Lingfield tips: Best value bets for Saturday January 20
Matt Brocklebank previews some of the key weekend action and he's got a fancy on the all-weather card at Lingfield.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, January 20
1pt win Secret Strength in 2.12 Lingfield at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
With lingering weather doubts over the weekend’s National Hunt meetings, it makes sense to kick off at Lingfield, where there are at least a handful of competitive handicaps with reasonably-sized fields.
Ryan Moore is the main draw as he’s back in action in Britain for the first time since the autumn and he is on three horses predictably priced up defensively by the bookmakers.
I’ll focus on the seven-furlong Spreadex Sports Get £40 In Bonuses Handicap, in which Moore gets the nod on All The King’s Men who is having his first run for 208 days and his first start for in-form trainer George Boughey.
Moore’s had half a dozen winners (from 35 rides) for Boughey in the past and this Kingman gelding won twice when in the care of Fabrice Chappet, but he did disappoint favourite-backers a few times as well so might not be the most reliable, while Lingfield could be a bit of a shock to the system as the only all-weather experience he has came on the (right-handed) Polytrack at Deauville in December 2021.
I’ll take him on and although Million Thanks – another having his first outing for a new stable in the upwardly-mobile Kevin Philippart De Foy – could be the one to watch here with a view to returning to the turf later in the year, he’s surely best watched in the first-time tongue-tie having been gelded since his last run in the summer.
The nine-year-old Poetic Force will have his backers despite his age but the course and distance race he won here a fortnight ago was only a 0-75 and this demands plenty more off a 2lb higher mark.
By contrast, SECRET STRENGTH is relatively youthful, and he’s actually slid to a career-low handicap mark on the back of an eye-catching run over an inadequate six furlongs here late last month.
It’s been a quiet enough time for his trainer Jim Boyle (this is his first runner of the year) and the wide draw may cause one or two issues early on, but enough of the negatives as I do think they’re outweighed by a couple of promising factors, not least the price.
Secret Strength found himself harshly handicapped after winning a nice juvenile race at Musselburgh for Richard Hannon a couple of years ago but he wasn’t disgracing himself after changing yards as a three-year-old last year, filling the runner-up spot at Kempton (twice), Lingfield and Ascot in what must have been a frustrating campaign for connections.
The pick of that form reads well in the context of this event and it’s not hard to conclude his recent spin – following a 105-day break – was badly needed.
In the circumstances Secret Strength ran well that day, switching markedly left from a wide stall to the inside and briefly looking a threat when still apparently travelling kindly entering the final furlong. The lack of race-sharpness showed from that point, but his jockey wasn’t overly hard on him close home.
Stepping back up in trip can only help his claims, similarly the fact he’s been given another pound back by the handicapper, especially in light of the form largely being upheld by a few of same horses in a very similar event won by the classy top weight Annaf here last weekend.
A 1-21 career strike-rate may be uninspiring but that doesn’t tell the whole story with Secret Strength and he’s got plenty of size and scope about him (particularly for a son of Mehmas) so might be in for a decent season this time around.
Published at 1530 GMT on 20/01/23
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