Matt Brocklebank provides a horse-by-horse guide to Saturday's July Cup and he's expecting more big-race success for the Ballydoyle three-year-olds.
IBERIAN (Charlie Hills)
Form: 01-285
Odds: 25/1
Could have finished a bit closer to Lazzat at Royal Ascot last month had he not been nudged by a rival at a key point but he’s still some way off recording a first G1 win and his career-best form so far arguably came when a close second to Spycatcher in a Listed race back in March. That sums up where he’s at in the pecking order at present, although he does remain open to a bit more improvement after 10 starts and in the right hands to continue progressing as a sprinter.
INISHERIN (Kevin Ryan)
Form: 150-17
Odds: 5/1
Went off 11/8 fav for this race last year after winning the Sandy Lane and Commonwealth Cup but underwhelmed in fifth, while his career has been a bit stop-start since then too. Failed to build on Duke of York win when returned to Royal Ascot for the big Group 1 over six furlongs last month and needs to bounce back in order to play a leading role again. Hard to suggest there's much juice in his price around the 5/1 mark.
JASOUR (Clive Cox)
Form: 00-606
Odds: 25/1
Not one you’d be setting your clock by as he can look very exciting one day and fairly moderate the next. He split the difference to some degree with a fair sixth in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last month (tongue-tie added to hood worn when also well held on the Tuesday of Royal Ascot) but does have some quite big questions to answer now, for all that he'll get his conditions to suit and has winning July Course form in the book.
NIGHT RAIDER (Karl Burke)
Form: 511-30
Odds: 16/1
Something of a mercurial talent and trainer would probably be first to admit that they’ve not quite nailed down what his best distance is just yet. Five furlongs looked worth a try after his Duke of York third but never got involved after a poor start in the King Charles III last month, and others just look far more reliable at this stage.
NOTABLE SPEECH (Charlie Appleby)
Form: 153-44
Odds: 7/2 favourite
Unexpected addition to the race having been supplemented for a fee of £36,000. Having only ever raced at one mile, winning five of his 10 starts to date, it’s hard to know how he’ll adapt to a big-field sprint but he tends to travel strongly and clearly has bags of quality having won the 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes as a three-year-old last term. This year hasn’t quite panned out as hoped yet but certainly not disgraced in either the Lockinge or the Queen Anne when again racing freely (jockey also dropped his stick). Looks a bit of a risky proposition having gone in right at the top of the market.
ROGUE LIGHTNING (Tom Clover)
Form: 38-128
Odds: 50/1
Bought for big money towards the end of 2023 but he’s run nine times in the Wathnan silks and only managed the solitary success in a ‘local Group 3’ out in Qatar. Good effort at Keeneland two starts ago but posted a lesser performance, also in America, when last seen in May and he’s clearly up against it at this sort of level on his return to competitive action in the UK.
RUN TO FREEDOM (Henry Candy)
Form: 5/0-48
Odds: 66/1
Has won six times all told but his second to Shaquille in this event two years ago was probably a career-high strictly on form. Ran very well on his return from a year-long layoff in the Abernant in mid-April but took a backward step with his midpack finish at Royal Ascot and time waits for no sprinter. This seven-year-old looks more than a touch vulnerable to younger legs again.
TWILIGHT CALLS (Richard Spencer)
Form: 4-5900
Odds: 100/1
A solid operator, including in top company, during his time with Henry Candy but he hasn’t exactly improved for the move in stables and hard to see how he can roll back the years against so many up-and-coming candidates in a race of this nature.
BELIEVING (George Boughey)
Form: 223-10
Odds: 8/1
Fine racemare who is in foal to Frankel and claimed a Group 1 win out in Dubai earlier in the year. Wasn’t at the same level when 3/1 fav for the King Charles III last month but capable of much better and she’s fully effective over this six-furlong trip. Every reason to suggest she could sharpen up for that first run in 73 days and give a decent account here, but may have to settle for a supporting role as has been the case quite often in her career.
