Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for York Ebor Festival
Matt Brocklebank previews the action from York on day one of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival and highlights his big-priced fancies.
- The long-standing Value Bet column is 137.4pts in profit (staked 209pts) so far in 2022
- Winners this year include 50/1 Noble Yeats in the Grand National and Desert Crown at 25/1 (antepost) in the Derby
- Lord Riddiford (14/1) and Prairie Falcon (14/1) were both tipped at last month's Qatar Goodwood Festival
Value Bet tips: Wednesday August 17
1pt win Gis A Sub in 1.50 York at 33/1 (Bet365)
1pt win El Bodegon in 3.00 York at 14/1 (Bet365)
1pt win Red Verdon in 4.10 York at 20/1 (bet365)
No real need to take on Baaeed
The opening afternoon of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival offers up a banquet of punting opportunities, on top of the small matter of the world’s best Flat horse, Baaeed, looking to extend his career record to 10 wins from 10 starts in the Juddmonte International Stakes.
The four-year-old’s rise to stardom has been a truly remarkable story given he only made his debut last June, and although there were one or two low-key grumblings after his workmanlike win in last month’s Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, this is unquestionably his chance to shine now tackling 10 furlongs for the first time at York.
As long as Mishriff turns up in peak form, the 2021 hero should in theory give the odds-on favourite a proper race, although sluggish starts have continued to blight John and Thady Gosden’s horse since last year’s Champion Stakes at Ascot, and his recent King George performance was a long way below the one he produced en route to winning here 12 months ago.
If there’s to be a shock, Baaeed’s stablemate Dubai Honour could be the one to provide it as he simply looked ring-rusty when nosed out of it by Sir Busker in the Sky Bet York Stakes. Dubai Honour can safely be expected to leave that effort in a slowly-run affair well behind, though may be more of a betting proposition back in the Champion Stakes at Ascot with another run under his belt.
Doyle from the front in Voltigeur heat?
There are more appealing betting races elsewhere on the card and EL BODEGON, the highest-rated horse in the field on official figures, is worth a dart in the Group Two Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes.
He was a Group One winner in France as a two-year-old but missed his intended comeback run in the Prix Greffulhe after a setback in the spring and was then kicked into touch by Desert Crown and company when finally reappearing in the Dante here in May.
However, there have been way more positives to take from his next two starts – admittedly back in France in softer conditions – when runner-up to subsequent Coral-Eclipse winner Vadeni in the Prix du Jockey Club and third behind Arc-bound Onesto in the Grand Prix de Paris.
If the overnight showers arrive that will be a boost but watering should have taken the sting out of the ground for day one at York and James Ferguson's colt could be able to dominate this from the front. The booking of Hollie Doyle certainly suggests he’ll be asked to make the running and if not pestered too heavily by Ryan Moore on Aikhal – who is up to 12 furlongs for the first time – he may be able to slip the field.
El Bodegon has a bit of class about him and, having really come to the fore at the end of last season, perhaps this is just his time of year.
Ryan sprinter the value call in opener
Kevin Ryan’s GIS A SUB looks potentially quite interesting at a wild price in the opening Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap, a race the same yard won back-to-back with Bogart and Blaine in 2013 and 2014.
Both those horses had run exceptionally well at this meeting as juveniles earlier in their career, Bogart landing the big sales race and Blaine winning the Gimcrack before taking this pot a couple of years down the line.
Gis A Sub didn’t win the Gimcrack but he ran a blinder in defeat when second to Lusail in that Group Two contest 12 months ago, and he now goes handicapping for the very first time off a dangerous-looking mark of 99.
His rating has slid from 106 at the start of the season on account of being well held at Hamilton, Haydock and Ascot, but he was thrown in at the deep end in the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal meeting when last seen and did show a lot more zest in the first-time blinkers than he had on his first couple of outings this year - leading until halfway before being understandably outclassed.
He's since been gelded and given plenty of time off, both of which could help the horse rediscover some of his juvenile form, and Ryan has switched the headgear for cheekpieces in an attempt to try and find that sweet spot between being a little too lit up (as at Ascot), and no longer looking particularly interested in the game. Here's hoping it all comes together for him here on just the ninth start of his life.
Age no barrier in staying handicap
The recent return of cheekpieces has definitely had a positive effect on veteran RED VERDON and he’s the other one on Wednesday that looks over-priced in the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap.
The nine-year-old has given the Ed Dunlop yard some memorable days over the years and he’s obviously past his very best now, but it’s worth recalling he was still winning at Listed level last summer, after which he was forced back into Group company.
He’s finally been given a chance by the handicapper again this term, going close off a mark of 104 at Wolverhampton in April and looking on good terms with himself when beaten a neck at Beverley on his penultimate start.
He backed that up with a decent effort on Shergar Cup day at Ascot last time, getting caught in a pocket behind weakening rivals before staying on to be beaten just two and a half lengths.
He’s back down to a mark of 97 again here and, with Tom Marquand in for the ride, looks well capable of troubling the young guns in this line-up.
Published at 1300 BST on 16/08/22
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