Musselburgh & Leopardstown tips: Best value bets for Sunday February 4
There is some excellent racing at Leopardstown and Musselburgh on Sunday and our man has one bet from each track.
Value Bet tips: Sunday, February 4
1pt e.w. Fakir d'Oudairies in 3.20 Leopardstown at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 bet365, Paddy Power, Betway)
1pt win Tommy's Oscar in 3.35 Musselburgh at 8/1 (General)
There are four Grade 1s at Leopardstown which are part of ITV’s coverage on Sunday and, while they will be all interesting spectacles for one reason or another, the way the markets are shaped make it very hard to pick out any value bets. Therefore, it is probably best to sit back and enjoy the top-level action rather than get financially involved.
However, there is one horse I am interested in backing at Leopardstown on Sunday, and that is the Joseph O’Brien-trained FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES.
He is a high-class chaser who has been successful three times at Grade 1 level and, though he wasn’t quite at his best last season, he did manage to win a Grade 2 at Thurles, finished runner-up to Galopin des Champs in the John Durkan and also filled the same position when going for a third successive win in the Melling Chase at Aintree.
That form isn’t shabby at all and he caught the eye to some extent on his return and belated handicap debut in a competitive race at Cheltenham in December. He wasn’t as strong in the market as J. P. McManus’ other runner in the field and wasn’t given a hard time, but he travelled through that race like a horse who is on a competitive mark.
He was given a patient ride, but as so often can be the case in competitive handicap chases on the New Course at Cheltenham, the pace held up and, barring the winner (who did exceptionally well), it proved hard for horses to make an impact from further back.
Fakir d’Oudairies still had plenty to do entering the straight and did make headway without being asked for maximum effort, just kept up to his work on the run-in while leaving the impression the tank was emptying. That run should have done him the world of good and it is interesting that connections are pursuing with the handicap route.
He is yet to win at Leopardstown, but he has twice finished runner-up in Grade 1s over shorter at this track – notably to Chacun Pour Soi in the Dublin Chase at this meeting three years ago – and for all it seems like he has been around forever, he is still only a nine-year-old. This race should be run at a frenetic gallop, so if Mark Walsh can keep him out of trouble and let him build up into the race, I think he class may shine through, and I was surprised to see him available at 20/1. With several bookmakers offering enhanced places, I think he looks a more than fair each-way bet at the prices.
Over at Musselburgh the Scottish Champion Chase has an interesting look to it and I’m of the opinion that TOMMY’S OSCAR is a little overpriced based on the pick of his efforts over fences.
He had some smart form over hurdles, but he developed into an even better chaser last season, winning twice as a novice, including a handicap from a mark of 155 and a Grade 2 event at Doncaster by five and a half lengths from Boothill, who has franked that form since.
Tommy’s Oscar arguably proved better than ever when making a winning return in a competitive handicap at Kelso in October, tanking through that race and jumping well, too, laying a good foundation for him to build on further this season.
It is probably best not to judge him too harshly on his effort in a muddling Old Roan Chase on his next start, where he wasn’t suited by the omission of so many fences which placed more emphasis on stamina, but still left the impression that he was in top form. He didn’t run much of a race switched back to hurdles at Doncaster last time, but that was also the case when connections tried that last season, too, so it would be no surprise were he to bounce back returned to fences now.
Tommy’s Oscar is yet to run at Musselburgh as a chaser, but his record at this track over hurdles is a strong one, recording two wins and a second place in three starts. He is also well worth another try at this sort of trip, particularly at a track and under conditions where his natural speed will be a real asset. A mark of 156 shouldn’t be beyond him and, just like Fakir d’Oudairies, he possesses a touch of class which may make him stand out in this field.
Preview posted at 1515 GMT on 03/02/2024
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