Ben Linfoot looks ahead to Saturday's ITV racing from Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar and he has a trio of recommended bets.
1pt win Came From The Dark in 1.51 Ascot at 11/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w Oneforsue in 2.06 Newmarket at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Symbolize in 3.36 Ascot at 15/2 (bet365, Hills)
Eight races make up ITV4’s coverage on Saturday afternoon and we could be looking at softening ground conditions around the country with plenty of rain forecast as we go into the weekend.
The opening British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap at Newmarket is a terrific race with lots of up-and-coming fillies in the line-up and White Willow might be a little overpriced. She has improved since dropping back to 10 furlongs and she should be suited by the Rowley Mile course, as New Bay’s progeny have a super record there in the autumn.
However, there are too many good three-year-olds in here with lots of potential and Roger Varian’s AL HUSN appeals at the most likely winner.
The daughter of Dubawi was really impressive over a mile here last time out, when she was part of the Varian super seven, and stepping up in trip to 10 furlongs could well unlock further improvement judging by her pedigree – which also suggests she should be fine if the ground worsens.
Manaccan looks the most likely winner of the Listed Oakman Inns Rous Stakes but I don’t mind taking him on given he’s had a busy time of things and I do like a horse with a freshness angle here in CAME FROM THE DARK, who is well proven on softer ground.
He wouldn’t have a chance on his two runs this season following 301 days off the track, but he clearly had an issue and Ed Walker has given him a second wind op which could work the oracle.
After his last wind op he rattled off the four best performances of his career and on his best form – his neck second to Lazuli in the Palace House Stakes and neck victory over Arecibo in the Coral Charge – he has a big form chance.
Obviously we’re taking a chance on his form from last year, but that’s compensated for with his price and Danny Tudhope, three from 12 for Walker, looks a good jockey booking given this horse’s come-from-behind style.
Walker could have a good day as he holds a strong hand in the £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes with Amichi and Union Court having solid form claims.
If you watch the former’s win on the July Course (see video replay, below) you’ll see him storming up the stands’ rail to win, but watch out for ONEFORSUE who raced in a group of two on the far side and was beaten only four and a quarter lengths.
That was a big effort and she gets an 8lb pull with the winner, so the 3/1 and 25/1 price discrepancy looks wrong especially with Eric Alston’s filly drawn amongst the pace towards the stands’ side this time.
Too keen last time at Haydock, this daughter of Bated Breath looks sure to appreciate this big field and at big prices she’s worth a small interest.
The forecast rain will be music to the ears of William Haggas ahead of HAMISH’s bid for the Group 3 Peroni Nastro Azzurro Cumberland Lodge at Ascot.
He loves softer ground and he probably needs at least a bit of cut in the ground at this trip, a drop in distance by two furlongs following his excellent run behind Kyprios in the Irish St. Leger last time.
That’s the standout recent form in this race and he can see off the much-maligned High Definition - a horse on a losing run of 11, but one who is capable at this level if the favourite is not on his A-game.
It’s a cracking renewal of the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes with last year’s runaway winner Saffron Beach taking on brilliant Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Homeless Songs.
Both had tough races behind Pearls Galore last time, though, and Saffron Beach usually has a bit more time between her races, while Homeless Songs has to go and prove she’s just as good as she looked earlier in the campaign.
There’s no doubt they set a high standard at their best, but John & Thady Gosden’s supplemented LAUREL looks highly promising and she’s taken to best the big two on just her third racecourse start.
She posted a huge timefigure for a debutant at Newmarket in July and then coped well with a dawdling pace at Kempton last time where she sprinted away from another smart prospect in Pure Dignity.
Whatever the conditions it’ll be the softest ground she has ever run on, but she’s such an exciting prospect it’s worth chancing she can handle this test at such an early stage in her development.
ROHAAN looks the bet of the day in the Group 3 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes at Ascot.
If you could pick a scenario for Rohaan you’d pick a good-sized field at Ascot over six furlongs with a good pace to aim at and he won’t mind the forecast rain, either.
This is a serious drop inn class after his defeats behind Highfield Princess and Minzaal and while he can be left with too much to do at the top level on flatter tracks this Group 3 at his beloved Ascot looks ideal.
The thriving Michael Dods-trained pair of Commanche Falls and Gale Force Maya are highly respected, but it could be that they helps set things up for Rohaan here at a track that often suits his style but not theirs.
HOLGUIN is a tentative selection in the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar.
This race is a bit of a punting minefield with proven horses like Cold Case and Barefoot Lady rightly dominating the market, but relatively short prices don’t really appeal given the big field and nature of the race.
Preference is for Holguin who is improving with racing and though he was beaten by Cold Case at Doncaster he challenged away from the winner towards the far side.
If he takes another step forward things could be different at Redcar.
Andrew Balding can strike again in the Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup with SYMBOLIZE.
He won this race eight years ago with Intransigent and Symbolize goes well on the Ascot straight track as form figures of 4-3-8-0-7-2-2-0 suggest, as many of those runs have been in huge-field handicaps.
One of those seconds was in this race last year off an identical mark on heavy ground, while the stands’ side could be the place to be judging by Friday’s seven-furlong handicap at the same track.
Published at 1520 BST on 30/09/22
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