Our flagship racing tipster heads into Royal Ascot in excellent form and has three day one bets to consider.
Recent Value Bet winners: Desert Crown (25/1 antepost), Swilcan Bridge (14/1, 20p R4), Tees Spirit (12/1) - column over 140 points in profit for 2022
Value Bet Royal Ascot tips: Tuesday June 14
1pt win Tis Marvellous ‘without Nature Strip’ in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 33/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Make My Day in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 20/1 (William Hill, Betfair, bet365)
1pt win Harrovian in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
More fun in the sun for Frankie
Frankie Dettori still rules the roost when it comes to executing a textbook ride around Ascot and the great jockey has a big chance of adding to his outstanding Royal meeting tally aboard HARROVIAN in Tuesday’s Wolferton Stakes.
Remarkably, given his connections and the fact he’s been rated 100-plus for a couple of years now, this will be Harrovian’s Ascot debut and punters obviously need to take it on trust that the six-year-old gelding will cope well enough with the idiosyncratic nature of the track.
Stall four over this 10-furlong trip will definitely help, though, and the horse holds excellent claims if running up to his mark on these terms, given he gets 3lb from the five penalised Listed winners in the field.
Harrovian came within half a length of having to carry that same penalty himself, having been second only to Group One-winning Pyledriver at Lingfield in November, a performance that prompted connections to campaign him in classy company out in Saudi Arabia and Dubai earlier this year.
He ran well on the first occasion too, finishing a close fourth in a Group Three on quick ground at Riyadh, while we can excuse him the relatively limp effort when last behind owner/stablemate Lord North in the Group One Dubai Turf when last seen on March 26.
Freshened up, dropped in class and resuming with the John and Thady Gosden yard very much cooking on gas (39% strike-rate in last fortnight), Harrovian would be a legitimate favourite here on best form and has conditions to suit. He should be backed accordingly.
Big effort expected from Ulysses
Dettori is also possibly aboard the best value alternative to short-priced market leader Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes in the shape of Mighty Ulysses.
The Italian will need every ounce of his fabled track craft to win this from stall 12, though, and it’s enough to stop me putting him up as a bet, despite Kieren Fallon pulling it off from box 15 on Most Improved in this race in 2012.
I’ve clearly nothing wildly against Coroebus, who did the column a favour in the Guineas, but all his form is at Newmarket (July Course and Rowley Mile) and whipping around a sharp bend for the first time in public is going to pose a new challenge. He’d be harder to oppose if drifting out to evens or odds-against, but at current prices he makes no appeal.
Mighty Ulysses doesn’t have a typical St James’s Palace profile, though trainer John Gosden did parachute Without Parole in here via a Yarmouth novice and Sandown Listed race when successful in 2018, and this colt was unquestionably the best horse in last month’s Silver Bowl Handicap, form that was well advertised by the third Outgate winning readily off the same mark at Chester on Saturday.
It was a massive effort from the runner-up at Haydock, who had previously hacked up in a Newmarket novice from Devoted Poet (chinned in a Nottingham maiden since) and First Ruler (winner of a 20-runner Doncaster novice since), the HQ win coming on the back of a failed Classic sighter when not seeing out the trip in the 10-furlong Blue Riband Trial at Epsom.
They’ve clearly found the three-year-old’s right distance – for now at least – and his untapped upside is there for all to see. If he eases back out to 16s (well backed throughout Monday) there’s certainly a case to be made if you’re willing to swallow the fact he could get a wide/tricky trip.
Marvellous course record stands out
A drop of rain may have drawn me into a bet on Clive Cox’s Haydock debut winner Scholarship in the Coventry Stakes but that isn’t happening, while the opening Queen Anne is very much best left to Baaeed who should get the party started in resounding fashion.
The overseas runners have garnered all the attention in the build-up to the King’s Stand Stakes and I can comfortably block out the noise regarding Breeders’ Cup hero Golden Pal, who has been beaten both times he’s visited the UK – albeit only narrowly on this stage in the Nolfolk a couple of years ago.
I’ve more time for the flying Aussie Nature Strip who looks likely to handle the stiff finish as well as anything if bringing his A-game. He could be a little bit off it and still win this, in truth, but I’ll take him out of the equation altogether and back TIS MARVELLOUS in the market ‘without Nature Strip’.
Cox’s remarkable ability to extract improvement from sprinters can arguably be summed up by this horse, who was fourth to Battaash in the 2020 King’s Stand and posted a career-best effort when winning a Listed race over course and distance in October on his final start as a seven-year-old last season.
Conceding weight to all bar one (Hurricane Ivor who finished last), Tis Marvellous ran on strongly to beat Minzaal, Dakota Gold and Keep Busy who are all respectable performers, on these shores at least.
That took his track and trip record to four wins from eight starts so whereas the major question mark around the favourites is whether or not they’ll handle the venue, this is very much a home game for the selection.
He’s won on good to firm, good, good to soft and soft so ground isn’t a worry, he’s guaranteed to get a strong gallop at which to be aimed, and can be backed at 33/1 in a place without the potential world-beater from Down Under.
Moore the merrier in Ascot Stakes
The handicapper I’m most keen to back on Tuesday is the Gary Moore-trained MAKE MY DAY under Rhys Clutterbuck in the Ascot Stakes.
He won his maiden at Goodwood for John Gosden wearing first-time cheekpieces in 2019 before picking up a couple of handicaps for Ralph Beckett and then being sold to go jumping (75,000 guineas).
He looks very well handicapped off a current NH mark of 104 but might be able to do some damage in this code over the summer first, having warmed up for this with a couple of eyecatching runner-up efforts over two miles.
The first of them came at Ascot when denied a clear run and finding only the progressive Super Superjack too good (subsequent winner back in third), then he went to Goodwood and again got in a bit of trouble when it mattered most.
He wasn’t an unlucky loser but was definitely short of running room late on and was beaten just three-quarters of a length. He gets another shot off the same mark here and the son of Galileo could absolutely relish a first crack at a marathon trip on drying ground.
Perhaps even more crucially, the cheekpieces are back for the first time since he joined the in-form Moore, which looks a statement of intent.
No real urge to oppose Cleveland
An outsider won the 2021 Copper Horse Stakes and if there’s to be a boilover this year then Cleveland will have to take a backwards step as it looks like he’s not been too harshly treated at all for his Chester Cup win.
Raised just 5lb after seeming to win in spite of the track, the lightly-raced son of Camelot is going to be tough to beat if handling the fastest ground he’s encountered in his career to date.
It’s beside the point now as he failed to make the cut as third reserve, but recent course fifth Gold Maze was on the radar for this event so it’s hoped he might get into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes on Friday instead.
Published at 1500 BST on 13/06/22
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
