Our man tipped the Betfair Hurdle winner at 14/1 in his last Saturday preview – check out our expert’s thoughts this weekend.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, February 25
1pt win Frodon in 3.00 Kempton at 10/1 (bet365) - 8/1 minimum
Already advised:
Time to take on Cap with class act
We’re deep into ‘Christian Williams territory’ at this time of year and the ultra-shrewd trainer appears to have a very good chance of once again completing the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase and Vertem Eider Chase double this Saturday.
Cap Du Nord and Kitty’s Light finished one-two in the Kempton contest 12 months ago, while the now-retired mare Win My Wings did the damage for the same yard up at Newcastle, but the former pair are being split up this year in Williams’ bid to repeat the trick.
Cap Du Nord, running under a penalty for last Saturday’s ultimately comfortable success in the big handicap chase at Ascot, is a massive threat to all but going back-to-back in this event will take some doing as the presence of Frodon up at the top of the weights means he’s effectively 3lb out of the handicap in spite of the mandatory 5lb extra.
He just comes alive this time of year, typically coinciding with a reduced handicap mark, and has never been one to shy away from a busy schedule when on song either, including three straight wins in a little over one month during his novice chasing days.
Interestingly, stable jockey Jack Tudor – on board for Cap Du Nord’s last four wins – has deserted him and instead heads north where he has a couple of extra rides for Williams on the card (Cap Du Nord flying solo for the yard at Kempton).
The called-upon 5lb claimer Cian Quirke has bags of experience in Ireland and is reportedly held in high esteem, but he’s never ridden in England at all and it’s not too hard to envisage a change in rider adversely affecting a 10-year-old like Cap Du Nord.
I’m happy to take him on and, almost inevitably given it’s a valuable Saturday handicap, Paul Nicholls is strongly represented with Saint Calvados, Enrilo and the aforementioned FRODON.
He’s getting a bit long in the tooth himself these days, but Frodon showed he can still very much cut it at this sort of level when successfully giving chunks of weight to Lord Accord and Cap Du Nord in the Badger Beer at Wincanton at the start of the season.
The former King George winner and Wincanton third are effectively running on the same terms here, with 26lb between their ratings again, and while Cap Du Nord is clearly now back to his peak fitness-wise, I’m far from convinced he should be half the price of Frodon given their overall records.
The selection has had obvious excuses in three starts since his comeback win, namely the fact he’s run at Grade 1 and Grade 2 level on soft ground in the Betfair Chase, King George and Cotswold Chase, while his mark has come back down a bit as a result which obviously helps.
He loves nothing more than a sound racing surface on a flat, right-handed track with Bryony Frost in the saddle, and I’ll take him to concede the weight to this lot with another massive effort from the front.
Fellow course winner Flegmatik caught the eye at an even bigger price as the Skeltons try a tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination for the first time on this quirky sort, while I wouldn’t be shocked to see the novice and rank outsider Black Gerry run well for a long way on his return from a break, but he’s pretty inexperienced for a race of this nature and softer going conditions might have been preferable.
The closest I came to another bet at Kempton was in the Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle but I’ll resist the temptation to take on Scriptwriter, Nusret and Perseus Way with either of the promising maiden winners Rare Middleton and Sarsons Risk, though the latter did impress with his jumping technique on decent ground at Doncaster recently.
He’d had a wind operation before that success and now goes with a tongue-tie which puts me off slightly.
Have a few Bob on long-range fancy
Up at Newcastle, I’m not exactly wild about the idea of opposing the extremely well-handicapped Kitty’s Light in the Eider, with everything looking in place for the horse.
It’s remarkable to think he’s still only seven as it feels like he’s been around the block, but he was jumping fences when he was four and has been a fantastic servant for all connected with him.
He’s come down 12lb without being utterly disgraced in five starts earlier in the season and it’s clear he’s been geared towards another spring campaign having been second at Kempton last year before chasing home Win My Wings in the Scottish National, when a blunder four-out probably cost him any chance of winning.
Thankfully, I’m not pressed to put up a fresh selection here as we’ve got a very reasonable antepost position on Bavington Bob from just under a fortnight ago, but it’s worth reiterating the case for him as I certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to put anyone off the horse.
Twice a winner here at Newcastle last season, Bavington Bob ended up winning four handicaps on the spin around the three-mile mark as a novice, and at the same time showed he was versatile with regards to the ground (wins on good and heavy).
Stamina has definitely looked his strong suit, though, and trainer Ann Hamilton (2-3 in February so far) appears to have aimed him at this valuable prize from a fair way out this time around.
He was well held in two autumn outings in hot company featuring the likes of Sounds Russian but, following a November/December break, looked to be coming nicely to the boil again when second at Kelso last month, where he was giving the winner a stone and a half and in the circumstances performed extremely well.
Brian Hughes keeps the ride and they’ve opted to apply first-time blinkers too which might help eke out that extra bit of improvement required for him to win from a 5lb higher mark than when last successful.
He’s short enough in the market around 8/1 at the time of writing but would still be considered a bet at 10s or 12s on the day.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 24/02/23
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