Lingfield tips: Best value bets for ITV all-weather action on Saturday December 17
It's synthetic surfaces all the way this Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has a couple of horses he thinks could be over-priced at Lingfield.
Value Bet tips: Saturday December 17
1pt win Amor De Mi Vida in 1.15 Lingfield at 13/2 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports)
1pt e.w. Ship To Shore in 2.25 Lingfield at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Tread carefully would be the over-arching advice ahead of what promises to be a very tricky day for punters as Lingfield and Chelmsford play host to the only racing in Britain.
This column will be rendered needless should Lingfield fail their planned precautionary inspection on Saturday morning, given I couldn’t find anything I’d want to be backing at Chelmsford, but temperatures are finally on the rise again and it’s hoped we get the full complement.
Neither the Talksport Winter Oaks Trial Irish EBF Fillies’ Handicap nor BetUK Quebec Stakes – both attracting just six runners – interest me much from a betting perspective but the five-furlong BetUK Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Handicap is wide open.
The one who appeals as being over-priced is the sole last-time-out winner in the field, AMOR DE MI VIDA.
Backing eminently quirky individuals to follow-up recent wins in low-grade all-weather handicaps wouldn’t be a typical way to approach things but this filly has been pretty streaky over the years and, confidence restored, looks worth sticking with.
Normally right up with the pace but happy to take a lead, the Wolverhampton race earlier this month played into her hands as the trio in front of her early on cut each other’s throats to some extent, but Amor De Mi Vida did win really cosily in the end, having not done a great deal for Luke Morris once hitting the front.
She’d slipped to a career-low mark of 63 before winning last time but remains way below her peak rating (84) after a sensible-looking 4lb rise to 67, while it’s obviously a little bit of a bonus to see the runner-up from Wolves, namely Politics, has since won by over a length off the same mark at Southwell.
Stall three should be ideal for new rider Hector Crouch (never against a change of jockey for a 'thinker') and there’s a very good chance he’ll grab the textbook Lingfield stalking position in behind Pepper Streak. As long as he times his run with a degree of patience, the four-year-old is evidently handicapped to go in again.
She look at least a point and a half too big around 13/2.
Later on, I can’t resist a small each-way interest in SHIP TO SHORE in the Top Odds Every Day With BetUK Handicap, principally due to the fact George Boughey’s handicap newcomer Vision Of Hope looks woefully short in the market.
You’d have to respect her connections and it’s presumed the assessors are basing her introductory mark of 57 on the sixth here on November 19, rather than the eighth of 12 in the Wolverhampton fog last time out, but she’s yet to achieve anything of note.
Ship To Shore, however, was arguably a shade unlucky not to fill the runner-up spot when ultimately having to settle for fourth at Southwell two starts back (hampered and carried left late on), while it’s interesting to note Freddie Larson reported the gelding was short of room leaving the starting stalls en route to finishing seventh on his first handicap start at Chelmsford earlier in October.
The one run you’ve got to strike a line through in the last one, when never on terms in a falsely-run race at Kempton late last month, and on balance I’m happy to overlook it as he was 13/2 that day and could be shorter than that price in this moderate affair had he been coming straight from Southwell.
At 20/1 there’s definitely some mileage in his price as he’s second-highest only to Capricorn Prince on the weight-adjusted Timeform Ratings – and that one comes with the infamous squiggle to boot.
Published at 1500 GMT on 16/12/22
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
