Value Bet tips: Sunday, December 26
1pt win Iconic Muddle in 1.20 Kempton at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Lake View Lad in 2.10 Wetherby at 14/1 (bet365) - General 12/1 fine
0.5pts e.w. double Iconic Muddle (3 Places) and Lake View Lad (4 Places) at 168/1 (Paddy Power)
What is the best bet at Kempton on Boxing Day?
A seemingly right up-to-scratch edition of the King George will dominate punters’ thoughts heading into the Boxing Day racing but the best bet at Kempton comes earlier on the card in the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.
Gary Moore has had his team in great form since the early-autumn and the trainer’s ICONIC MUDDLE has the distinct look of a horse who has been kept back for this meeting for a while.
He technically only made the two starts last season, debuting over fences in a warm novices’ handicap at Warwick 12 months ago before resuming with a near-miss at Huntingdon in April.
The following month – way back at the start of the current campaign – Iconic Muddle unseated Josh Moore after being hampered early on when even-money favourite at Plumpton, and then won without much fuss at Huntingdon when last sighted.
All three runs earlier in 2021 came over two miles (or fractionally further) and all three were also on good ground, having previously shown a liking for softer conditions as a hurdler. The bottom line when it comes to his overall profile is that he should have loads more to offer now stepped up to this intermediate trip over fences, and the forecast rain is clearly no cause for concern.
It’s also not hard to argue we could be dealing with a really well handicapped chaser. The horse who just edged him out at Huntingdon was Exelerator Express, who has won another two since, gone up 23lb in the weights and now commands a mark of 145, while the race he won back at the same venue on May 18 has thrown up three subsequent winners from in behind as well.
Raised only 8lb himself, Iconic Muddle should be able to do some damage from a revised rating of 129 this winter and Gavin Sheehan looks a fairly interesting booking having only ridden once for the Moores in the past, finishing second on that occasion.
I’ve always liked Huntingdon as a stepping-stone for Kempton – for fairly obvious reasons the form seems to translate pretty well – and with that in mind the biggest danger could be Nicky Henderson’s Mister Coffey, who won his bumper at Huntingdon and was second to West Cork in a novice hurdle there in January 2020.
He looks made for fences and could come on appreciably for his debut effort when third at Newbury last month.
Who will win the 2021 King George VI Chase?
I can leave the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase which features two of the UK’s finest jumps prospects in Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame, while I couldn’t put anyone off opposing Epatante at skinny odds in the Christmas Hurdle. Having said that, Not So Sleepy is probably the only realistic alternative and taking 11/4 about the nine-year-old winning back-to-back G1 races (dead-heated with the jolly in the Fighting Fifth recently) doesn’t appeal greatly.
As for the big race, Frodon does look to have a tougher task on his hands as he bids to become the latest back-to-back King George VI Chase winner. Being underestimated in betting markets is something his connections must have grown used to by now, but I can’t quite convince myself that the general 6/1 is too big here, with Gold Cup winner Minella Indo (first-time cheekpieces), the enigmatic Asterion Forlonge and much-respected rising star Chantry House in opposition this time around.
The biggest threat to Frodon is surely an on-song Clan Des Obeaux, the stablemate who has two King George wins on his CV and looked transformed again back in the spring when winning with cheekpieces fitted at Aintree and Punchestown.
Odds of 3/1 about Clan Des Obeaux are perfectly backable, and if he happens to drift more on the day then I’ll probably end up parting with my cash.
Who makes most appeal at Wetherby?
However, at this stage I’d rather have a bet in the ITV race from Wetherby where the 2018 winner LAKE VIEW LAD looks potentially over-priced in the feature William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.
Despite approaching his 12th birthday, the bold-jumping grey showed all of his old sparkle when third in a veterans’ contest at Haydock recently, only finding the even better-handicapped pair Blaklion and Aso too strong on the day.
He's often gone best fresh in the past but it wouldn't be a surprise if trainer Nick Alexander has specifically aimed him here this year (was also third in the race in 2019), and he could easily tighten up a fraction for the comeback run.
That should make him a danger to all in this line-up, having been dropped another 1lb to 149 – his lowest BHA mark for three years – and you only have to go back to this time last year and he was rated 162 after beating Santini, Native River and Frodon in the Many Clouds at Aintree.
Alexander has his horses in fantastic shape at the moment – 7-28 in December, two of his past three runners have won – and Lake View Lad is the yard's solitary Boxing Day entry. I’d back him down to single figures against the relatively inexperienced Silver Hallmark and Ladbrokes Trophy winner Cloudy Glen, who has been walloped with a 10lb rise for Newbury.
There may be 76 races in Britain and Ireland on Boxing Day and I'm perfectly happy with the stance of betting in only two of them, but I can't put anyone off a small each-way double so will include that in the staking plan this week too. It is Christmas, after all.
Published at 1200 GMT on 24/12/21
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