Newbury tips: Best value bets for Saturday February 10 on Betfair Hurdle day
Matt Brocklebank tipped 28/1 and 12/1 winners last weekend - don't miss his advice for the Betfair 'Super Saturday' card at Newbury.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 178pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, February 10
1pt win Amarillo Sky in 2.40 Newbury at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Aurigny Mill in 3.15 Newbury at 14/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) - 16/1, 5 places
1pt e.w. Donnacha in 3.15 Newbury at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) - 20/1, 7 places
Take on top of the market
Contrasting conditions compared to last year for Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury this Saturday and, with most of the damage done through Thursday and Friday ahead of a dry forecast on raceday itself, it’s inevitably going to be extremely holding and borderline ‘specialist’ ground come the big betting heat at 3.15.
Good luck to those who spotted the Irish-British handicap rating differential and took big prices about Willie Mullins’ French import Ocastle Des Mottes earlier in the week, but at the time of writing he’s no bigger than 6/1 and simply has to be opposed despite some of his form across the Channel suggesting he has Graded-race potential for new connections.
Harry Fry’s Altobelli is the one towards the head of the market I’m a little more wary of taking on as he’s shaped very well in two handicaps at Ascot before the turn of the year and not blown his mark in doing so.
The running-on third behind Luccia when last seen is arguably the key piece of form and ties in nicely with Cheltenham’s Greatwood Hurdle earlier in the season, while Altobelli is going to be perfectly at home in the conditions according to his connections.
Spirit D’Aunou skipped the valuable Ascot race and comes here fresh off a 10lb higher mark than his impressive Sandown win on heavy and it’s no surprise his price has tightened up following all the rain but at the odds I’d rather back Victor Dartnall’s AURIGNY MILL, who looks as progressive as anything else in the line-up.
Whereas the likes of Spirit D’Aunou and Ocastle Des Mottes have just turned five, the seven-year-old selection has a few more hairs on his chest which might not be a bad thing in the ground and he’s looked a different horse this time around having won just one of his four starts over hurdles last season.
Following a low-key comeback run at Sandown in November, he landed a punt at Wincanton the following month before defying a 7lb rise with a striking success at Kempton’s Christmas meeting.
Running without the hood worn for his six previous outings, Aurigny Mill was held up last early and absolutely loved the strong gallop set by Our Champ (reopposes) and Matterhorn, the early pace there helping him settle and find a jumping rhythm.
He fluffed two-out but was good at the last and ended up winning with any amount in hand. The handicapper has gone with 9lb but it could have been a stone and, with Dartnall stating he’s only now beginning to fulfil his potential having suffered with foot problems in the past, there could be so much more to come.
Bad ground doesn’t seem to be an issue but the main positives here are the likely early tempo, with four of five front-runners signed on, and the long Newbury straight which should suit the horse really well.
Don't miss steadily progressive Donnacha
The other one I’ve been sweet on for a while and has crept in at the bottom of the weights is DONNACHA.
A lightly-raced, second-season novice, Nigel Hawke’s horse is another work in progress and looks highly likely to appreciate a thorough test at the trip, having caught the eye with his staying-on third behind Go Dante and Doddiethegreat on Cheltenham’s New Course in December.
Beaten just a length and three-quarters at the line that day, he’s a couple of pounds better off with the winner despite going in again since at Warwick, when showing a really likeable attitude from a prominent pitch to beat another upwardly-mobile sort in Klitschko at Warwick last month.
He looks a very hardy horse which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as he’s from the same family as Irish Grand National winner General Principle and his willingness is a massive asset going into a soft-ground Betfair Hurdle in which there are extra places on offer galore.
Is this the way to play the Game Spirit...?
Ikarak could be worth another chance back on a flat track in the Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle but 7/1 about him isn't anything to write home about and the most tempting bet elsewhere on the card is AMARILLO SKY in what looks a winnable edition of the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase.
The market is topped by Edwardstone, who drops back to two miles and obviously remains capable of high-class form based on his Tingle Creek second to Jonbon in early-December but I didn’t like how he was hanging at Kempton last time and looked a beaten horse long before stamina became an issue over the intermediate trip of the Silviniaco Conti Chase.
Editeur Du Gite was unable to repeat his heroics from 2023 in last month’s rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham but is the sort to bounce straight back in first-time cheekpieces, while Boothill obviously can’t be judged too harshly on his fall five out in the Desert Orchid over Christmas.
However, Amarillo Sky is a bigger price than both of them and he looks to have unfinished business over fences. He’s got a decent strike-rate (4-10) in this code and seems to handle all types of ground equally as well when on song.
He finished lame in the aforementioned Clarence House won by Editeur Du Gite last year and now has another long layoff to overcome, but he’s won when fresh in the past, has two Newbury wins on his CV already and represents a trainer-owner team that won the Denman Chase with Eldorado Allen on this card a couple of seasons back.
Published at 1600 GMT on 09/02/24
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