Newmarket July Festival tips: Best value bets for Thursday July 13

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Thu July 13, 2023 · 3y ago

Matt Brocklebank tipped a 13/2 winner on Saturday and is back with a look ahead to day one of the July Festival at Newmarket.

The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 125pts profit, while he's over 33pts up for the year.

Value Bet tips: Thursday, June 13

1.5pts e.w. Tough Enough in 3.00 Newmarket at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Time to get Tough at Newmarket

Quinault looks to continue his remarkable rise through the ranks in the big betting race on day one of Newmarket’s July Festival – the six-furlong bet365 Handicap.

Briefly with Godolphin as a juvenile, he started out in handicaps rated 59 and must defy another 5lb rise (BHA mark of 90) for winning the Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York, a race that has served as the ideal springboard for seven winners of this event in the last decade alone.

Not one of that septet completed the double, however, so it’s obviously asking an awful lot of the Oasis Dream gelding, who now bids to land a sixth straight success having been on the go since February.

The York runner-up Washington Heights has gone up 4lb for his troubles and suddenly looks a shade vulnerable off his revised rating, while third Mill Stream produced his best juvenile effort over this course and distance when second to Noble Style in a novice race 12 months ago, and has to be respected accordingly.

The big eyecatcher from the Knavesmire contest was arguably fast-finishing fourth Eminency, who goes in first-time cheekpieces here. Like Mill Stream, he’s also gone up 1lb for being beaten, though, and in such a hot race that is enough to put me off.

Frankness is the other really popular one and that’s no great surprise given Andrew Balding and owner Jeff Smith have combined to win this event three times in the past.

The same connections also have the top-weight Desert Cop, who ran a good race when sixth in the King’s Stand last month, but I’m not in love with either of their draws as Quinault (11) and Washington Heights (12) are going to set a mad gallop up the middle of the course which could leave those towards the wing slightly inconvenienced.

Preference is to look for a hold-up horse positioned towards the centre of the track, and I think everything looks in place for TOUGH ENOUGH under Hayley Turner, who famously enjoyed her breakthrough Group 1 win at this meeting on Dream Ahead 12 years ago.

Tough Enough has July Cup in his blood, being out of a Sakhee’s Secret mare (who coincidentally was a close second at this venue on her two-year-old debut), and he looks to have loads of the family talent.

If you go back through his trio of starts at two, the son of Showcasing displayed considerable potential each time and all three races worked out very well. The Newbury maiden in which he was second on debut produced five other subsequent winners; the Nottingham novice in which he was third threw up eight winners; and another five individual winners emerged from the Wolverhampton race he landed in mid-November.

Crucially, the Wolverhampton runner-up Ararat – beaten two and a half lengths off level weights that day – not only landed a three-year-old handicap here last month but he’d previously finished just on the heels of Quinault, Washington Heights and Eminency on the Rowley Mile in May, so there’s collateral substance to that particular piece of form, and Tough Enough’s comeback run at Windsor could hardly have gone much better either.

Held up at the back by Rossa Ryan, he got a strong pace to chase and ultimately weaved his way through rivals near the stands’ side to score cosily by half a length, with Eminency back in third, and the nature of that half-length win meant the assessor was never going to be able to get too carried away.

A 4lb rise looks perfectly manageable on the face of it and this strong-traveller, who is drawn 10 right next to the pace-setting favourite, looks a massive threat providing the gaps appear at the right time for Turner.

The other one I quite liked at the odds is 3lb well-in Animate (14/1 generally at time of publication) for Simon and Ed Crisford.

He looks to have stepped things up again since being fitted with cheekpieces this year and was only worn down close home when dropped back to this six-furlong trip for the first time in his life at Newcastle less than a fortnight ago.

Had he held on, he’d be saddled with a 6lb penalty for this and instead gets to race off exactly the same mark (87) before his new rating of 90 kicks in from next week.

The fact he still doesn’t seem to do a lot when he hits the front does dissuade me slightly in a race as competitive as this, and his rider Andrea Atzeni could be caught between a rock and a hard place in that he probably wants to be close to the pace throughout, without getting his mount’s head in front until they’re inside the final furlong.

It’s a tricky balance to execute and I’d rather put full faith in Tough Enough picking up the pieces as they look bound to go really hard up the middle from the outset, which would be the ideal scenario for the selection.

Sir Henry unmissable, as ever

Glenfinnan should be a massive player in the last and although I can’t recommend any other bets on an otherwise trappy ITV programme, the Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes is much-watch material given it contains my long-range Derby fancy Imperial Emperor, as well as Nostrum, who I know a lot of people will have backed for the 2000 Guineas before he was ruled out through injury.

Imperial Emperor is seemingly the sort of horse who could be a real monster as a four-year-old next year but the Arc de Triomphe entry is absolutely fascinating given he’s being kept to a mile for the time being, while Nostrum was a bit of an eye-catcher towards the centre of the track when third to Guineas winner Chaldean on his most recent public appearance in last year’s Dewhurst.

The intrigue doesn’t end there either as Mostabshir ran against Paddington in the St James’s Palace on his last start, New Endeavour lines up on the back of a fine run in the Britannia, while the one who could scupper them all is Roger Varian’s unbeaten Embesto.

He ran a remarkable race when adding to his debut success under the penalty at Doncaster last month, somehow defying an apparent track bias with a strong late run to win going away.

I’d be amazed if he wasn’t Group-class in time but it’s just impossible to know what he’s facing in the two market leaders especially, so I’ll have to shrug off a missed opportunity if he goes and wins at 11/2 or thereabouts. On balance, I can live with that.

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Published at 1500 BST on 12/07/23

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