Newcastle, Wincanton & Aintree tips: Best value bets for Saturday November 11

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Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 11

1pt win Embrace in 2.05 Newcastle at 12/1 (General)

1pt win Certainly Red in 2.25 Wincanton at 11/1 (William Hill) - 10/1 general

1pt win Half Shot in 2.45 Aintree at 8/1 (General)

1pt win Prydwen in 3.45 Newcastle at 20/1 (General)

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• Click here to back Embrace with Sky Bet at 12/1
• Click here to back Certainly Red with Sky Bet at 11/1
• Click here to back Half Shot with Sky Bet at 8/1
• Click here to back Prydwen with Sky Bet at 20/1

Tapeta switch a triumph for some

The move to Newcastle from Doncaster changes the complexion of Saturday’s Virgin Bet November Handicap quite dramatically and one seemingly over-priced runner I expect to fully appreciate the Tapeta surface in the north-east is PRYDWEN.

George Scott's gelding has never raced at Newcastle before, admittedly, but he's 3-7 on all-weather surfaces overall and 2-2 at Wolverhampton, a Tapeta track since 2014.

Compare that highly encouraging record to Prydwen’s dismal effort when beaten the thick end of 50 lengths on heavy going in last year’s November Handicap, and I think it’s fair to say connections will have been chuffed to bits with the early decision to reschedule.

Having started off in February, this horse has had a busy time of things already this year but I like the fact he's back from a three-month break since a rare below-par effort over two miles at the Shergar Cup meeting in August. He won first time out in 2022 and also went close at Lingfield later last year following 68 days off, beaten just three-quarters of a length by Tregony that day.

The winner was rated 81 at the time and is now up to 105 after going in again three times since, while the Lingfield runner-up, Menai Bridge, also won a competitive Racing League handicap on his very next start, so that form is really solid.

This year Prydwen has only won once, at Wolverhampton in March, but he's posted three more excellent efforts in defeat on turf during the summer including a fine third off a mark of 97 in the bet365 Trophy at Newmarket’s July Festival.

The winner, Live Your Dream, and fourth home, Berkshire Rocco, went on to be third and fifth respectively in the Sky Bet Ebor at York and, due to the lesser effort at Ascot when last seen, Prydwen gets in here off 96.

He’s not thrown in by any means, but I’m not sure anything is, for all that a 3lb rise for Beraz winning at Leicester last month looks potentially quite generous, and George Scott has fitted first-time cheekpieces in the hope of eking out a touch more improvement.

Scott isn't having many runners at present but he had a winner from just one starter last Saturday and I like the fact he’s turned to Sean Levey, who won at Haydock the one and only time he’s got the leg-up on Prydwen in the past.

Come back to what you know...

Owen Burrows is another Flat trainer to have been winding down for a while now but I’m intrigued to see him taking his chances with EMBRACE in the Listed Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Wentworth Stakes.

This one-time Classic hope is another horse with an unbeaten record on Tapeta (1-1 at Wolverhampton) and, after a brief try over a mile and one run at 10 furlongs in the spring/summer, Embrace has shown much more since being dropped back in distance.

Her Newbury effort in a seven-furlong handicap towards the end of September was quite remarkable (replay below) as she travelled stylishly, made smooth headway and took up the runner to lead at the two-furlong pole, only to hang her chance away in the closing stages.

She still managed a close-up third behind Pearle D’or, who arguably could have won the Challenge Cup at Ascot had he been held onto a bit longer (or drawn closer to the stands), and it’s definitely form worth respecting.

Embrace was pitched back into Listed company last time, and not unfancied at 8/1, but appeared to resent the return to Newmarket's undulations and was ultimately brought home in her own time by Kevin Stott, picking off four rivals inside the final furlong from a long way back.

She’s going to need to improve an awful lot on the bare form of that effort in this company but there are reasons to expect better, with the flatter track and synthetic surface hopefully far more to her liking.

Embrace is closely related to a bunch of winners, including several all-weather scorers, and it could be that she only really begins to fulfil her potential in this sphere. That’s the hope anyway as she looks a big price at double-figure odds.

Frodon not the only one with good track record

The 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase is the big betting race at Wincanton and Paul Nicholls has typically cornered the top of the market in a race he's won 11 times in the past.

Frodon – presumably something of a stable pet these days – did the business under Bryony Frost here 12 months ago and has an obvious form chance having conveniently slid back to the same mark (158), while Harry Cobden rides Threeunderthrufive, who goes in the tongue-tie/cheekpieces combo worn for the first time when fourth to Kitty’s Light in the Scottish National when last seen.

He’s undergone a summer breathing operation, as is Nicholls’ wont, although Threeunderthrufive is now 0-4 in handicap chases and isn’t exactly tumbling down the weights. I think this is a deeper renewal than last year's race and, in short, there’s enough to oppose the local pair at the head of the betting.

Sam Brown - one of four for trainer Anthony Honeyball who also runs Gustavian, Forward Plan and Timeform top-rated Blackjack Magic - was beaten just four lengths by Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall first time out last season and is tempting here despite jumping issues creeping in during the spring.

The Big Breakaway is far from straightforward physically but has the raw talent to win races like this while his yard is so hot, but CERTAINLY RED looks the bet at current prices as I can’t imagine his trainer Lydia Richards will have left much to work on in terms of readiness for this comeback, given his excellent course record (1121) and the fact he’s won when fresh in the past.

He’s got to pull out a bit more from his mark of 140 this season, but it’s only 5lb higher than when winning in similar conditions over this course and distance in February, and his previous Sandown defeat of Gemirande worked out well, the runner-up winning at Wetherby on his next outing before just missing out in Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup.

Certainly Red occasionally can edge left at his fences but he’s got a good strike-rate going this way around regardless and clearly gets on well with jockey Marc Goldstein, who is back on board for the first time since the horse’s most recent success.

This race has often been won from a prominent pitch but with three of the Honeyball horses expected to keep Frodon company up front early on, there must be a fair chance things will pan out well for those ridden more patiently so Certainly Red’s usual hold-up tactics might not be too much of a negative.

Half measures up at Aintree

The ground is going to be far more taxing up at Aintree and the two I like in the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase are Frero Banbou and HALF SHOT.

The latter has a fitness edge following a close second on his comeback run at Kelso a month ago and, given the conditions, I don't mind the drop in distance for Iain Jardine’s gelding here.

Half Shot has run very well in defeat over longer trips since racking up a fine string of efforts over this intermediate distance early on last season and he’s not badly handicapped again now, just 1lb higher than when runner-up to course specialist Elvis Mail at Kelso in March.

That horse has won back there this term off a 5lb higher mark so Half Shot is nicely enough treated on that evidence and sneaks in here under bottom weight with Sean Quinlan (1-4 for the yard in chases) coming in for the ride.

Published at 1600 BST on 10/11/23

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