Horse Racing Tips: Best value bets for Doncaster St Leger Festival on Thursday

Value Bet tips: Thursday September 8

1pt win Pjanoo in 2.00 Doncaster at 40/1 (General)

1pt win Harrow in 3.45 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Reasons to be positive about Yesyes

After a pretty limp, non-televised opening day, the St Leger Festival steadily grinds into gear on Thursday though it’s obviously disappointing that last year’s Derby winner Adayar has only a stablemate and one other to beat on his return to action in the Hilton Garden Inn Doncaster Conditions Stakes.

We’re not going to learn anything new about him here, other than that he’s fit and well after seemingly taking an age to come to hand and really begin to please trainer Charlie Appleby in his homework. In fact, anything other than a comfortable victory is likely to go down as a disappointment, so it’s not like there’s any real temptation to try and jump the gun by backing him for an Arc or Champion Stakes in advance either.

On the topic of Champions Day, last year’s Fillies & Mares Stakes winner Eshaada preps for a likely return to Ascot next month in the Coral Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes, although I’m not blown away by her credentials when it comes to improving for this new (extended 1m6f) trip.

Yesyes gets the distance well, though, and having returned from 301 days away with a promising fourth – only beaten a length and a half in a strangely-run race – in the Lillie Langtry, Ralph Beckett’s filly could be the one to side with here.

She’s strictly got a bit of ground to find with Urban Artist on the Goodwood form, but I’d expect her to find sufficient improvement and build on last year’s effort when third to Free Wind in this race.

Tudhope booking catches the eye

She’s not a great betting proposition around 4/1, however, and I’d rather have a dart in the Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes in which Gimcrack third Cold Case bids to get back to winning ways.

His official mark went from 89 to 103 on the back of his five-length defeat behind Noble Style and, providing he repeats it, there isn’t much to put anyone off, other than his relatively skinny price of course, as he looks likely to handle any further easing of the ground as well.

But in a field of unexposed two-year-olds I’d always prefer to take a chance on something at longer odds and Richard Spencer’s supposed second-string PJANOO is worth backing to small stakes.

His half-sister Lambeth Walk was a decent juvenile a couple of years ago and the dam, Cockney Dancer (by Phil Cunningham’s 2007 Guineas hero Cockney Rebel), is a half-sister to the dam of Mohaather, Roodeye.

I’m certain this Muhaarar colt has inherited at least a fraction of the family class, he showed as much with a promising second to subsequent Group Two winner Isaac Shelby on his Newbury debut at the end of May, and although he hasn’t kicked on quite as hoped in two subsequent starts, there’s surely much more to come when the penny fully drops.

The Ayr run second time out was a bit of a let-down, admittedly, but he proved it wrong with a fair sixth in the Convivial Maiden at York last time. Laugh A Minute won this contest on the back of being beaten in the same Ebor Festival race, and the attractive Pjanoo really caught the eye with how he travelled before possibly not letting himself down on the quick ground that day (replay below).

Something may just be holding him back (physically or mentally) but if it’s simply a case of needing a little more give in the ground – it was good to soft for his Newbury run earlier in the year – then everything could click into place here given the showery forecast.

Danny Tudhope is obviously a very encouraging booking too (Jason Hart rides stablemate Waiting All Night) as he’s won three times from just four rides for the yard all told, and he’s drawn close to the wing in 14, with one of the main pace angles in the race, Hiatus, breaking from just inside in stall 13.

Pjanoo is currently one of the lowest-rated horses in the field but it’s rarely so simple in races of this nature and he looks over-priced on potential.

Back Balding runner back from layoff

I’ll leave the opening British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Carrie Red’ Fillies’ Nursery Handicap alone as I won’t be having a bet – the same goes for the Jump Jockeys Derby at Epsom for what it’s worth - but I’m very tempted by HARROW returning fresh from a break in the Cazoo Handicap on Town Moor.

His form looks to have crashed and burnt since winning the sales race on this card for Balding and Oisin Murphy 12 months ago, but I’m not going to take such a drastic view and would point to the highly creditable all-weather efforts in the spring for evidence that he has trained on as a three-year-old.

You’ve got to be a lot more forgiving when it comes to his three subsequent runs back on turf but the 10 furlongs was too far at Chester, and he’s seemingly had too much on his plate in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown and the Britannia at Royal Ascot.

The cheekpieces tried last time have been dispensed with and the son of El Kabeir resumes after 83 days away having been gelded in the interim.

Connections are presumably hoping the ‘refresh’ button works its magic and if he’s going to bounce back at all on turf this term I can certainly see it being at a track he clearly likes, back over a more favourable distance, and off a much-reduced mark of 93 (began the year rated 103).

There’s no finer man than Andrea Atzeni when it comes to riding this course too, and although Harrow probably wouldn’t want the ground to get too testing, that looks factored into his price at 12/1 with a few firms.

The other one I closely considered against warm favourite Zainalarab here was Richard Fahey’s Admiral D, but I’m beginning to think he’s going to remain a source of frustration for his backers having once again shaped a good bit better than the bare result when seventh of 13 at Thirsk last time.

There’s no doubt he’s talented, but perhaps he’ll need to slip down the weights a bit, and go back to six furlongs, before being able to finally get his head in front for his new connections.

Published at 1445 BST on 07/09/22

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