Andrew Asquith is in the Value Bet hot seat this week and he has two bets at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Andrew Asquith Value Bet: Friday December 26
1pt win Jasmine Bliss in the 12:45 Kempton at 11/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, 888sport)
1pt win The Jukebox Man in the 14:30 Kempton at 13/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral, 6/1 General)
The Ladbrokes King George VI Chase looks a proper humdinger of a renewal at Kempton on Boxing Day, the best since 2015 when Cue Card and Vautour had an all out battle to the line if you calculate the average on pre-race Timeform ratings.
You can make a case for most of the eight-strong field and it should be a real highlight for racing fans on Boxing Day. I’ve long been a fan of THE JUKEBOX MAN, particularly with this race in mind.
He looked a novice right out of the top drawer when making a winning start over fences in the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase at Newbury last season and strengthened the opinion that he could be one of the best in the division when following up in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over this course and distance on this card 12 months ago.
Admittedly, it wasn’t a vintage renewal of that Grade 1 for novices, and The Jukebox Man didn’t have to improve on his Newbury form, but it was the manner of his success which was striking, tanking through what was a modestly-run event, and his jumping really was a sight to behold.
Unfortunately, a setback curtailed the remainder of his novice campaign, but he confirmed himself in rude health when making a winning return from nearly a year off at Haydock last month.
You couldn’t have asked much more of him that day, very well supported and his backers never had a worry, again jumping boldly from the front back down in trip, and value for much more than the official margin implies.
He was allowed to set steady fractions, so the form can’t be rated too highly, but again it was the ease in which he got the job done, and Iroko gave that form a timely boost at Ascot last weekend. The Jukebox Man is in a much hotter environment now, taking on a couple of top-class Irish challengers in Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior, and not to forgot equally exciting second-season chaser Jango Baie – it will really test his mettle.
Il Est Francais may not let him have all of his own way in front, but that rival arrives with questions to answer, and The Jukebox Man showed at this track last year he’s more than happy taking a lead. Jumping is the name of the game, and I’d argue he’s the best of these in that department, while we have seen time and time again, once you get into a good rhythm round Kempton, particularly on a sound surface, horses can be hard to pass.
I’d expect him to lead or be very close to it and he’s reportedly done very well since Haydock. There could be a bundle of further improvement yet to come from this exciting seven-year-old.
The opening ‘Get Your Ladbrokes Free Kempton Bet’ Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day looks very interesting and Noble Park looks a worthy favourite given he’s proved a different proposition since sent chasing.
Indeed, he’s won both of his starts in this sphere, very impressively at Lingfield last time too when beating a next-time-out winner by 24 lengths in a race which also produced a good timefigure.
A subsequent 11lb rise is warranted and he’s sure to launch another bold bid, but if there is a potential banana skin in the field it is the Harry Derham-trained JASMINE BLISS, who is making her chase debut.
She progressed well in bumpers and also as a novice hurdler last season, but she is all over a chaser on looks – she’s a lengthy, good-looking mare – and she has the potential to take her form to new heights in this sphere.
Jasmine Bliss’ best performance so far came when winning at Southwell last season and she looked a natural faced with brush hurdles for the first time, the style in which she came right away from her main market rival in the home straight particularly taking having jumped and travelled superbly well.
She was strong in the market on the back of that performance for the well-established mares’ novices’ hurdle series final at Newbury when last seen, but for whatever reason she wasn’t in the same form.
Jasmine Bliss typically travelled and jumped well for three quarters of the race, but she didn’t have the same finishing effort as she quickly weakened out of proceedings approaching the last. The fact that she had beaten the runner-up that day so convincingly at Southwell the time before tells you that everything may not have been right with her on the day.
I’m willing to ignore that run and I still think she’s a very exciting prospect now switching to fences. Admittedly, this is a deep race for her to be making her debut in, but she represents a yard who will have left no stone unturned, unlikely to be lacking for fitness – Harry Derham has a 23% strike rate with horses returning from 250 days or more off the track – and I think she’s potentially very well handicapped.
Preview posted at 1100 GMT on 24/12/2025
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