Horse racing analysis | In-form trainers to follow
Which trainers hit the ground running in May and who was a bit slower out of the blocks? Adam Houghton highlights a few interesting angles which could be worth considering in the coming weeks
*Statistics based on results up to and including Friday 26 May
All change in just a few weeks for Weld
Rewind the clock to the very start of May and the poor form of the Dermot Weld yard was one of the stones being thrown at champion two-year-old filly Tahiyra and her prospects of Classic glory in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. It had certainly been a difficult run for Weld, who went 180 days and 38 runners without a winner in between the victories of Duke de Sessa at Leopardstown (November 6, 2022) and Mashia at Naas (May 6, 2023).
Three weeks on from Mashia’s win and it’s fair to say that nobody will be using the stable form as a reason why Tahiyra can’t gain compensation for her narrow defeat at Newmarket in Sunday’s Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. Quite the opposite is true, in fact, and that reversal was a rare point of frustration for Weld as we near the end of what has otherwise been a May to remember, yielding seven winners from 28 runners at a 25% strike rate.
It’s certainly been an impressive turnaround and Weld’s performance in May compares favourably with that of most other Flat stables in Britain and Ireland. For context, out of the trainers who have saddled 10 or more runners this month, Weld is ranked joint-sixth by strike rate and third – behind only Adrian Nicholls (92.67%) and Daniel & Claire Kubler (82.35%) – by Timeform’s run-to-form percentage (82.14%).
As short as 2/1-on in the betting for the Irish 1000 Guineas, Tahyira seems likely to bring the month to a fitting conclusion for Weld, with one less stone to dodge and no Mawj to fight off compared to Newmarket.
Perrett yard proving the most lethal around
2023 has so far been a successful year for Amanda Perrett full stop – she has saddled 10 winners from 42 runners at a 24% strike rate – but May is the month in which things stepped up another gear altogether, both in terms of quality and quantity.
Rebel Territory has been the undoubted stable star and, having made a successful reappearance at last month’s Craven meeting at Newmarket, he then defied a 2-lb rise in the weights to follow up in the Victoria Cup at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, providing the yard with perhaps its biggest success since Lavender Blue won the Celebration Mile in 2021.
Perrett added a couple more wins to her tally with a double at Brighton on Tuesday and her record in May alone now stands at six winners from 15 runners. No other stable in Britain or Ireland can match the 40% strike rate they’ve been operating at in West Sussex since the start of the month, while a run-to-form percentage of 60% is solid, too, if not spectacular.
Elsewhere, William Muir & Chris Grassick (5/16, 31%) and Harry Eustace (8/27, 30%) also deserve plenty of credit given their excellent strike rates in recent weeks, especially Eustace who is now operating at 24% (12/49) for the season – just his third since taking out a licence.
Shoots of recovery for Harry and Roger Charlton
At the other end of the spectrum, Roger Charlton – who has shared the licence with son Harry since the start of 2022 – is now in his fourth decade as a trainer having sent out his first runners in 1990, so he’s probably experienced most things in his long and illustrious career. That said, it would be a surprise if he’s ever started a year as slowly as he has the current campaign.
The Charltons didn’t have to wait quite so long as Weld for a winner, but it was still a notable drought as the yard went 124 days and 52 runners without hitting the target between the wins of Man of Eden at Newcastle (January 20, 2023) and Greek Order at Sandown (May 25, 2023).
On an evening when returning heroes Hukum and Desert Crown stole the headlines with their duel in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, Greek Order’s win for the Charltons following their own spell in the wilderness might have gone under the radar somewhat, but it was least something to build on and they did so immediately when Zouzanna won at Haydock the following afternoon.
Even before that there had at least been signs that the winners were coming. For context, the Charltons have sent out a total of 31 runners in May and 17 of them have finished in the first four, while a run-to-form percentage of 61.29% – up from 46.15% in April – is also symptomatic of a yard starting to find its feet.
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