Tony McFadden highlights four stats of interest ahead of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York next week.
Respect runners from the Dods yard
Among trainers who have had at least 20 runners at York's Ebor meeting since 2016, only John Gosden (29%) and Charlie Appleby (28%) have a better strike rate than Michael Dods (27%). Dods's six winners from 22 runners have resulted in a level-stake profit of £27.50 to £1 stakes, but arguably more impressive is the run-to-form percentage of 72% and the percentage of rivals beaten figure of 76%. For comparison, Gosden and Appleby, who are next among the leading trainers on the percentage of rivals beaten metric, have figures of 64% and 61% respectively. Impressively, five of Dods's six winners came in handicaps, which are always fiercely contested at the Ebor meeting.
Struggles of local powerhouses
Dods stands out towards the top of the table but, at the other end of the spectrum, it's notable how the local powerhouse yards have struggled. Leading Yorkshire-based trainers Mark Johnston, Richard Fahey and David O'Meara are all operating at strike rates around the 5% mark at the meeting since 2016, while they all show significant losses to level stakes and the percentage of rivals beaten is below 50% (albeit narrowly in the case of Fahey and O'Meara). It's also worth noting that the trio are responsible for the most runners at the meeting in the period in question, and that the strike rates in handicaps are even lower. Whether it's due to wanting a crack at the excellent prize-money on offer, or simply that many of their local owners want a day out, the poor strike rates suggest that plenty of the runners aren't well handicapped enough to win such competitive events.
Riders with notable records
Frankie Dettori tops the list of leading jockeys at York since 2016 when sorting by strike rate and considering those who have had at least 20 rides. He has had 26 winners from 109 rides at a strike rate of 24%. That is similar to his strike rate elsewhere, but it is good going when you consider how competitive the action is at York and how selective Dettori tends to be during a typical week. Less high-profile riders to flag up include Connor Beasley and Callum Rodriguez. Beasley, who has benefited from his link-up with Michael Dods, has ridden 15 winners from 76 rides at a strike rate of nearly 20% - that compares well to an overall record of 11%. Beasley is behind only Dettori on strike-rate at York during the period in question. Rodriguez enjoyed the biggest success of his career in the 2017 Ebor aboard Nakeeta and he has had plenty of other successful days at the course. He tends to operate at an overall strike rate around the 13% mark but that increases to in excess of 16% at York. Rodriguez, who rides principally for Keith Dalgleish, has had 12 winners from 74 rides at York since 2016, which is about twice as many as could have been expected by chance.
Front-runners favoured
York is known as a course which rewards speed more than stamina and that is backed up the stats. Front-runners fare better than hold-up horses at most tracks but they do especially well on the sprint course at York. Front-runners have a strike rate of just shy of 21% overall but that increases to nearly 23% at trips up to six furlongs at York. Even in sprint handicaps, which are often ultra-competitive and attract more than 16 runners, front-runners operate at nearly 21%. The advantage isn't so marked at other distances but front-runners (nearly 16%) still fare better than any other group, with those ridden in rear doing notably poorly (less than 5%).
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