John Ingles is our man at Sha Tin for the Hong Kong International Races on Sunday and he pens his thoughts on the make-up of the four G1 races following the draw.
Longines Hong Kong Vase, HK$24million, 1m4f
With the news this morning that Shahryar, who’d looked Japan’s number one contender among their four entries, will have to miss the race after a veterinary examination detected a heart irregularity, that leaves nine runners for the Vase, the smallest field for any of the four races.
That, and the distance of the race, might imply that the draw ought not to be too much of a factor, though stats for the 29 renewals of the Vase tell a different story. Between them, stalls 1 and 2 have provided the winner only twice, compared with a total of nine winners from either stalls 3 or 4.
Aidan O’Brien, with a runner in each race, and who has arrived in Hong Kong in advance of Sunday’s meeting to oversee their preparations, was therefore on hand to draw his runners’ stall numbers in person.
On the face of it, the inside berth for his filly Warm Heart isn’t a good one as the Vase winner has never come from stall 1, though the same stall has the best record for placed horses with 11 runners finishing either second or third. Warm Heart races close to the pace in her races, including when going down by a neck to Inspiral in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last time, so Ryan Moore should be able to adopt a prominent pitch easily enough, especially as there is no obvious front runner in the line-up.
French gelding Junko (drawn 8) did make the running last time, when winning the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Bayern at Munich, though that was a four-runner affair and he’s normally ridden with more restraint.
Stalls 4 and 7 have provided the most Vase winners, with five apiece, and in the latter berth Japan’s unexposed three-year-old contender Lebensstil, who tries a mile and a half for the first time, is an interesting contender under Joao Moreira who earned the nickname ‘Magic Man’ from his four seasons as champion jockey in Hong Kong.
Longines Hong Kong Sprint, HK$26million, 6f
Highfield Princess was the first name to be picked in the draw for the Sprint, with her trainer John Quinn being present to land stall 9 in the ten-runner field. But while it might be imagined that an outside stall would be a disadvantage – the six-furlong start is halfway down Sha Tin’s back straight with the turn coming up after only a furlong and a half – the race stats suggest Sprint winners can come from anywhere.
In fact, stalls 1 to 5 have only provided the winner once each, whereas two winners have managed to win from widest of all in stall 14 from only seven occasions when there has been a maximum field.
In any case, Highfield Princess is a strong-travelling mare who should have the pace to adopt her usual handy position, though she didn’t go with her usual fluency despite going on to win the fourth Group 1 of her career in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time, since when connections have deliberately skipped the Breeders’ Cup to come here instead.
The likely speed in the race, though, is likely to come from Japan’s Jasper Krone (drawn 8) and the locally-trained Victor The Winner (stall 4), with Japan’s other runner Mad Cool (drawn 7) and last year’s runner-up Sight Success (stall 6 – which has been the most successful berth with three winners) among those who also race prominently.
As in the Vase, Aidan O’Brien drew stall 1 for his runner Aesop’s Fables though that could make Ryan Moore’s task a little tricky unless he has the early speed to hold his place on the rail.
Wellington, who came out of stall 10 in a maximum field when successful under Moore twelve months ago, has drawn stall 3 this time, while his successor as Hong Kong’s champion sprinter, Lucky Sweynesse, will be looking for a clearer run than he enjoyed last year, this time coming out of stall 5.
Longines Hong Kong Mile, HK$32million, 1m
There was an audible reaction from those present when Hong Kong’s three-time Horse of The Year Golden Sixty drew the widest berth – stall 14 – in what will be the largest field for any of the four International races. But he wouldn’t be the first to defy such a draw – Beauty Flash managed it in 2010 – and Golden Sixty’s connections can also take heart from the fact that three winners have emerged from stall 13.
Golden Sixty had a rare off day – he’s only been beaten four times in 29 races – in last year’s Hong Kong Mile when beaten a neck in his bid to win it for the third year running, but whether or not the draw is a complicating factor this time, he also has an absence since the end of April to overcome, beating the reopposing Beauty Joy and California Spangle in the Champions Mile when last seen.
It was California Spangle who overturned the odds-on Golden Sixty twelve months ago when making most of the running from stall 2 and he has another handy draw from which to adopt his usual tactics this time in stall 3 with Christophe Soumillon on board for the first time.
Andre Fabre’s representative Tribalist is another front runner and has enjoyed a most productive season, winning four of his five starts, but it remains to be seen if he can dictate in a larger and more competitive field than he’s been used to in France, especially as has only Golden Sixty wide of him in the stalls.
Stall 7 is statistically the place to be in the Mile, yielding four winners, with that spot going to the Japanese mare Divina. On the other hand, the locally-trained pair drawn in stall 1 (Encountered) and stall 5 (Beauty Eternal) would be the first from their respective draws to be successful, though both ran career-best races when successful last time.
Longines Hong Kong Cup, HK$36million, 10f
Most of the draw had been decided before the most anticipated name in the Cup finally came out, with last year’s impressive winner Romantic Warrior bagging stall 7, coincidentally the same berth he ran from last year. James McDonald had Romantic Warrior quickly out the gates last year to lead on the short run to the bend after the winning post, though going down the back straight he’d been settled in fifth off a strong pace set by Japan’s Panthalassa. That resulted in the race record being broken, with Romantic Warrior becoming the first Cup winner to dip under two minutes.
This year’s contest too looks likely to be truly run with Money Catcher, third last year after being unable to adopt his customary tactics in front, and Champion Dragon likely to be on the pace from an early stage from stalls 8 and 5 respectively.
Aidan O’Brien’s Luxembourg has been ridden more prominently of late, including when he set a very strong gallop under Seamie Heffernan before going down by half a length to stablemate Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes last time. That was right up with his win in the same race twelve months earlier in terms of form, though the draw could have been kinder to Ryan Moore here as he’ll have to make do with stall 10 in a field of eleven.
Unlike the other races, the Cup is a contest in which stall 1 runners have fared well, with four winners making it the most successful stall of all. That berth has gone to France’s Horizon Dore this time, those he’s invariably held up so might well forfeit that apparent advantage early on. On the other hand, no winner is yet to emerge from stall 2 which is where Japan’s Hishi Iguazu – the runner-up two years ago – will race from, while Champion Dragon’s berth, stall 5, has a similar winless record.
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