Newbury Lockinge day comment: Baaeed analysis & Royal Ascot antepost bet

Baaeed lights up Lockinge day

The Shadwell operation might’ve been streamlined significantly ahead of the 2022 Flat season, but the horses that remain carrying the famous blue and white silks are firing at present, as evidenced by a golden Lockinge day at Newbury.

BAAEED, the flagbearer. Not only for Shadwell but for European racing, this unbeaten superstar is now as short as 1/3 for the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot after he battered his Lockinge rivals with disdain and there are no arguments with those revised odds.

His star burned brightly from June to October in 2021, brilliantly campaigned by William Haggas, winning his debut at Leicester on June 7 and finishing his season with Group One victories in France and at Ascot, his win in an ultra-deep renewal of the QEII cementing his status as the most exciting horse in training.

Where can he go from there at four? Well, his Lockinge success only wafted the flames of the fire. Here we have a horse that looks capable of extraordinary things. He made good horses, Group One winners like Mother Earth and Alcohol Free, look decidedly ordinary, such was the manner of his swashbuckling victory.

He moved so well, travelled with authority, quickened brilliantly and stretched clear in the style of a world-class miler. Bred for middle-distances, a Sea The Stars full-brother to Hukum, the 10-furlong thing will have to wait for now but we can look forward to more of Baaeed the miler before he’s asked to go over further.

It’s hard to think of an older miler that might give him a race at Ascot, but giving weight to a top three-year-old like Coroebus is the sort of mouthwatering clash that could light up the year.

Wherever this Flat season is most dazzling, you can be sure Baaeed will be involved. His Lockinge win just left you wanting more.

London calling for another top-notcher

By Muhaarar out of Taghrooda, ISRAR was always going to be one of the horses that stayed within the Shadwell ranks and he could well be the latest BetVictor London Gold Cup winner to go onto much bigger things.

Five of the last seven winners - Cannock Chase, Time Test, Defoe, Communique and Headman - all went onto win Group races having landed this handicap on the way, while last year’s winner Bay Bridge could be on the same path, too.

This looked a good renewal as usual and the blanket finish should not detract from Israr’s promise, the very fact he knuckled down to get the better of what turned into a four-way tussle, on just his fourth career start, testament to his ability.

The good thing is John and Thady Gosden can continue to make small steps with him, as while other graduates of this contest were thrown into Group races on their next starts Israr will likely take in another handicap, namely the King George V at Royal Ascot.

He will likely be all the rage there, but on a stellar day for Shadwell it was another of their horses, a beaten one, that caught the eye with a Royal Ascot mission in mind…

Ehraz back on Commonwealth Cup radar

The BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury has been the springboard for some top sprinters over the years and it hasn’t always been the winner that has gone onto bigger things.

In 2012 Lethal Force was second to Swiss Spirit in this contest before flourishing the following year at four, when he won the Diamond Jubilee and the July Cup.

And in 2019 Roger Teal’s Oxted was second to Khaadem before he did a Lethal Force by winning the July Cup the following year, too, while he went and won the King’s Stand at five, as well.

Tiber Flow showed guts to win the 2022 renewal on Saturday on his turf debut, but the horse to take out of the race for the future is the runner-up EHRAZ who stormed down the stands’ rail from the back of the field to force a photo.

He lost out by a short head but he was in front yards after the line and the turbo he showed to go so close from an unpromising position marks him out as a very smart sprinting prospect.

This horse is not straightforward by any means, as he travelled the best on his seasonal debut at Ascot before finding little off the bridle behind Go Bears Go, while he did the hard work to get in a winning position in Saturday’s race before appearing to duck the issue as he loomed alongside Tiber Flow.

But this was a major improvement on his last run and it was still a powerful finishing effort despite his kink, so it looks as though Richard Hannon and Jim Crowley are getting to grips with this slightly tricky customer.

Dropping him right out certainly seemed to suit him and while he ran out of ground at Newbury those tactics are often seen to good effect at Ascot, which makes him a player in the Commonwealth Cup.

The winner was cut to 20s and 14s for that race, but I’d much rather be with Ehraz who is 20s generally and 25s with bet365 and Ladbrokes which looks too big.

He bolted up in his maiden at Ascot and his sire, Showcasing, has already been responsible for a couple of Commonwealth Cup winners thanks to Advertise and Quiet Reflection.

It looks like he’s produced another smart sprinter in Ehraz, who might just follow in the hoofprints of Lethal Force and Oxted by striking at the top level after being beaten in the Carnarvon.

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