It's Sky Bet Ebor day at York on Saturday and Matt Brocklebank looks to unearth the pick of the value on a quality card.
Value Bet tips: Saturday August 20
1pt win Inverness in 2.25 York at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Euchen Glen in 3.35 York at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Silver Samurai in 4.10 York at 12/1 (General)
Already advised:
The Sky Bet Ebor dominates the punting landscape on Saturday and despite the line-up featuring plenty of unexposed four-year-olds who could be potentially well handicapped, punters have it in black and white that EUCHEN GLEN is ahead of his mark.
Jim Goldie’s veteran is officially well-in to the tune of 3lb on the back of a massively eyecatching run in third over this mile and three-quarter trip at Goodwood last month.
Still travelling strongly when repeatedly denied a clear run from the two-furlong marker, he flew home to be beaten just over a length by Trawlerman. That was his best run of the season but he’d hinted at something similar when third in the Ebor trial at York in June, that day finishing just half a length - off level weights - behind John Leeper, from whom he receives 5lb this weekend.
Euchen Glen has plenty more strong course form to his name too, including a fine fifth in the Ebor two years ago. He could manage only 11th behind Sonnyboyliston here 12 months ago but that came off a lofty rating of 116, a full stone more than his current perch.
He’s versatile in terms of ground, trip and tactics, has a low draw to work with in stall two if Paul Mulrennan want to try and beat some of the early traffic, and is clearly on great terms with himself again right now. I’m keen to have the old boy on side at the odds.
Joint top-weight Enemy was the horse I wanted to be with going into his prep run and although the Goodwood Cup didn’t pan out, the contrasting tempo of an Ebor is surely going to suit him much better.
His Musselburgh handicap (1m6f) win at the start of the season was really striking, after which he was a bit unlucky not to win the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot. A return to that sort of form would give him fair claims of hitting the frame, at least, and Ian Williams - one of the best target trainers on the staying handicap scene - has no doubt had this Saturday in mind for a while now.
I’ll resist doubling down on the ex-Gosden/French five-year-old, but might be tempted back in if easing out to 20/1-plus on the day.
INVERNESS can land the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap for trainer Charlie Hills.
He got caught behind a couple of weakening rivals at the cut-away in the big 12-furlong Goodwood handicap won by Secret State, form that one franked here on Wednesday when second to Deauville Legend in the Great Voltigeur.
Inverness was finding loads for pressure in the closing stages, running straight and true, certainly in comparison to the winner, and looks likely to appreciate a step back up to this longer trip.
He’d competed over a mile and three-quarters for the first time at Ascot in early-July when a small field and having to race widest of all into the home straight both appeared to count against him.
The son of Highland Reel still wasn’t beaten far that day, despite also getting a little warm beforehand and racing keenly through the first two furlongs, and he smacks of a colt with plenty more to offer when there’s an emphasis on stamina.
He wouldn’t want too many localised showers as he’s a good mover who enjoys top of the ground, but the forecast looks positive in that regard and the double-figure odds are more than fair.
Conditions are going to be lively enough in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes for Brad The Brief, who I’ve made the case for in next month’s Betfair Sprint Cup.
He’s gone well when fresh in the past and could possibly get away with the ground back up to seven furlongs but it’s a tight enough race and hopefully he can tee up a big run in what will likely be more suitably conditions at Haydock.
Sky Bet Constantine Handicap contender SILVER SAMURI has had a good seasonal already and might not be done with just yet.
He went into the Wokingham on a real roll and just 15/2 after wins at Newbury and Haydock during the month of May, but the draw was dead against him at Ascot and I can excuse his effort here last month too as he fluffed the start and found himself almost detached after a furlong.
The grey could be spotted running on well without being unduly punished in the saddle, beaten just two and a half lengths by Gale Force Maya (winner since) at the line, and he’s been dropped a pound in the weights which may prove hasty.
He was a staying-on second over seven furlongs at this track last September but is quicker model this time around and the looks to have been a little kinder this weekend (stall four).
Published at 1600 BST on 19/08/22
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