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Value Bet Tips: Thursday August 21
1pt win Timeforshowcasing in 1.50 York at 28/1 (bet365) - 25/1 General
1pt e.w. Myal in 3.00 York at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Purple Rainbow in 5.20 York at 14/1 (General)
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It could be a big day for David O’Meara on Thursday as Estrange takes on Aidan O’Brien’s dual Classic-winning three-year-old Minnie Hauk in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks.
It’s been a decade or so since O’Meara was regularly competing in major races around the world – in fact he memorably trained Group-race winners in Ireland, France and Canada across the one weekend in September 2015 – but in Estrange he and Cheveley Park seem to have a four-year-old filly well capable of mixing at the very highest level in the right sort of circumstances.
I’m not convinced conceding weight all round in a small field on good to firm ground at York would be quite that scenario, but it’s hoped she’s at least allowed to take her chance on the conditions and maybe she can give the Oaks winner a run for her money. It’ll be a pretty dull affair without her, put it that way.
Maths has never been a strong suit, personally, but I reckon if you back all of O’Meara’s five in the Clipper Handicap then you’re playing at slightly shorter odds than Estrange’s current price (4/1), so one way or another the trainer has a reasonable chance of landing this valuable handicap for a fourth time on day two as well.
This kind of mob-handed approach does become a bit of a minefield from a punter’s point of view, though, and picking one of the quintet is almost asking for trouble. Leadman is 5lb well-in following his close second at Newbury last weekend and does look the one under Danny Tudhope, but he’s been well found in the market and, when it comes to decision time, I’m willing to take on the O’Meara army with Steph Hollinshead’s MYAL.
Unraced at two, he was a huge improver in the second half of last season, and I’ve seen more than enough to suggest he’s taken another pretty major step up again this time around.
His Chester win over Never So Brave was admittedly a shade fortunate and the runner-up, who suffered traffic problems in the north west, duly took his revenge in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, but Myal did put in another sound effort at Royal Ascot, without quite strictly matching the Chester form on paper.
Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup outing last time represented a real step backwards, even though he probably wasn’t drawn brilliantly out towards the centre of the course that day, but it’s clear this horse is miles better on a turning track, having looked the part at Haydock on a couple of occasions and once around the right-hand bend at Carlisle as well this time last year, and if he was coming here straight from Ascot you could argue he’d be half his current price.
I like the fact he’s been given 40 days off since last month’s July Festival flop, presumably in a bid to freshen him up, and it’s also encouraging to see the yard has had a winner (12/1), a 40/1 second and 25/1 third from just seven starters already this month. They are punching a little above their weight which isn’t unusual for Hollinshead’s runners.
Stall 16 is a potential issue, of course it is, but Myal has enough early speed to effectively negate the problem quite swiftly, and if all goes to plan I think he could still prove to be quite fairly treated off a mark of 99.
The Sky Bet Lowther Stakes effectively hinges on how literally you take Royal Fixation’s neck second to the top prospect that is Venetian Sun in the Duchess of Cambridge last month.
Taken at face value then Ed Walker’s filly has the world at her feet but I’m not the only one who feels Venetian Sun was well below her true potential at Newmarket – including her trainer Karl Burke – and that makes Royal Fixation look a very skinny price ahead of this Group 2 test.
Barring the reopposing Duchess of Cambridge third Argentine Tango, who is very likeable herself pretty well exposed by this point, there are possible improvers everywhere you look in this line-up and I’ll take a bit of a flier on Charlie Johnston’s TIMEFORSHOWCASING.
Johnston was weighing up a shot at one of the nurseries at Goodwood for the unbeaten filly but must have been put off by the weather and I can see her surprising a few people in the second silks of Jaber Abdullah here despite being thrust into Group company for the first time.
She just looks so uncomplicated - and evidently well-bought at 15,000 guineas – having raced prominently when winning on debut at Chelmsford and making most of the running to defy the penalty in a Newbury novice last time, scoring with two and a half lengths to spare despite shifting a little bit left in the closing stages (replay below).
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Timeforshowcasing will be staying seven furlongs and beyond in the fullness of time but, from stall three under Billy Loughnane, I can see her giving this a good rattle before races like the Rockfel could come into the equation later in the year.
Archie Watson’s Tadej looks by some way the most likely winner of the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs, but the thought of backing anything around his sort of price in a 22-runner two-year-old race brings me out in an instant cold sweat.
Keep the power dry is the advice and, after the ITV team have gone off air, I’m having a few quid on PURPLE RAINBOW in the royal silks in the concluding British EBF Fillies’ Handicap.
Trained by William Haggas, she’s a mere maiden winner having broken through at the second time of asking on the all-weather during the winter, but I think she’s had excuses in three subsequent starts as it’s very hard to dictate matters at Ascot and the ground had completely gone for her when stepped up to 10 furlongs at Windsor last time out.
There’s no denying she’s bred for that sort of middle-distance trip but she does look a bit of an oddity in that regard (was entered over six furlongs at Newmarket on Friday), and I like the look of a drop back to seven furlongs with cheekpieces enlisted on this flat track.
She’s another who will need to bounce out from a double-figure draw (10) but she’s quite free-going in nature and there’s surely only one way Tom Marquand will look to ride her around York - and that’s allow her to bowl along.
Paddy Twomey’s Bonus Time is the obvious threat but she’s got to give the selection a full stone in weight so will need to be pretty smart.
Published at 1600 BST on 20/08/25
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