Value Bet Grand National Festival tips: Thursday April 7
1pt win Millers Bank in 1.45 Aintree at 17/2 (William Hill)
1pt e.w. Dancing On My Own in 4.40 Aintree at 28/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
De Bromhead can strike on Aintree return
No shortage of quality with four Grade Ones, while for many the spectacle of the Foxhunters may spell the true beginning of the Grand National meeting at Aintree on Thursday, but there’s no denying the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase is the big betting heat on day one.
I’m already licking my wounds to some extent having recommended Gaelik Coast for Friday’s Topham a couple of weeks ago, so seeing him declared for the Red Rum field was an early body-blow I could have done without, and the issue now is whether to go in again on Donald McCain’s horse.
I certainly couldn’t put anyone off from a handicapping perspective as he’s back on his winning mark from Musselburgh earlier in the season but I’m pretty sure he’s improved for the move up to two and a half miles this season and he could find the tempo a little too hot here, as when only tenth in the same race 12 months ago.
Perhaps the addition of cheekpieces will help sharpen him up but I’ll let him go unbacked and instead focus on the form of last month’s Grand Annual.
Festival winner Global Citizen is up 7lb for beating the gambled-on Andy Dufresne and remains on a very fair mark if you go back far enough, while eventual third Frero Banbou ran a remarkable race in the Grand Annual, looking like he was going to be tailed off at one point before staying on really well past weakening rivals. That also brings his previous Sandown conqueror Dolos into the equation as he’s definitely still on a good mark despite going up 5lb for landing his favourite race in early-February.
Among those fading at the finish at Cheltenham was DANCING ON MY OWN but that doesn’t really do Henry De Bromhead’s horse justice as he’d looked on good terms with himself travelling just behind the leading bunch for most of the race, and was starting to get more seriously involved when a shuddering error at the fourth-last effectively did for him.
He’d been a bit awkward over the water jump too so there’s clearly some room for improvement in the jumping department, though there’s also nobody better than De Bromhead when it comes to ironing out such issues in young chasers.
Earlier in the season Dancing On My Own had defied a lengthy layoff (687 days) to beat Buddy Rich with a very promising performance at Killarney and, given his maiden hurdle success came at Wexford a couple of years back, he might just be happier on a sharper, less undulating track.
The tongue-tie worn for the first time at the Festival is retained and, with Rachael Blackmore required for Zarkareva in the Robcor silks, so is Darragh O’Keeffe, who remains one of the brightest riding prospects in Ireland and already has a second to his name at Aintree from just a couple of previous rides at the venue.
Dancing On My Own’s owners clearly have a big fish to fry with Longhouse Poet in Saturday’s feature but this doesn’t look a social runner by any means and, for the 2019 winning trainer, I’ll take him to surprise a few people at 25/1.
Bank on further improvement to come
Earlier on the card in the SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices' Chase, I’m not entirely convinced Arkle fourth War Lord is value for his official rating (149) and would make Pic D’Orhy the one they all have to beat.
With that in mind, at the prices I’m willing to give another chance to MILLERS BANK who unseated rider after Pic D’Orhy crashed out at Newbury earlier in the season and went down fighting behind the same rival when beaten just a length in the Pendil at Kempton last time.
Having his first run since unshipping Harry Bannister for the second time in succession when still going reasonably well four from home in the Dipper, he had also undergone a second breathing operation and ran very close to a peak performance at Kempton.
Millers Bank’s very best form is probably still his staying-on third behind Abacadabras and Buzz when 80/1 in last year’s Aintree Hurdle but that in itself bodes well for his prospects ahead of a return to this venue.
He won second time out after his last wind op so there could still be a bit of improvement to come – which he’ll need given he’s 5lb worse off with Pic D’Orhy than last time they met - and it’s possible we’ve yet to see a true reflection of what he’s capable of over fences given his jumping frailties earlier in the campaign. Prices of 7/1 and bigger represent very fair business.
French recruit worth a second look
The Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle looks a good clash between the two Irish runners, Brazil and Pied Piper.
Pied Piper only managed third to Vauban in the JCB Triumph Hurdle but there’s a fair case to suggest that on that level of performance he might well have beaten Brazil had he run in the Fred Winter despite the fact he’d have been giving Padraig Roche’s horse 5lb in the Festival handicap.
Preference is for Gordon Elliott’s charge off level weights here but there are two new faces to this scene putting me off getting stuck into the market leader. The first is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Petit Tonnerre who cosily won a small handicap at Market Rasen in February despite kicking over the final two flights of hurdles.
The main danger could be posed by another French import in Fautinette, representing the same owner-trainer combination as Grade One-winning novice chaser L’Homme Presse.
Fautinette has yet to race in Britain but has been at Venetia Williams’ yard since before Christmas and was reportedly among those a little under the weather during the stable’s New Year quiet spell. That’s presumably set her back a little but making her UK debut in top-class company at this meeting – in receipt of 7lb from the boys – looks fascinating.
She was three-from-three for Guillaume Macaire, the form of her third success working out quite well with the runner-up winning his next two and, for those dead keen to have a bet, she could be worth a small win-only dart in a race lacking anything with real star potential.
Allen could be key player in Bowl
I’ll hold fire with her given the amount of guesswork involved and will take the same restrained approach in the Betway Aintree Hurdle and the Betway Bowl Chase, though Eldorado Allen is quite tempting in the latter and would definitely become a bet if drifting out to something close to 8/1.
His rider Brendan Powell was caught between a rock and a hard place dropping in trip against Allaho in the Ryanair but the eight-year-old did remarkably well to very nearly hold on for second in the circumstances.
He’ll surely be happier back up in distance on a flatter course and I wouldn’t be reading too much into the fact he was hammered by Protektorat here last year as the Tizzard team were having a very rough time of things. They’ve already matched last year’s April tally of two winners early on this month and Eldorado Allen looked made for this contest when skipping away from Royale Pagaille, Clan Des Obeaux and De Rasher Counter in the Denman Chase at Newbury.
Published at 1500 BST on 06/04/22
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