Matt Brocklebank landed a 12/1 winner at Newmarket last week - don't miss the latest preview with tips at Newbury and Chester.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 16
1pt win Dubawi Legend in 2.56 Newbury at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Safari Dream in 3.30 Newbury at 33/1 (bet365)
1pt win Cockalorum in 3.41 Chester at 14/1 (William Hill)
Legend has it in the Hackwood?
There’s a fair chance DUBAWI LEGEND has been a sprinter masquerading as a potential Classic horse all along and he’s not to be underestimated on his very first attempt over a six-furlong trip in Saturday’s Group Three bet365 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury.
This horse has his quirks and, in the most part, must have been a great source of frustration for trainer Hugo Palmer ever since his striking debut win on quick ground at Doncaster 12 months ago.
Subsequent events show that race clearly lacked anything in the way of substance and looking back on Dubawi Legend’s 7/4 SP in the Group Three Acomb at York on his second start – when finding relatively little for pressure close home and ending up third behind Royal Patronage an Imperial Fighter – does make you wince slightly.
However, it is the colt’s third racecourse appearance which affords him serious merit in this sort of company as he filled the runner-up spot behind odds-on favourite Native Trail when sent off 12/1 for the Dewhurst last October.
That appeared to give connections a slightly premature sense of ambition and I’m pretty sure Palmer is on record stating the trip to the west coast of America for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at the end of his two-year-old year was a bad idea in hindsight.
This season hasn’t exactly gone to plan yet either, Dubawi Legend trailing home last on his comeback in the 2000 Guineas (tongue-tied for the first time), before finishing ninth in the Jersey at Royal Ascot (tongue-tie removed).
But after racing way too freely and aggressively at Newmarket, there were clear signs he was a happier horse back down in distance at the Royal meeting last month and it would have been very interesting to see where he might have ended up had he not been bumped about which led to him stumbling around the halfway mark.
He was ultimately allowed to coast home more towards the centre of the track, away from where the bulk of the action unfolded with Noble Truth basically making all on the stands’ rail from his high draw (14) and, at an even bigger price here getting weight from older horses for the first time in his career, I’m content with being lured in.
Admittedly, the pedigree very much hints ‘miler’ and beyond, which goes a long way towards explaining how he has been campaigned overall, but he’s shaped like a very talented, quick horse on more than one occasion throughout his time on the track and this latest switch – with cheekpieces on for the first time to boot – could help harness that raw aggression and might just pay off.
In terms of the opposition, at the start of the week I was keen to highlight Happy Romance’s remarkably strong record when looking to back up a run within the space of a fortnight (form figures of 15111 in that scenario) and antepost favourite Sense Of Duty skipping the race has obviously enhanced the claims of last year’s winner (also won Super Sprint on this card in 2020), though her price has contracted accordingly.
The 2021 runner-up Diligent Harry deserves an honourable mention too. There are few better than his trainer Clive Cox in this division and if he’s used the Platinum Jubilee as some sort of springboard to this target then the four-year-old could run a massive race.
He wasn’t entirely disgraced at Ascot either – his first run since a setback after a head second to Volatile Analyst in the Cammidge on the opening weekend of the season at Doncaster – and I still rate Diligent Harry as something of a sleeping giant.
He’s not exactly a giant price, sadly, so I’ll happily leave the single-figures alone and take the proverbial hit if he happens to be back on song and better than ever which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility.
Super bet at even better price
Richard Hannon is the go-to trainer in the Weatherbys Super Sprint although it’s not always as straightforward as picking the shortest in the market and running with it.
Happy Romance was very well backed when winning two years ago and stablemate Gubbass was only 4/1 12 months back, but Ginger Nut won at 16/1 for the Hannons in 2018 too, which gives hope to some of the less obvious among their Saturday quintet.
Swift Asset isn’t flying under the radar at all although it really was hard not to be impressed with his second-time-out success at Windsor last month. He looked the consummate pro that night but he’s drawn in one here which hasn’t always been a great spot to be over the years.
Right over on the other side (stall 20), SAFARI DREAM could be able to run a big race.
He represents the same Windsor maiden form and, unlike the winner, was evidently still rather unpolished after getting a bit lost early on, looking outpaced when initially asked to quicken, before running on in pleasing fashion in the final furlong to finish third. Beaten two and a quarter lengths at the line, it’s well worth noting he’s 3lb better off with the winner on these terms.
There’s an argument to say Safari Dream will need a sixth furlong to be seen in a better light, but there’s an awful lot of speed in his pedigree and given the incredible amount of pace in this race just about across the track (Timeform forecast reads: Extreme), he will clearly have plenty to aim at as Ross Coakley hopefully works his way into contention from off the gallop.
You’ve got to go back to Richard Hannon senior’s 100/1 shot Lady Livius in 2005 for the last maiden to open their account in the Super Sprint, but that’s not enough to put me off as this Bungle Inthejungle colt – representing 2019 winning trainer Rod Millman – looks to have potential still, and he’s definitely over-priced based on the Windsor form.
Toy not tempting enough in Irish Oaks
ITV Racing’s coverage of the Irish Classics in 2022 continues at the Curragh, though Emily Upjohn being forced to skip the Juddmonte Irish Oaks takes away most of its appeal.
There were eyebrows raised when Toy attracted market support soon after declarations but I completely get why Ryan Moore has seemingly opted to ride her over Emily Dickinson and History as there’ll be some long faces at Coolmore if a filly as well-bred as she – full-sister to a bunch of top-class performers including Gleneagles and Joan Of Arc – ends up with just a Cork maiden win to her name.
It’s understandable they’ve looked to campaign her in France since that breakthrough win in mid-April but things just haven’t panned out for her at all as she wasn’t quick enough in the French Guineas and had a rough draw to deal with in the Prix de Diane when stepped up to the extended 10 furlongs at Chantilly last month.
The daughter of Galileo shouldn’t have any traffic problems here and could obviously improve again for another rise in distance, but the gulf between her and new hot-favourite Magical Lagoon just looks too great and even at 7/1 or thereabouts she’s easy enough to swerve.
Don't miss Fell runner at Chester
I’m not wild about getting stuck into the summer jumpers just yet either but away from the terrestrial coverage, COCKALORUM looks a bet in the Free Placepot Every Saturday At tote.co.uk Apprentice Handicap at Chester.
His trainer Roger Fell had a pretty decent time of things in June with 10 winners from 55 runners and the yard’s horses have held their form well after two winners and a couple of near-misses earlier this week too (prior to Friday night’s action).
Cockalorum only ran last weekend but, a bit like Happy Romance already mentioned, he’s tended to take a busy schedule in his stride in the past and there was no disgrace in being beaten under five lengths in last Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup at York.
That run was even more meritorious when you consider he was drawn 19 and couldn’t get to the front early on, which is his preference, and then a furlong and a half from the finish the door was closed on him when eventual winner Anmaat and fourth Spirit Dancer simultaneously squeezed him out of running room.
The seven-year-old stuck on well despite the far-from-ideal passage in the straight and it was an effort that strongly suggested he’s still in good heart after decent runs at Redcar and Hamilton earlier in the year.
Cockalorum was also 2lb ‘wrong’ on the Knavesmire so competing back off his revised mark of 92, just 1lb higher than when last successful and 3lb lower than when beaten a head by Johnny Drama in the 2021 edition of the John Smith’s Cup, he looks worth chancing over this sharp mile and a half from stall four under the useful Jonny Peate (7-43 when riding for Fell, level stakes SP profit of 55.75).
Published at 1600 BST on 15/07/22
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