Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Wednesday August 2 on Sussex Stakes day
Our value-seeking expert looks ahead to the second day of action from Goodwood with two recommended bets on the card.
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Value Bet tips: Wednesday, August 2
1pt win Tony Montana in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Physique in 5.20 Goodwood at 12/1 (bet365)
Conditions expected to be attritional
Ground conditions could get pretty desperate for day two on the Sussex Downs where the poster-boy of the Qatar Goodwood Festival Paddington is set his next test.
Aidan O’Brien suffered a major blow as dual Derby hero Auguste Rodin failed to live up to his billing in last Saturday’s King George at Ascot, but Paddington has been the model student at Ballydoyle all year, rising through the ranks from a handicap at Naas in March to stand on the brink of a fourth straight win at the highest level.
The three previous Group 1 victories have all come on good ground, but it was testing at Naas, as well as the Curragh when following up in early-May, so there shouldn’t be any panic in the camp over the weather forecast.
I’d expect him to come through this test easily enough, French rival Facteur Cheval potentially the wildcard to pose most problems given the conditions, but in truth Wednesday looks a very quiet day on the punting front.
I’m occasionally guilty of giving horses one chance too many and must admit there is some temptation to go back in with one-time Classic fancy Dream Of Love in the Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes after her eyecatching effort under top weight in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot when last seen.
She’s clearly not come up to expectations since pushing Mawj close out in Dubai at the start of the year but may just have found her level here, with soft ground seemingly no issue at all.
I do prefer the mud-loving Fast Response from stall one here, though, and with her sitting right near the top of the market it’s ultimately another race I’m content to watch with interest.
Montana could kick on from opening success
The Coral Handicap looks a bit more enticing to my eye and with all due respect to William Haggas's Chester maiden winner Amleto, who may or may not be thrown in from an opening mark of 89, he looks plenty short enough in the betting.
TONY MONTANA looks to offer a bit more in the way of value on his handicap debut following a confidence-boosting first career win over 10 furlongs at Newbury last month.
He had been totally over-faced by the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot the time before but he had looked quite promising prior to that in fairness to connections, including a debut second to Bluestocking on his only start as a juvenile last September.
That Salisbury effort came on good to soft ground and he’s closely related to a bunch of winners who enjoyed plenty of cut, so I’m willing to chance him handling the conditions here. Bad ground combined with the step up to 12 furlongs may ultimately prove too demanding, but he looked to have really turned a corner at Newbury and his mark of 92 may prove lenient if living up to his smart pedigree (half-sister Horseplay won at Group 2 level).
Cole runner looks made of the right stuff
The other one to back on Wednesday is the Paul and Oliver Cole-trained PHYSIQUE – also a son of Kingman – in the concluding World Pool Handicap.
He’s yet to win a race this season but was late to make it to the track as a juvenile before running two excellent races on ground with plenty of ease at Newbury and Newmarket, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him enjoy a good time of things towards the back end of summer and into the autumn.
He’s definitely given the impression he can win a nice handicap or two this time around, stepping up on his Chelmsford comeback (far too keen) to finish third over this course and distance when first sporting the tongue-tie in May and he backed that up with another solid run when third here the following month (replay below).
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Having finished just a length and a quarter behind reopposing runner-up Darkness that day, Physique should be seriously competitive given he’s 6lb better off with David O’Meara’s horse now – before the jockey’s claim (was 7lb, now 5lb) is taken into account.
He’s had a nice break since finishing 10th of 29 in the red-hot Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot and will be seen in a better light back over seven furlongs with a really strong pace to chase.
Physique’s dam is a half-sister to the high-class California who won the Lillie Langtry here, while owners Jim and Fitri Hay have enjoyed lots of good days at this course over the years too (Here Comes When, Khaadem, Duke Of Hazzard, The Corsican, Ancient Rome on day one etc) so it could be a case of this being the plan from some way back.
Published at 1500 BST on 01/08/23
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