Value Bet tips: Friday April 29
1pt win Atalanta’s Boy in 2.40 Goodwood at 10/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Living Legend in 3.35 Newmarket at 11/1 (Coral, William Hill, bet365)
Tactics could be undoing of odds-on shot
Newmarket billing the return of a three-day Guineas Festival as an “exciting enhancement” remains a moot point, with small fields prevalent on Friday in particular, but the opening afternoon's feature Group Two Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes is an intriguing little contest regardless.
The world-class Yibir has to be favourite – and very short at that – given he’s rated far superior to his rivals, has already had a run when narrowly denied at Meydan at the end of March, and represents a trainer who can do no wrong right now, frankly.
He’s a horse not without his quirks, though, and did seem to be showing all of his best form when winging around tight, left-handed turns towards the end of last season.
The time of year thing could be a hint too, the son of Dubawi having never won anything before July. Obviously, he couldn’t have gone much closer when flashing home late to be beaten a neck by Shahryar in the Sheema Classic just last month but, tactically, this race is surely going to be a world away from that sort of scenario and, as far as the opposition goes, the Johnston horses are well worth a second look.
Unsurprisingly, both West End Charmer and LIVING LEGEND have shown a tendency to lead but with the former coming back from another layoff and Living Legend fighting fit after his all-weather campaign, it’s Joe Fanning’s mount who looks most likely to try and dictate matters here.
Like his stablemate, he's had a fair amount of time off the track too (certainly for one from the Johnston yard), not seen at all between May 2019 and August 2021, but he’s done exceptionally well since the turn of the year and was never better than when winning the Easter Classic on All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Newcastle.
Very strong at the finish over 10 furlongs at Gosforth Park, I’d be amazed if there wasn’t a lot more to come from the son of Camelot over this longer distance, despite the fact he’s never won over quite this far in the past, and at double-figure odds I think he's worth a dart to beat Yibir, who just doesn’t look a horse to trust entirely at odds-on.
Course form key on specialist track
I’ll give the rest of the Newmarket card a pass and instead hone in on the competitive-looking William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap at Goodwood.
I was with Stone Of Destiny when running a very promising race at Newmarket recently and no doubt that will tee him up nicely for this event and the Epsom Dash, having been second and third here and at Epsom respectively from higher marks last year.
It’ll be frustrating to see him go and win but I can comfortably do just that at current odds after the early 15/2 disappeared fast, so a fresh approach is clearly required.
Lihou is another experienced sort who is on a very fair mark despite being officially 2lb wrong after his low-key Wolverhampton run over six furlongs last time, while the thriving Fine Wine might be able to uphold Musselburgh superiority over Raasel despite the latter not having a great draw north of the border a fortnight ago.
Live In The Moment is a sprinter I’ve got a lot of time for and he’s presumably not been the easiest to train having been held back until the August of his two-year-old season in 2019, appeared just once before June during the following campaign, and then spent nearly a year off before reappearing last August.
His progressive form at the back-end clearly lured connections out to Dubai in the winter and although it didn’t quite work out for him (ran one encouraging race from four starts), he’s back on home soil presumably fit and ready with a perfectly manageable handicap mark (93) to work with.
A strict reading of his Scarborough Stakes second to Khaadem at Doncaster in September gives him very strong claims but I worry a bit about the draw widest of all in one, and he’s never struck me as one to be with on a downhill track either. A return York may well be the main aim for him.
One rival who positively adores the idiosyncrasies of this venue is ATALANTA’s BOY, whose track form resembles binary code: 11011010. A couple of those course duck-eggs have come when the mud was flying and he much prefers the sort of conditions he’ll be encountering this week, which obviously bodes well.
From a handicapping perspective he’s got a little work to do as he’s 3lb higher than for the latest win but he was never better than when scoring here on his penultimate start last season, comes from a yard whose horses seem to carry on improving with age, and has a brilliant record when fresh from a break.
Stall six could be ideal too as he can keep tabs on the pace horses drawn around him (Fine Wine, Clarendon House), as well as Tone The Barone, who might make a bid up the stands’ rail, before delivering his challenge, and I’m a little surprised to see him trading at such a backable price.
Published at 1500 BST on 28/04/22
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