A 7/1 winner for our man on day one of the Newmarket Craven Meeting - now check out his Wednesday best bets.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 111pts profit.
- This year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1 and Rebel Territory at 7/1 (earlier this week).
Value Bet tips: Wednesday, April 19
1pt win Dream Pirate in 1.50 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Aphelios in 2.25 Newmarket at 17/2 (William Hill)
John and Thady Gosden look to have their horses right where they want them heading into the early skirmishes of trials season ahead of this year’s Classics and, while it’s been 23 years since the yard sent out a winner of either of the Guineas at Newmarket, there’s no getting away from Coppice being an exciting three-year-old.
A daughter of Kingman and sister to the same stable’s brilliant 2018 juvenile Calyx, Coppice justified strong market support (odds-on) when making a winning debut over seven furlongs at Kempton in October.
There was certainly plenty of style to that initial performance but there could have been a bit more substance to the race, the only subsequent winners being runner-up Whispering Dream who strolled in at 1/5 the following month, and the 10th home who took three more goes before winning a Chelmsford handicap off a mark 72.
With the stalls in the centre, box one might not be absolutely ideal but it might not matter much and I’ll resist the temptation to take her on with the equally unexposed Girl Racer, Mammas Girl or Karsavina.
The latter, trained by Clive Cox, won her novice over this course and distance on soft ground towards the back end of last season and I’m far from convinced we saw the best of her on that occasion. There could be a lot of improvement to come from Cheveley Park Stud’s Ulysses filly at three.
I’ve had a number of bets in the bet365 Feilden Stakes over the years and regretted most of them straight after the race so won’t fall into that trap again and would much rather concentrate the efforts on the two handicaps that open Wednesday’s card.
First up the Connaught Access Flooring Handicap and, for a race won by market leaders three times in five years, there’s no obvious standout other than Stuart Williams' Dionysian who has unquestionably looked the business in a couple of all-weather novice events but now has to do it on the green stuff having only been fourth first time out at Yarmouth last September.
He might prove to be on the right side of the assessor with an opening mark of 87 but he’ll have to be decent to successfully concede a stone in weight to DREAM PIRATE, who hasn’t shown his hand yet and looks to be sitting on a lovely rating (73) now sent handicapping.
Andrea Atzeni (1-5 for the yard overall) rode this horse on his first couple of outings including a promising third to Burglar at Lingfield in February, and it looks quite significant he’s back in the plate after the horse qualified for handicaps with another eyecatching effort at the same track last month.
Prominent early that day, he was a bit outpaced and swung wide on the home bend before staying on nicely again once organised in the straight. Ending up sixth, just a neck behind Richard Hughes’ reopposing Connemara Coast, he’s 1lb better off with that rival here and looks the value play as he’ll surely enjoy the return to a straight course, despite making no impact first time out at this venue as a juvenile.
The Weatherbys Digital Solutions Handicap is also wide open and the first one that leaps out at you is Tom Tate’s nine-year-old Equiano Springs who must have come to hand relatively early this time around as he’s not appeared on turf until June for the past three years.
His record on the Rowley Mile remarkably reads a perfect 4-4 and he’s only 4lb higher than for the most recent of those victories which saw him bring up a hat-trick in the six-furlong handicap at the mid-September meeting here last year.
Drying ground is clearly in his favour too but he’d probably prefer it genuinely quick underfoot and I’d rather back Mick Appleby’s APHELIOS, who has only had seven starts for this yard and still shaped like a well-treated sprinter when third to Apollo One in the London Sprint Series Final at Kempton last time out in November.
It must have been tempting to run this horse again on the all-weather during the winter but the former Roger Charlton runner has been kept back for the turf and it makes sense as he’s very much proven on grass already.
Meanwhile, the Kempton race has worked out quite strongly as you might expect, runner-up Aramis Grey beating subsequent Cammidge winner Vadream in a conditions race at Lingfield, and fourth Total Commitment twice going close off very similar marks since.
Aphelios won’t lack for fitness on his first run for 161 days and he looks to be drawn in the right spot close to Mr Wagyu, Leap Abroad and Aleezdancer, with a strongly-run race on a stiff track expected to suit Cieren Fallon’s mount.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 18/04/23
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