Matt Brocklebank, who has tipped two 14/1 winners already this week, previews the fourth day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and reckons Charlie and Mark Johnston could land the big handicap.
Value Bet tips: Friday July 29
1pt e.w. Austrian Theory in 3.00 Goodwood at 25/1 (William Hill, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Caturra in 3.35 Goodwood at 16/1 (Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Gaallib in 4.45 Goodwood at 12/1 (General)
Theory makes sense under penalty
Another six cracking betting races served up on ITV from Goodwood on Friday and none more appealing than the 20-runner Coral Golden Mile Handicap.
My first port of call was the eyecatching return of Positive for trainer Clive Cox, the horse having not been seen in public since his three-year-old campaign was presumably cut short in August 2020.
There’s no question he’s well handicapped from a mark of 105 on some of his form, including a Group Three defeat of subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Kameko as a juvenile, but whether any of the ability remains intact is a real guessing game.
Softer going could easily have lured me into a bet on David O’Meara’s Young Fire or even busy stablemate Rhoscolyn, who has a good course record and now gets the benefit of the excellent Harry Davies claiming 5lb, but on the prevailing ground I can’t let three-year-old AUSTRIAN THEORY go unbacked.
Representing Charlie and Mark Johnston, he’s officially 2lb well-in under his 3lb penalty for winning in gutsy fashion from subsequent York scorer Ghaly at Hamilton on June 28, and he’s since posted another excellent effort when a close third to the well-treated Koy Koy in a five-runner affair that turned into a bit of a sprint for the line at Newmarket.
He should relish the big-field scenario and guaranteed end-to-end gallop here, returning to a course at which he was third behind Angel Bleu in the 2021 Vintage Stakes on his only previous visit, and connections have surely been hoping to get him into this line-up for a while.
He’s taken some time to find his feet this season having run three times in Listed company at the start of the year, but he is clearly in great form at present and looks open to bags of further improvement for his in-form team.
Stall 12 will hold no fears for Franny Norton, who will look to go forward, and although the 6lb well-in Noble Dynasty is a far more likely winner, he’s priced accordingly whereas Austrian Theory is around 20/1 with a couple of firms offering seven places which looks generous.
Cox to eke improvement from three-year-old
With no Battaash, who won the race four times on the bounce before disappointing favourite-backers here 12 months ago, we’re looking at an open edition of the King George Qatar Stakes.
The progressive Mitbaahy finds himself right among the market leaders and there’s a fair case to be made for him being an unlucky loser when beaten a neck by Raasel at Sandown earlier in the month. However, Raasel is a pound better off on this occasion and I’m not totally sure Mick Appleby’s charge won’t uphold the form.
Either way, if Mitbaahy can be strongly fancied then CATURRA looks to represent a spot of each-way value having been beaten just a length and three-quarters when conceding Roger Varian’s horse a 5lb Listed penalty in the Scurry Stakes on his penultimate start.
They race off level weights here and while Caturra must bounce straight back following a low-key effort behind Royal Aclaim at York last time, I can excuse him one bad run there as he’d been quite consistent prior to that, including a fair fifth to El Caballo in a good renewal of the Sandy Lane over six furlongs at Haydock.
He was unsuited by the going (good to soft) when last of seven in last year’s six-furlong Richmond Stakes at this meeting and duly went on to win the Group Two Flying Childers on quicker ground at Doncaster the following month.
The son of Mehmas signed off last year with another creditable effort when beaten a length and a half by Perfect Power in the Middle Park and I’m still hopeful sprint master Cox will eke a little more out of the horse this season.
The trainer reaches for cheekpieces here and he’s got quite a decent 4-16 25% strike-rate when adding first-time pieces in five-furlong sprints over the years, while Tom Marquand is in to do the light weight (1-3 for the yard this year) so at 16/1 I’m happy to take a chance Caturra puts his best foot forward again.
Go for Hannon's Gaallib in nursery
The closest I came to a bet in the opening Coral Goodwood Handicap was Baasem who won by 14 lengths at Doncaster the last time he competed in a Flat handicap from a mark of 80.
However, that came back in August 2019 and he’s only raced once since the end of 2020, finishing a well-held second on his hurdling debut at Aintree this May.
I’m not sure he’ll stay this far either so he’s probably one to monitor for the time being, though I may consider a tiny-stakes, win-only bet on the exchanges if trading at ludicrous odds come the off.
Richard Hannon’s Ebor entry Fancy Man might be the one to give hot favourite Rebel’s Romance most to think about in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes but he’s not quite a big enough price to tempt me in, particularly as he’s generally done his best work on softer ground.
The Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Nursery Handicap looks a good betting heat, though, and although the stalls are positioned on the stands’ side, low-drawn horses have generally done well in this race over the years.
Proven pace-setters Jungle Fever and Explicit break from one and three respectively and that could tee things up beautifully for the Hannon-trained GAALLIB in stall two.
Only time will tell whether or not he was a touch flattered to win so readily having stuck tight to the near-side rail at Nottingham earlier this month, but he’s clearly making major strides each time he’s hit the racetrack and there looks to be loads more to come given the way he did it last time.
An opening mark of 85 looks more than manageable and it’s encouraging to see how well the stable’s juveniles have been going here already this week.
Published at 1600 BST on 28/07/22
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