northumberland Plate effort (reared at the start, losing several lengths) but he’ll find this ground fast enough and the general 12/1 about Norton and Soapy Stevens cleaning up looks very backable.
Published at 1600 BST on 07/07/22
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