Haydock and Musselburgh Tips: Horse Racing Tips for Easter Saturday March 30
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Saturday's action and has a recommended bet for Haydock.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, March 30
1pt win Judicial Law in 2.40 Haydock at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Metier in 3.35 Musselburgh at 8/1 (ABANDONED)
O'Neills to lay down the Law
When Auguste Rodin, Liberty Island, Emily Upjohn and California Spangle are in action out in Dubai, it would be ludicrous to suggest all eyes are on the domestic fare from Haydock and Musselburgh, but I won’t be forcing bets at Meydan for the sake of the vast prize-money on offer.
The World Cup card will obviously be worth following, if only for future clues towards some of the major turf races in Britain, Ireland and elsewhere later in the year, but I don’t have enough of a handle on the international form to suggest anything being significantly out of line with market expectations. So will move on rapidly.
It’s all relative, of course, but the prize-money isn’t bad at Haydock for an end-of-season jumps card and there’s a fair pot up for grabs in the Unibet Middle Distance Veterans’ Handicap Chase Finale.
The problem here is that Tom George’s Champagne Mystery looks really solid and I’m struggling to form a case for anything against him. The closest I came was Francky Du Berlais off what looks a fair mark again (140), but he’d be much more effective on a sound surface and it’s going to be pretty testing.
Bottomless ground would have to be a small concern for JUDICIAL LAW in the New Racing TV App Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle too, but he’s a tough customer all the same and looks worth chancing given the odds on offer seem to underestimate his form credentials.
Jonjo O’Neill’s top-weight has been steadily progressive since upped to three miles around this time last year, winning handicaps off 115 and 120, before adding to his tally at Kelso back in September. Nudged up to 130 thereafter, he went off 20/1 for the Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting the following month but ran a cracking race, finding only Hyland too good with the likes of Flight Deck and Dubrovnik Harry in behind.
That reads like strong work in the context of this event and while Judicial Law hasn’t really shone in two subsequent starts, he looks on a workable mark (132) still and is entitled to reverse last month’s Newbury form with Picanha given that one has been left on the same mark and Finn Lambert’s claim is also down from 5lb to 3lb now.
O’Neill’s horses are going well at the moment and I’d be amazed if this one has reached his peak at the age of seven. The cheekpieces going back on also suggests this weekend may have been the aim since resuming after his mid-winter break.
Weather looks ideal for massive Met run (ABANDONED)
Non-stayers need not apply in Musselburgh’s feature - the Virgin Bet Queen’s Cup – the going is described as heavy already and there's an expectation of more rain through the afternoon.
Given the conditions, I could hardly believe the opening quotes of 11/1 against old favourite METIER following final declarations, but still make him at bet at anything at 7/1 or bigger.
Harry Fry’s horse has done regular readers one or two favours over the years and returns to the Flat off just a 4lb higher mark than when winning last year’s Chester Cup and his next outing was in the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak in late-October.
He was a well-held seventh (of 11) at Longchamp and didn’t fare much better back over hurdles in the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier this month but he still showed plenty of his old enthusiasm before weakening from two-out.
He’ll be fitter than most of these returning from their breaks, in light of his winter conditioning at Harry Fry’s, and Danny Tudhope, fresh from his win on Prydwen in the stayers’ event on All-Weather Championships Finals day at Newcastle, looks an informative booking on his first ride for the yard.
It’s a tricky sort of day but hopefully class will out and two top weights can come to the fore.
Published at 1600 GMT on 29/03/24
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