Newbury tips: Best value bets for Saturday July 22 including Super Sprint

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced over 140pts profit, while he's over 49pts up for the year following 22/1 winner Killybegs Warrior last Friday.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, July 22

1pt win Oviedo in 1.50 Newbury at 20/1 (General)

1pt win Postileo in 2.25 Newbury at 12/1 (bet365)

1pt win Beenham in 3.35 Newbury at 18/1 (William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Millman filly fresh for the fight

Relief Rally coming out on the wrong side of a head-bobbing finish to last month's Queen Mary Stakes means she avoids the 8lb Pattern-race penalty for Saturday’s Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes, and on all known form she’s going to take the world of beating at Newbury.

It’s what we don’t yet know about one or two of her rivals that interests me most, though, and if William Haggas’s short-priced filly recoils in any way following her hard race at the Royal meeting then it could be thrown wide open as she’s facing a host of lightly-raced potential improvers.

Among that group is BEENHAM, who has a huge amount to find with the favourite on a line through the reopposing Juniper Berries based on their respective Bath debut efforts back in April – subsequent Queen Mary fourth Juniper Berries winning that day, with Beenham back in fourth – but Rod Millman’s filly left that initial effort well behind when winning at Goodwood on her second start in early-May.

Prominent from the off, the daughter of Havana Grey (who incidentally sired last year’s Super Sprint winner Eddie’s Boy) had the race in safe keeping from a furlong out but she showed a good attitude on the easy ground late on too and there’s a suspicion she could be even better over six furlongs in time.

That may go some way to explaining why she was taken off her feet on really quick ground over York’s flat five in the Marygate on her next start, but the wide draw didn’t help and her subsequent absence suggests she wasn’t at her best for whatever reason anyway.

Millman readied the 79-rated Bettys Hope to beat a bunch of higher-rated rivals in this race four years ago and it’s perhaps noteworthy that on that occasion he went to the trouble of securing the services of then-champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa.

Oisin Murphy has been drafted in to ride Beenham (also rated 79) for the first time this weekend which looks another statement of intent from the yard, and she’s drawn in the middle (stall 11) close to a few other proven pace horses in Relentless Warrior (12), Son Of Corballis (13) and Crooked Crown (14) so should get a nice sit.

The Super Sprint is obviously a long-held plan for the vast majority of the runners, but Beenham looks a prime example of one that’s been kept fresh for her big day, and skipping Ascot (reportedly a matter of choice rather than enforced) may prove to be a blessing.

Post victory on the cards?

Murphy has a realistic each-way chance aboard Johnny Murtagh’s Shartash in the bet365 Hackwood Stakes, where I was hoping Cold Case might be available at slightly longer odds on his return from a setback.

He was said to have been a bit sore following his low-key effort on ground subsequently deemed too quick for him in the Sandy Lane, and I do still think he could make up into a smart performer when the ground is on the easy side.

That may ultimately happen once he’s upped to seven furlongs but either way I’ll play the ‘price-sensitive’ card with him at no bigger than 10/1, and I’d rather have a bet in the two-mile Mettal UK Handicap in which Nathanael Greene and Sweet William are fairly predictable market leaders for their top Newmarket stables.

Charlie Johnston’s Hadrianus – another for Oisin Murphy – has to be respected as the only three-year-old in the race (he’s the second three-year-old to run in it, the first being Almoghared who was 10th at 11/2 in 2018) but I’m going to lean on the form of the Copper Horse Handicap which was won by Willie Mullins’ blot Vauban.

That race is already working out promisingly with the likes of Scriptwriter (seventh) and Aaddeey (12th) running well at Group/Listed level since and I think sixth home POSTILEO is worth another chance here.

On the face of it you’d be slightly concerned that he appeared to empty out in the Ascot home straight and now goes back up in trip but, I just think he was among those who did too much too soon from a wide draw on Ascot's Round Course, and paid the price late on.

The ground was arguably quick enough for him too based on his strong record when there’s more juice underfoot and he looks like getting similar conditions to when making a winning return from 562 days off at Hamilton back in May.

He only went up 3lb for that victory (third, fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth all won since) and this galloping track should really suit his style. A mark of 98 won’t be easy to defy in a competitive Saturday handicap but Stratum won this off 94, Withhold defied 107 and Reshoun has won it twice from BHA ratings of 96 and 101 so it’s the sort of race in which class tends to come to the fore.

Bethell charge worth another chance at price

Earlier on, I’m convinced there has to be an angle into the Listed bet365 Stakes where Al Aasy and Highland Avenue are the market leaders. One has a Timeform squiggle and was stuffed 25 lengths on his most recent start earlier in the month, the latter on a losing run dating back to April 2021.

There’s an element of intrigue when it comes to French recruit Epic Poet who has had to skip potential engagements at Newmarket and Goodwood in the spring on vet’s advice, but I’ll roll the dice again with OVIEDO, who is the lowest-rated among this field but still has room for plenty of improvement.

He was a good winner of the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar at the end of May and, a bit like Postileo, just got lit up from a wide draw and taken on up front in Royal Ascot’s Hampton Court Stakes last month.

He still picked up the running to lead them into the final two furlongs when those early exertions began to take a toll. He veered out to his left under pressure in the straight which put paid to his chance (and one or two others’ chances) but it wasn’t a bad run by any means and that race has already produced subsequent winners Killybegs Warrior and Tony Montana, who both finished behind Oviedo.

The Hampton Court third has since filled the same spot in a French Group 2 too so it just looks a reliable piece of form and I could see Oviedo getting a far softer lead around here if Tom Marquand is able to keep him relatively restrained early doors.

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Published at 1500 BST on 21/07/23

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