Newcastle and Lingfield Tips: Horse Racing Tips for Good Friday March 29
Our man produced more profits in last week's preview and has four selections to consider at Newcastle and Lingfield on Good Friday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 184pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Friday, March 29
1pt e.w. Hodd’s Girl in 3.00 Newcastle at 14/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4) - 18/1 William Hill, 3 places
1pt e.w. Solray in 3.35 Newcastle at 20/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4) - 16/1 General
2pts win Daamberdiplomat in 3.50 Lingfield at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Blanchland in 4.10 Newcastle at 12/1 (General)
Don't be shocked by big Blanch run
It wasn’t that long ago I still felt racing on Good Friday wasn’t all that necessary, but it’s fair to say I’ve come full circle now and moving the All-Weather Championships Finals to Newcastle – away from Lingfield – was an inspired decision.
The wide, galloping Tapeta track in the north-east is absolutely ideal when it comes to testing our synthetic stars of the winter before some of them make the switch to turf, and the latest tweaks to the race conditions – meaning we have half a dozen quality, competitive handicaps to get stuck into – makes it all the more compelling from where I’m standing.
With four of the ‘All-Weather Vase’ races from Lingfield also shown live on ITV, we’ve ended up with a proper punting day and, in truth, I’ve struggled to whittle it down to just four selections.
I’ll start at Newcastle, where recent history shows that an ability to stay at least a little further than the advertised distance is never a bad thing, on this card in particular, presumably as they tend to get racing hard from quite a long way out, and I really like the look of BLANCHLAND in the 10-furlong BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap.
The first thing to flag up is that he’s got a verdict over rock-solid Mile favourite Dear My Friend on his CV from their two-year-old days, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s horse finishing over three lengths ahead of Dear My Friend when they were second and third to Flying Honours in the 2022 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket.
The other, more pertinent, fact is that Blanchland brings an unblemished 2-2 track record to the table here, having won a decent course maiden over the mile before the aforementioned step up to Group 3 level at HQ, while the son of Farhh landed a 12-furlong handicap here in October, defying odds of 18/1 and a BHA mark of 104 in the process.
He isn’t the first progeny of Farhh to really appreciate this track and the sire’s record with runners at distances between a mile and a mile and a half here over the years reads a very respectable 7-36 (19.44%).
Blanchland ran pretty well in all three starts since the latest Newcastle victory, he returns to the north-east off what remains a fair-looking mark of 105, and I really like the booking of Rossa Ryan who is wonderfully adaptable from a tactical perspective.
He may need to be as this horse can be keen and has raced prominently in the past, including when leading for much of the way before being beaten a length by Tyrrhenian Sea at Lingfield last time out, but I’d prefer to see him held onto, behind what Timeform expect to be a ‘strong’ early gallop, as his proven stamina should see him finishing off better than most in this contest.
Irish Girl worth a second look
Ryan has leading claims in the All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap and the All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Handicap too, with Max Vega and Sommelier respectively, although the Andrew Balding-trained Fire Demon looks a massive threat to the latter and I’d probably make him clear favourite as he’s surely going to appreciate this stiff six furlongs.
Away from the more obvious angles well covered by the layers, I’ll be throwing a few quid the way of HODD’S GIRL, Ado McGuinness’ grey in the BetMGM Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Handicap.
She ran a very good race to be third to Queen Aminatu in this event last year, when it was run as a Conditions Stakes, and was only half a length behind runner-up Aramis Grey, who reopposes 12 months on.
The pair are strictly on identical terms but Adam Caffrey’s 3lb claim this Friday tips the balance in favour of the Irish challenger, who has held her form well at Dundalk through the winter, winning over this seven-furlong trip before two decent efforts over a mile during February and March.
She obviously lacks the potential of Nine Tenths, and to a lesser extent Wild Side, but we’re being well compensated in the market as she drops back to her favourite trip, and there’s a good each-way shape to this with the nine runners.
Solray has ideal scenario to shine
Loads to consider in the BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap but, at the odds, it has to be SOLRAY on what I hope could be a belting day for his trainer, Chapple-Hyam.
Unraced at two, Solray still has very few miles on the clock and it’s hard to fault his record since switching to this all-weather venue, the son of New Bay making his last four appearances here and winning two including a course and distance handicap off a mark of 78 in early-December.
He looked several steps ahead of the assessor that night, picking up well from just off the pace to win going away, and a 7lb rise appeared more than fair. Solray was then put away for a couple of months before returning to action last month and going off the 11/8 favourite under Hollie Doyle.
Drawn in one towards the far side, was he tucked in behind horses to get some cover early on, before being forced to switch back out towards the centre of the course and he couldn’t bridge the gap on a couple of rivals who had already made their move much closer to the stands’ rail.
It was an outing that looked badly needed to be perfectly honest, and I can see him improving a huge amount on the back of it. In addition, there’s loads of pace in this bigger, more competitive field and a high draw (15) right down by the stands’ side could be a blessing if the splits open up at the right time.
Tyler Heard takes 3lb off in the saddle and Solray smacks of a well-handicapped sprinter who could be way over-priced, for all that he faces some relatively grizzled - and not badly treated - old-timers such as Summerghand, Juan Les Pins and Misty Grey.
Don't miss Doyle bet at Lingfield
Bet of the day at Lingfield is DAAMBERDIPLOMAT, who looks capable of outclassing his rivals in the BetUK All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap.
His trainer Johnny Murtagh hasn’t had a winner all month but he’s had enough run with credit in defeat to make me think it's not much to be overly concerned about and, on reflection, it was a similar story last March (1-18) before Murtagh fired in half a dozen winners through April, and I suspect this weekend has been the target for this particular horse for a while now.
Rated 96 and tried at pattern level in his youth, he found himself on the right side of the assessor again after a winless turf campaign last summer and duly cashed in when scoring off a perch of 83 at Dundalk in December.
He’s had another spin back there last month, when not seen to best effect, and James Doyle now takes over from 10lb claimer Rory Mulligan, who was asked to explain his ride last time when he stated his intentions were to “hold on to the gelding for as long as he could and land him on the line”.
He looked the best horse in the race, despite only finishing third, and should be very hard to beat off 89 here with the plum draw in stall two and the likes of Bosh (three) and How Impressive (five) set to give him a lovely tow into proceedings.
Published at 1530 GMT on 28/03/24
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