At the time of writing, Aidan O’Brien trails Andrew Balding by £82,494 in the British Trainers’ Championship.
In five of the last nine seasons, that deficit would have been eroded in the Futurity Trophy Stakes alone; this year’s William Hill-sponsored event gives a whisker off £156k to the winner, thanks in part to a 2025 BHA initiative that guarantees a total prize fund of £275,000 for each two-year-old Group 1.
And it seems like O’Brien is viewing it as a crucial cog in the title race machine, with 11 of the 17 confirmations on Monday residing at Ballydoyle.
As we’ve seen on several occasions this season, the betting has proven to be a very useful tool, though that’s often been most implicit with regards to running plans in those races where O’Brien held the nap hand with the first few in the market.
That isn’t quite the case with Saturday’s mile contest, though, with Burning Up (Karl Burke) and Breacher (William Muir & Chris Grassick) second and third-best in the betting, though it’s a familiar protagonist in this tale as O’Brien’s Noble Exhibit heads the market.
Third on debut in the Curragh contest where all eyes – before, during and after – were on Monogram, Noble Exhibit made a big impression when pulling seven lengths clear on his next start and, though the winning distance was much less, took another step forward when dominating the Beresford Stakes back at the Curragh (replay below).
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Will Noble Exhibit encounter some competition for the lead on Saturday? As we know, it’s unlikely to come from one of his 10 stablemates (unless that’s what connections desire).
And it’s also a question mark over whether it will emerge from First Law who represents a Charlie Appleby yard that won this in 2023 with Ancient Wisdom. The Too Darn Hot colt made all to win at Haydock, and ran well in defeat behind Ballydoyle runner Haffner in the Royal Lodge, but it was notable how keen he was on the latter occasion. This ground and track should suit, but have his three quick runs come just a bit too...er...quickly?
Al Hudaiba is also engaged for the 'Boys In Blue', but, with plenty of rain around in South Yorkshire, I can’t see connections choosing this race over the Juvenile Turf at Keeneland a week later.
Given the stakes, Balding’s sole entry Gran Dia probably deserves more than just a throwaway line, though this is a big step up from a winning debut at Salisbury just three weeks ago where he was green throughout. Clearly, he could progress, but he will certainly need to (second well beaten at Nottingham since), and he has a very different profile to the yard’s 2019 winner Kameko who had already been second in both the Solario and Royal Lodge before winning this race (when it was run up at Newcastle).
Elsewhere, the most likely improver from the Ballydoyle battalion could be one-time Derby hope (now as big as 50s) Giant Sequioa. He was a disappointing 7/2 shot in the National Stakes but was one of those running on a weekend when it emerged that the stable had been fighting a 'low-level infection'.
His dam Pink Dogwood – who went on to be second to Anapurna in the 2019 Oaks - was a heavy-ground winner over a mile before finishing her debut season with a close-up fifth in the Prix Marcel Boussac, so it’s not unreasonable to expect improvement from the Futurity Stakes winner as his stamina is drawn out. Could he emulate Mac Swiney who did the Futurity Double (Editor's Note: is this a thing?) in 2020?
Neither blue or pink on Oddschecker, he’d be interesting if supported in the coming days, as would Haffner – who himself bounced back from a National Stakes flop to win at Newmarket – and the unbeaten Wall Street. The latter won well at Leopardstown on Saturday and wouldn’t normally be on the radar for a race like this a week later, but had this race nominated as an option following his debut win, and I’ve given up guessing what O’Brien will do following the recent Dewhurst victory of Darkness Falls. He dropped a quarter of mile in trip when winning at Newmarket and could be well named; sharing his moniker with a 2003 horror film, ante-post betting in races with Ballydoyle runners has now become a much scarier proposition.
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