Newbury tips: Best value bets for Betfair Hurdle day on Saturday February 11

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Sat February 11, 2023 · 3y ago

The Betfair Hurdle card at Newbury dominates the weekend's racing and Matt Brocklebank is on hand to offer his thoughts on the action.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, February 11

1pt win Flemenstide in 1.50 Newbury at 12/1 (BetVictor, Coral)

1pt win Aucunrisque in 3.35 Newbury at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt win Faivoir in 3.35 Newbury at 20/1 (Coral)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Declarations for the Betfair Hurdle thankfully held up exceptionally well considering the struggles Newbury have faced with the ground in the lead-up to Saturday’s richly-endowed handicap.

Watering restrictions and atypical February weather mean it could be pretty lively underfoot and I’m not sure the ground will be riding as ‘dead’ as some have predicted with the frost covers able to be cleared on Friday afternoon.

That could throw the race wide open, with the likes of Hacker Des Places, Icare Allen, Monviel, No Ordinary Joe and gambled-on novice Master Chewy among those who may be slightly inconvenienced by this developing into a proper speed test.

I’m loath to throw Emmet Mullins’ Filey Bay into that category as well as he won on quick ground at Doncaster two starts ago, but that was a weak race and he was tried over two and a half miles last season too so I’m hopeful something may ultimately prove a little too nippy for the son of Fame And Glory on this flat track.

There are a couple at bigger prices who should relish the conditions, not least AUCUNRISQUE for local trainer Chris Gordon, who has been knocking on the door in this race having saddled a third and two fourths over the past three editions.

Aucunrisque brings just about the strongest piece of recent form into the race after his one-length (level weights) second to the 148-rated Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad and I’m not too bothered that came over fences as it’s not like he was struggling over hurdles last year before the switch to chasing has sparked some wild, unforeseen improvement.

The opposite is in fact true, given he won five times last season including the Sky Bet Dovecote at Kempton. He’s just a very progressive, young horse who looks exceptionally well placed as he’s able to run off his ‘old’ mark of 138 hurdles after being shunted up to 145 over fences.

He’s generally made the running in the past but one of his most striking wins last term came when taking a lead at Wincanton and with a handful of likely pace-setters in the Betfair Hurdle field, Nick Scholfield will hopefully be happy enough to sit in the second wave before producing him a bit later.

I’d make him the main danger to Filey Bay and will back him accordingly.

The other one I want on my side is FAIVOIR. From several months out, I convinced myself the sadly ill-fated Elle Est Belle was going to win this for the same connections last year and although she did end up winning a race on the corresponding week, she was doing so at Huntingdon having been diverted to the Sidney Banks rather than chancing the big-field scenario at Newbury.

Faivoir might just be able to atone as he’s got some classy form to his name and has finally slipped back to a mark in the 130s for the first time since his novice days.

Like Aucunrisque – and last year’s winner Glory And Fortune, incidentally – the eight-year-old has had a spell over fences but there was loads to like about his eyecatching comeback run over the smaller obstacles in the race won by No Ordinary Joe at Kempton (soft) over Christmas, and he's been held back for a big pay-day since.

He's one from one around Newbury, loves good ground and looks an archetypal Skelton project for the sort of race we’re now well accustomed to seeing this trainer win. The re-fitting of cheekpieces – worn once before without success in a four-runner Kingwell – certainly leaves the impression Saturday is the day they’ve been waiting for.

Harry Skelton is at Warwick but Bridget Andrews knows the horse well enough and it's not hard to see him cruising through this out the back before mounting a really strong challenge. The early 25/1 about him dried up by midweek but there's the odd spot of 20/1 at the time of writing and he's well worth a dart at 16/1 and bigger.

The other Newbury race that appeals from a betting perspective is the Betfair Multiples Offer Every Saturday Handicap Hurdle.

Andrews and Skelton could be in business here too with West To The Bridge who is edging back to a good mark and clearly in reasonable nick, while the returning Regarding Ruth has to merit some attention too given she’s happiest on a sound surface and has gone so well when fresh in the past.

The one who is being most overlooked in the market, however, has to be Paul Nicholls’ supposed second-string FLEMENSTIDE who would be half the price but for the Chepstow flop in the mud over Christmas.

He stopped very quickly there, as if suffering from a physical issue, so I reckon you can scrap it as far as meaningful form is concerned, and he’s otherwise an unexposed novice with plenty of upside still.

Flemenstide is quite obviously going to be a staying chaser further down the line but it’s significant Nicholls is happy to have another spin over hurdles before taking the plunge and he’s definitely got a bit in hand from his current mark (122) if the break since Chepstow has allowed the Ditcheat team to press the refresh button.

Decent ground seems to suit and getting back on a flat, galloping track could also be the key to him bouncing straight back.

Click here for the full Value Bet record

Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 10/02/23

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