Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Newmarket and York
Thundering features among our man's selections as he picks out the best value among ITV4's 10 races on Friday.
Value Bet tips: Friday October 7
1pt win Tammani in 2.40 York at 33/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes) - minimum 25/1
1pt win A La Francaise in 3.50 York at 16/1 (General) - take no lower
1pt win Thundering in 4.10 Newmarket at 16/1 (General) - minimum 12/1
No need to play in Friday feature
The clue is in the title when it comes to Newmarket’s Dubai Future Champions Festival, but five juvenile races on the HQ card on Friday doesn’t really set the betting pulse racing, unfortunately.
Three of those make the ITV4 programme, headlined by the bet365 Fillies’ Mile, and Commissioning will presumably be the cornerstone for some punters as she looks to make it three from three after an easy win in the Rockfel here last month.
I’ve no strong desire to take on John and Thady Gosden’s odds-on shot, although they’ve been watering to maintain good ground on the Rowley Mile this week and the daughter of Kingman probably wouldn’t want any heavy showers to hit the track (nothing too worrying in the forecast, admittedly).
I’ll skip to the chase and focus on the main punting race – the highly valuable bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap, for three-year-olds only.
The first port of call - almost inevitably - was the Charlie Appleby-trained quartet, seemingly headed by First Ruler.
The issue I have with him is that he’s not a cast-iron stayer from what we saw in the closing stages when stepped up to this trip for the first time at Ascot a month ago. Perhaps he’ll improve for that first run since July, but he’s also been nudged up a pound in the weights so he’ll have to come on quite a bit to go two better in this deeper race.
Stable companion Wild Crusade is of some interest at a price in the first-time blinkers (Appleby 13-45 when first applying that particular headgear) as he evidently responded well when initially fitted with cheekpieces at Kempton back in January.
He’s been weakening quite alarmingly late on in his last couple of starts, though, while Cosmic Desert and Al Nafir are probably about right at current odds.
Ryan runner coming to the boil
One who could easily be a fair bit shorter come the off is Kevin Ryan’s THUNDERING and I think he’s worth a bet at 14/1 or above.
His level of form since returning to action in early-April has been progressing nicely, including solid efforts behind the likes of Savvy Victory and Leger winner Eldar Eldarov earlier on, and a handicap victory over subsequent winner Pons Aelius at Newcastle in June.
He ran a massive race at York’s Ebor Festival when coming from an impossible position to end up second to Farhan, and was again doing some excellent late work on ground a bit quicker than ideal over a mile and three-quarters at Haydock last time.
There’s little doubt he can win more races despite his mark creeping into the low-90s and any more rain that falls will help the son of Night Of Thunder, as will the forecast strong pace. Kevin Stott returning to the saddle for the first time since last successful is another obvious plus.
David O’Meara is clearly the man to follow in mile handicaps at York and he’s got three runners in the William Hill Autumn Mile Handicap, including Young Fire who featured in this column a couple of starts ago before his good effort in third behind Wanees at Haydock.
He’s since run no sort of race in an amateur riders’ event at Ascot last Friday but a rapid return to form under Jason Watson here would come as no shock, especially as there’s more rain forecast on the Knavesmire than down south, which will play to his strengths.
He’s not being missed in the betting, though, nor is well-backed stablemate Bopedro, but supposed third-string TAMMANI is worth consideration too and he looks the bet at the odds.
A Listed winner in his youth for William Haggas, he joined O’Meara last summer after a brief spell in France and didn’t cut any ice initially having been running off marks in the high-90s. The assessor relented at the start of this season and, following a promising fourth over seven furlongs at the Dante meeting in May, he won with a bit to spare at Redcar from a mark of 83 the following month.
The five-year-old has been sparingly campaigned since then but the fact he was a non-runner on account of the quick ground at Haydock last month gives a pretty good indication as to why, and there’s a chance he’s been kept fresh with a relatively busy autumn campaign in mind.
He’s slipped right back to a mark of 87 following the three no-shows since his summer success and also has the very capable Mark Winn claiming 5lb to help ease the weight even further.
Winn is 1-3 so far at York so won’t be lacking in confidence despite his inexperience and he’s got a good draw to work with as well, emerging from stall two – three of the past five winners of this race have come from gates four or five, including the O’Meara-trained 14/1 shot Shelir 12 months ago.
'Wrong' at the weights, but right sort of profile
I’ll be siding with another claiming rider in the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed as Amie Waugh (1-7 at York so far) looks an astute booking for A LA FRANCAISE, with her 5lb allowance helping negate the fact Jim Goldie’s chestnut is 4lb out of the weights.
This is unquestionably a step up in grade for A La Francaise but it was hard not to be impressed with the way she opened her account – albeit at the 11th time of asking – in a mile and three-furlong handicap on soft-ish ground at Hamilton last month (Timeform called it good).
That win had been coming too as she ran an eyecatching race at one of Southwell’s Racing League fixtures in September, coming from off the pace, making her challenge away from the front two and ultimately finishing best to be beaten only a length and a half.
She was running from out of the handicap that day too so there’s a sense she’s probably ahead of the assessor anyway, and a further step up in distance could unlock another sizeable chunk of improvement (well-related dam is a half-sister to a two-mile winner).
Stall four should mean she’s not miles back in the early stages and while I’ve a huge amount of respect for Double Cherry and those who finished behind him in the controversial, bunched finish at Haydock a fortnight ago, A La Francaise is the one being overlooked in the market here.
Jumping makes a welcome return to our ITV screen with Chepstow’s veterans’ handicap chase and the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle.
Quid Pro Quo has been all the rage for the latter and Dan Skelton’s bumper winner could have a bit more boot than Deeper Blue and Outlaw Peter, though Paul Nicholls’ horse is unlikely to be short on fitness and does look quite an interesting one at the prices given he’s technically got nearly 20lb to find with the principals on pure form terms.
Published at 1500 BST on 06/10/22
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