FLORA OF BERMUDA (Andrew Balding)
Form: 453-23
Odds: 9/2
High-class and consistent filly who looked a bit unfortunate not to beat Inisherin in the Duke of York in May. Backed up that effort with another excellent effort in third at the Royal meeting last month and a strong pace to chase at this venue could bring her right into the equation. Would possibly have preferred some rain in the forecast, but she handles a quick surface too and won’t look out of place if winning.
NO HALF MEASURES (Richard Hughes)
Form: 615-92
Odds: 50/1
Four-year-old filly who bolted up in a five-furlong handicap on this track 12 months ago before winning a Newbury Group 3. Promising run at Haydock last time but she seems to prefer getting her toe in and the hot weather could result in the ground becoming a bit too lively.
BIG MOJO (Mick Appleby)
Form: 24-147
Odds: 14/1
Only won once last year despite arguably being one of the fastest juveniles in Britain and it was good to confirm he’d trained on when winning the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot at the end of April. No shame in his subsequent fourth to Symbol Of Honour in the Sandy Lane – beaten just a length and a half – and hard to judge on his Royal Ascot effort as his jockey met trouble at just about every point. Still likely has more to give after eight lifetime starts and while untried on the July Course, he shouldn’t be too far away if running up to his best.
IDES OF MARCH (Aidan O’Brien)
Form: 17-220
Odds: 50/1
Looks the Ballydoyle second-string here having been runner-up to stablemate Whistlejacket at Navan in April before filling the same spot behind Symbol Of Honour in the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury. Much lesser effort in the Commonwealth Cup last time and while he could obviously bounce back any time, he doesn’t look to have the requisite class to trouble the principals in a July Cup.
SPY CHIEF (John & Thady Gosden)
Form: 6212
Odds: 16/1
Big improver in a short space of time, having not made the track as a two-year-old but now won a novice in impressive fashion and finished second in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes. Return to six furlongs doesn’t look a negative on the latest showing but he’s still pretty raw for a race of this magnitude and others have stronger form in the book.
SYMBOL OF HONOUR (Charlie Appleby)
Form: -11611
Odds: 6/1
Big improver this year and unfortunate that he had to miss the Wokingham (spiked a temperature) as not many progressive three-year-olds make the cut for that handicap and he was on a roll again after winning the Sandy Lane at Haydock. Has only raced at the other track but his Newmarket form is quite poor so far and he’ll need to raise his game a bit more in order to complete a hat-trick now upped to G1 level. No great shock if he does just that.
WHISTLEJACKET (Aidan O’Brien)
Form: 25-126
Odds: 7/1
Son of No Nay Never who has raced solely as a sprinter throughout his career, winning at Listed, Group 2 and Group 1 level. Has arguably already surpassed his Prix Morny form from last year by beating Ides Of March on seasonal debut and there’s no escaping the fact he didn’t get a proper crack at it in the Commonwealth Cup last time. Won the July Stakes on this track 12 months ago and every chance the nature of the course plays to his strengths again this time around. A fast start and a prominent early pitch could make him hard to peg back.
Verdict
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Notable Speech was a surprise addition at Monday’s supplementary stage but it hardly looks ‘plan A’ for Charlie Appleby’s 2024 2000 Guineas winner whereas the Aidan O’Brien-trained WHISTLEJACKET has probably had this event top of his agenda since going into the winter, having made all the running to win the July Stakes over course and distance last year.
He didn’t get a clear run at Royal Ascot last month, finishing well and with plenty of petrol left in the tank, and makes loads of appeal if ridden more forcefully again this weekend. The price has contracted in recent days but this is a colt with a serious chance and I suspect those odds (8/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and 7s generally) will only continue to go the one way.
Big Mojo, another not seen to best effect in the Commonwealth Cup, also has the look of a three-year-old with more to offer and at 16/1 he could be the best each-way alternative at longer odds.
Published at 1510 BST on 07/07/25
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