It's day four of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and our value-seeker focuses in on the big betting races.
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Value Bet tips: Thursday, August 3
1pt e.w. Tronador in 1.50 Goodwood at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. The Gatekeeper in 3.00 Goodwood at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Call Glory in 4.45 Goodwood at 12/1 (bet365)
Versatile Irish raider could relish new trip
A wide-open Coral Goodwood Handicap kicks off day four on the Downs and, with the flag start to complicate matters further, it’s no surprise we’ve seen some big-priced winners of this race over the years with only one winning favourite in the past decade.
A prominent pitch isn’t essential but getting away brightly sometimes helps in what can be a muddling affair and Aggagio could be a key horse in that respect.
Gary Moore’s charge has a superb course record including three wins and two seconds, with his rare blip here coming last time out in June when uncharacteristically sluggish from the stalls and no doubt using up too much petrol early doors to adopt his typically forward position.
Having found only subsequent Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami too good over a mile and three-quarters here off just 1lb lower two starts back, the five-year-old looks to hold solid claims around the 10/1 mark on ground we know he’ll handle.
The other front-runner Emiyn, something of a Chester specialist and up 5lb following his latest win there last month, is expected to pester Aggagio up front and this could really help open things up for those held onto nearer the back later once the cards are played later on.
Prince Imperial can’t be judged too harshly on his Ascot Stakes run after completely blowing his chance at the start and he’s sliding back to what looks a fair mark, but if the sun dares to poke its head out and the ground does start to dry a little, TRONADOR will be a massive threat to all despite having to race from 2lb out of the handicap.
He’s already had six visits to Britain all told since moving over to Gordon Elliott’s yard in 2019 (initially started out with David Lanigan) and is possibly best remembered for his handicap hurdle win at Aintree’s Grand National meeting two years ago.
He’s not been the easiest to catch on a going day since then but has mixed it reasonably well in both codes and looks back close to his best following a recent Flat success at Listowel and a strong-travelling third (did best of those held up in a tactical race) back over jumps at Bellewstown last time.
Another shot at Galway, having run there in 2021, must have been tempting so it’s significant connections have targeted this event and his BHA Flat mark of 77 (runs off 79 in this) does still look pretty handy given he was once rated as high as 138 over the sticks at Cheltenham.
The extreme trip could be just what he needs in this sphere these days, while six of Joe Fanning’s 10 rides for Elliott in the past have hit the frame (two winners) so he looks a very positive booking at a track he knows so well.
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Johnston to come good in valuable handicap
The biggest betting race of the day is the Coral Golden Mile and Fanning could be on a live one here too in THE GATEKEEPER.
Bad ground hasn’t helped the majority of Charlie Johnston’s Goodwood team this week but this is a rare one from the yard who appears to handle cut perfectly well and I reckon he’s being overlooked in the market on just his third run over the trip.
Currently rated just 1lb higher than when beating recent Newmarket winner and Ascot third Star Of Orion over seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile back in May, he’s seemingly come right back to the boil again following a cracking effort on the July Course just last Friday.
Time will surely tell The Gatekeeper put up a very creditable effort in splitting progressive three-year-olds Terwada (Ed Walker) and Oliver Show (Sir Michael Stoute) – to whom he was conceding 10lb and 17lb respectively – on that occasion, and he’s going to be well suited by this slightly sharper test on his course debut.
On top of the track looking likely to suit, he has what could be a brilliant draw in stall five. Eight of the past 10 winners have been housed among the five inside gates and to make things even sweeter for this horse he's got some relatively slow starters/hold-up horses down on his inside, including favourite Lattam.
Low has traditionally been essential and while any further rain may admittedly result in the considerable advantage being somewhat negated by the runners heading more towards the centre of the track up the straight, Thursday’s evidence suggests the far side is still going to be the place to be come Friday afternoon.
New recruit to benefit from nursery switch
Elsewhere on the card, Nostrum, Hamish and Highfield Princess are all understandably short for their respective races.
John Quinn’s mare is the one I’d be least keen on, personally, but with main danger and much-improved Equality priced no more than fairly around 6/1 against the multiple Group 1 winner, I’d rather back his Charlie Hills stablemate CALL GLORY in the Ire-Incentive It Pays To Buy Irish Nursery Handicap.
I’m not worried at all about the draw in this race and, if anything, stall 11 for the selection could be a bonus if likely leaders Starlust (12) and Zoulu Chief (13) drag the field more centre-to-stands’ side which is fairly typical with the stalls in the centre on the sprint course.
A strong pace looks all but guaranteed anyway with the Johnston-trained Specific Times (4) another expected to be up there from the off, and that promises to suit Call Glory, who ran better than the bare form suggests on his stable debut in last month’s Weatherbys Super Sprint.
Picked up from Jack Channon after easily winning a seller here the previous month, the son of Soldier’s Call was sent off 80/1 for the big sales race at Newbury but was only beaten six and a quarter-lengths despite being briefly impeded by the runaway winner Relief Rally.
The form of that race has taken one or two knocks already this week but the winner looks exceptional and Call Glory will find things far more palatable now sent handicapping off a mark of 74.
His ability to handle the track is proven and he clearly doesn’t mind some ease underfoot either (even though it was quick for his win), while his sire has already had a bunch of six-furlong winners so there’s every reason to believe – backed up by the way that he shaped at Newbury – that the move up in trip will spark further improvement.
Published at 1500 BST on 03/08/23
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