How’s the Derby picture looking now after a week of trials at Chester and Lingfield?

Friendly looks a key player at Epsom

The Ballysax Stakes, the Feilden Stakes, the Epsom Blue Riband Trial, the Sandown Classic Trial, the 2000 Guineas, the Chester Vase, the Dee Stakes and now the Lingfield Derby Trial. We are in the midst of trial season with just the Dante Stakes at York and, if you’re optimistic, the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood to go (in Britain, at least).

Exactly three weeks out from the Derby the picture is far from clear, with the behemoth operations of Coolmore and Godolphin dominating the betting, again, with a clutch of horses that have either had a run or haven’t, and it could be that both sides still have cards to play this upcoming week.

Aidan O’Brien had cards to play on Saturday with Illinois and The Euphrates running in the William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial, the Ballydoyle handler going for his seventh win in the race, but neither looked to handle the track very well, a black mark if either make the O’Brien squad for Epsom – something that looks unlikely now.

Instead the race went to a trainer in James Fanshawe who was winning his first Lingfield Derby Trial with AMBIENTE FRIENDLY for The Gredley Family, a horse who stepped up markedly on his promising run in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in mid-April.

He’s not the first horse to boost that race’s form, with the third home Caviar Heights looking impressive himself in the Newmarket Stakes last weekend, and Ambiente Friendly, outpaced in fourth on the Rowley Mile, positively thrived for the step up in trip to almost a mile-and-a-half at Lingfield, travelling the strongest of all before running out an easy four-and-a-half length winner.

The bookmakers were offering three-figure prices about the Gleneagles colt for the Derby on Saturday morning, but he’s generally 10/1 now and there is no argument with such a price cut after such an excellent display.

A well-balanced colt, the way he handled the downhill turn at Lingfield suggests he will be just fine around Epsom and proving himself on faster ground might be a key attribute, as well.

He clearly stays well on this evidence, his stallion Gleneagles, a son of Galileo, well capable of producing middle-distance horses for all that he was a miler, while Ambiente Friendly’s dam, Roxity, was a 10-furlong winner in France.

Without doubt, he looks a player in the Derby, and it’s nice to see different connections muscle their way into the Coolmore-Godolphin dominated Epsom market, owner-breeder Bill Gredley and his family having a lovely Classic prospect 32 years on from his User Friendly’s success in the Oaks.

What to make of O’Brien’s team?

Illinois made this a test and he deserves credit for plugging on to ensure second given he cut out the running, but the way he hung on the track looks a severe red flag as far as Epsom is concerned. The Euphrates was badly outpaced before staying on when it was all over and you have to conclude that if O’Brien is to win a 10th Derby it won’t be with either of his Lingfield pair.

The truth is that O’Brien doesn’t look to have a Derby horse from those he has run in the trials so far, Capulet’s gutsy victory in the Dee Stakes probably making him the best of Ballydoyle’s from the Derby trials that have been and gone. Agenda ran well in second in the Chester Vase after making it a real test and, while he'd need supplementing for the Derby, he could be a handy front-runner around Epsom.

Henry Longfellow runs in the French 2000 Guineas on Sunday and he’s 10/1 for the Derby, Los Angeles runs at Leopardstown on Sunday and he's 20/1 for Epsom, while O’Brien has three in the Dante Stakes at York on Thursday; Chief Little Rock, Diego Velazquez and the supplemented Cambridge.

That supplementary move is a bit of an eyebrow raiser and his fourth in the Craven Stakes could well be the launchpad to bigger things now the son of Dubawi steps up in trip, so all eyes will be on Longchamp and the Knavesmire to see if O’Brien can pull a late Derby winner out of the hat.

Of course, he might already have one in the shape of City Of Troy, vanquished in the Guineas. Getting his heartrate up in the stalls at Newmarket has been put forward as an excuse for his Classic no-show and after waiting an awful long time for a Derby favourite going to Epsom on the back of a poor run we could have two in a row for the same trainer.

O’Brien worked miracles with Auguste Rodin and the more you see of the trials the more it looks like he will have to do the same with the highly-touted son of Justify if he is to win Derby number 10. The bookies are certainly taking no chances with that blistering juvenile campaign in mind, offering him at a best of 4/1 for the June 1 Classic.

So could it be Godolphin again?

It’s the first time in four years Charlie Appleby hasn’t had one in the Lingfield race, but he’s already stormed a couple of the trials and it could be that the best is yet to come as he goes for his third Derby in seven years.

The fatality of Hidden Law after his Chester Vase success was a huge blow, as he looked like he could be special after running away with that race in style in the week, but it says something about the strength in depth of Appleby’s three-year-olds that he has two other sons of Dubawi in the top five in the Derby betting.

Arabian Crown is joint-favourite with City Of Troy at 4/1 after his impressive all-the-way win in the Sandown Classic Trial at the end of April, his juvenile form also boosted on several occasions already this spring.

But the sleeper in the Derby market could be stablemate Ancient Wisdom at 12/1, a horse who beat Ambiente Friendly by over five lengths in last season’s Autumn Stakes, a race that provided a platform for his Group 1 Futurity Trophy success at Doncaster later the same month.

He was 6/1 for the Derby after his Town Moor win, but has drifted throughout the winter to the 14/1 he was on Saturday morning before the Ambiente Friendly form boost saw him clipped in a couple of points.

Could it be that he has been slow to come to hand? Possibly so, but it could also be a case of out of sight out of mind and you could conclude that he’s the bet in the race right now given his price and the strength of his juvenile form.

We’ll hopefully find out in the Dante at York on Thursday, a race that so often clears up the Derby picture. Until then it remains a little blurry, for all that Ambiente Friendly has forced his way into the frame.

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