Grand National tips: Antepost preview and bets for Aintree on Saturday April 13 2024
Our expert has a 40/1 recommended bet for the 2024 Randox Grand National following the unveiling of the Aintree weights.
Antepost racing tips: Randox Grand National
1pt win Chemical Energy in Randox Grand National at 40/1 (bet365, BetMGM, BetUK) - 33/1 General
Beware the Brassil trio
The decision to reduce the maximum field size from 40 to 34 ahead of the 2024 Randox Grand National has, somewhat ironically, made things look a lot more cramped from the perspective of an antepost punter.
The previous safety limit had been in place since the year this scribe was born so it’ll no doubt take another couple of years at least to figure out exactly how best to approach things when it comes to taking aim from long range after the unveiling of the weights. Having said that, I’m willing to risk the great race cuts up a little from this point and can happily look just outside the current top 34.
Martin Brassil, who oversaw the National victory of Numbersixvalverde in 2006, has enjoyed something of a renaissance in recent seasons, certainly compared to the majority of training establishments outside of the big three in Ireland, and it’s not hard to envisage him enjoying more high-profile success at some of the major spring festivals again this year. Fastorslow spearheads the select team heading to Cheltenham and Brassil has three engaged in Aintree's highlight, with something to recommend every one of them.
Longhouse Poet has tried and failed on a couple of occasions in the past but now finds himself fairly well-handicapped, while Panda Boy (will need at least nine to drop out between now and declaration time) was an eyecatcher over hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival. He has long looked the sort for a marathon trip over fences at some stage.
The more devilish risk-taker in me fancies having a dart at the final Brassil entry, novice Destermore House, who appeared to spark dreams of further Grand National glory for the owners of Numbersixvalverde (who had also won the Irish version in 2005) when following up his Kilbeggan success back in August with a very strong staying performance under Ricky Doyle to win the Kerry National.
He’s picked up a bit more experience in soft-ground, small-field novice events since and could easily bounce back in the spring, but the lure of Fairyhouse is presumably going to be quite strong for his connections and I can just about overlook the tempting 50/1 on offer given he’s down as number 58 on the revised Aintree list.
New market leader Vanillier has had a textbook prep season ahead of his attempt to go one better than when a running-on second to Corach Rambler last year and is fully 9lb better off with the winner, while Monbeg Genius is the obvious one who may find himself ahead of the assessor on the day as he could win at Kelso and/or Cheltenham en route to his long-term target.
Feeling positive about Energy
However, it is very difficult to ignore the sheer size and strength of the respective teams from Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott and while a lot of them have shown their hand to some extent this season or last, the Elliott-trained CHEMICAL ENERGY still brings massive potential after just seven career starts over fences.
He’s deliberately had a very quiet campaign this time around, running a perfectly adequate race from a prominent pitch when ending up sixth behind Desertmore House at Listowel in September.
The ground was much softer than he cares for that day, as was the case when second to Gaillard Du Mesnil in last year’s National Hunt Chase at the Festival. There’s a pretty strong argument to suggest Mahler Mission was going to win before his fall two-out at Cheltenham, but Chemical Energy ran really well in the circumstances and it's worth recalling he had given John McConnell’s horse 5lb and a complete shellacking on good ground at the Showcase meeting earlier last term. The Elliott runner will be getting 10lb from Mahler Mission if they both line up at Aintree.
That three-mile Cheltenham victory was the selection's second win over fences after justifying favouritism over the extended two miles at Listowell, so he’s clearly got a nice blend of speed and stamina – a prerequisite for the modern-day National.
With a BHA mark of 148 (rated just 1lb higher than in Ireland), he's been given a considerable chance and with his weight of 10-5 now set in stone, it's significant he’s been entered to make his debut in the Bective Stud silks, having been kept in the Elliott yard after going for £215,000 at the recent Caldwell Construction dispersal, in this Saturday’s Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) at Fairyhouse.
A positive showing at the weekend should tee him up perfectly and will see the current antepost odds take a nosedive.
Published at 0900 GMT on 21/02/24
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