It's day one of the Guineas Festival at Newmarket on Friday and our man - who ended last month on a high with two Saturday winners - has one HQ fancy, and another on the card at Goodwood.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 119pts profit.
- So far this year he's +27.44pts having tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1 (R4) and Gloire D’athon at 14/1 (R4).
Value Bet tips: Friday, May 5
1pt win Benacre in 2.25 Newmarket at 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt win Whenthedealinsdone in 2.35 Goodwood at 7/1 (General)
One for HQ after Mutasaabeq price tightens
Two horses who could be able to get their own way out in front jumped off the page at Newmarket on Friday, the first of which was Mutasaabeq.
He’s third in on official ratings here – indeed only the rank outsider Imperial Fighter is lower on Timeform’s adjusted figures - on account of having to shoulder a 3lb penalty, but tactics remain the great leveller on the Rowley Mile course and Mutasaabeq is the one and only likely front-runner among the field of five assembled for the rescheduled Group 2 bet365 Mile.
This year’s weather-hit switch from Sandown to Newmarket looks a major plus for this horse as while he was only beaten a neck into second by Lights On in the same race in its usual slot in Esher last April, his lifetime record at HQ reads 1171.
The unplaced effort came in the 2021 2000 Guineas behind Poetic Flare, when rather fast-tracked to the top table after thrashing Noble Dynasty in a 7f conditions race at the Craven meeting earlier that spring.
The son of Invincible Spirit possibly took a while to fully get over that experience, but he looked to have grown an inch from three to four and duly enjoyed a good time of things last season, winning first up (for the third time in his career) at Thirsk and book-ending the campaign with a career-best, all-the-way win in the Group 2 Joel Stakes over this course and distance, for which he is penalised.
Wearing first-time blinkers that day and sent straight to the front in a change of tactics, things worked out perfectly for Jim Crowley and his mount was well on top at the line from El Drama, who went on to run well in the QEII and almost landed a G1 out in Dubai earlier this year.
Mutasaabeq has the blinkers on again, the ideal slot in stall one to bag the far rail again if desired, and he resumes with the Hills team still in pretty good nick following a double at the last meeting here. There's a bit of rain forecast but it'll still be quick and, regardless, conditions appear irrelevant to this horse who has always looked the type to get better and better with age.
The obvious form dangers are Light Infantry and Native Trail, who have a few questions to answer for me.
The latter – a brilliant two-year-old a couple of years ago - could obviously sprout wings again back at a mile this season but he’s had a breathing operation over the winter and ended last year on a low note in the Juddmonte International, so he looks a really skinny price on that basis.
Unfortunately, Mutasaabeq was starting to find his right place in the market at the time of publication, the initial 5/1 becoming 7/2 generally, so I can happily let him win at those sort of prices without getting financially involved.
The other front-runner I like on this track is the Charlie Johnston-trained BENACRE in the King Charles II Stakes.
On the face of it this son of Australia had his limitations exposed at Listed level on last month’s comeback run in the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle, but I’m not at all convinced by that assumption just yet, and he could be a bit more than a handicapper.
In fact, looking back on the performance on Good Friday (replay below), things were looking pretty rosy through the very early stages as he was lobbing along at his leisure before (reopposing) outsider Tenjin went by him and attempted to inject some proper pace into the race around halfway.
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That one eventually faded right out of it to be last of the 11 runners, but Benacre led again from two and a half out to the furlong-marker, before boxing on encouragingly to finish fourth behind stablemate Dear My Friend.
The second and third, namely Flight Plan and Galeron, have been considered good enough to be declared for Saturday’s Guineas and I reckon it’ll work out pretty well as a reliable piece of form. The selection was a progressive juvenile, winning three times including a couple of nurseries, and he’s definitely got the size and scope to make a nice colt this summer.
All three of his victories came over this 7f trip so dropping back from the first try at a mile doesn’t look an issue, while he’s won on good to firm and good to soft so the weather is of no concern to his backers either.
James Doyle, on board Dear My Friend at Newcastle, gets the ride here and this horse looks a massive price around 12/1 considering he’s already rated 1lb higher than the admittedly very lightly-raced market leader Majestic Pride.
Brilliant Benoit worth his weight in gold
The William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap is the ITV4 race from Goodwood and I’ll take on the three last-time-out winners with classy sprinter WHENTHEDEALINSDONE.
He won over this course and distance on easy ground in July 2021 and looked to improve his form again last term when finishing second in a Nottingham conditions race then winning an Ascot handicap at the start of September.
He ended the campaign with a cracking effort in third at Doncaster from this mark of 98 in a high-class handicap won by Fast Response, who has improved her rating from 88 that day to 103 currently. In fact, Whenthedealinsdone was surrounded at the finish by three-year-old fillies to whom he was conceding lumps of weight and he could find this a bit easier.
The cherry on the top is clearly the booking of Benoit De La Sayette.
Punters are rapidly running out of chances to back the champion apprentice claiming 3lb and he’s looking to enhance a very tidy course record at Goodwood, where he’s had four winners and five seconds from just 13 rides to this point.
De La Sayette is 0-1 for trainer Roger Teal but that came on Swiss Pride who was a close third at Kempton just last month and everything looks in place for this horse to run a big race. I’d have him closer to 9/2 than the general 7/1 currently available.
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Published at 1500 BST on 04/05/23
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