Our man looks ahead to the action at Aintree this weekend and has two early fancies, including one in the Becher Chase.
Racing betting tips: Saturday December 9
1pt e.w. Mister Coffey in 2.05 Aintree at 10/1 (888, Unibet, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Bashers Reflection in 3.15 Aintree at 8/1 (General)
Just the 17 runners were left in the Becher Chase on Monday, including last year’s winner and third Ashtown Lad and Percussion, but the former has failed to complete on his last two starts, while the latter is currently 6 lb out of the handicap.
They’re also holding first and second spot in the betting market, too, but I find it hard to support Ashtown Lad at around 5/1 given he does have something to prove at present, and if recent Troytown winner Coko Beach does take his chance then Percussion will find his task much harder by being kept out of the weights.
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I went back and watched the 2023 Grand National this morning just to remind myself of how well MISTER COFFEY went through that race, and he really did shape much better than finishing eighth and beaten over 25 lengths suggests. He was still around three lengths up jumping two from home and was only joined at the last by the eventual winner Corach Rambler, soon after which his stamina started to wain on the run-in, and he quickly fell back through the field.
It is worth remembering that Mister Coffey was up in the van throughout that race, though, going with plenty of zest and jumping with aplomb throughout, having Coko Beach for company for much of the way before that rival dropped away from four out and was eventually pulled up – Mister Coffey is also 12 lb better off at the weights now, too.
The Grand National was run on ground that Timeform described as ‘good’, so conditions may be a little more testing this weekend with the National course currently good to soft, soft in places, and there is more rain forecast later in the week. However, Mister Coffey has plenty of form on soft ground, and he is racing over a shorter trip of three miles and two furlongs now.
The elephant in the room is of course that Mister Coffey remains a maiden over fences, which is obviously a concern given the amount of chances he has had in this sphere, but he has finished runner-up in half of those starts. Also, he didn’t shape too well on his recent return in a valuable listed event at Cheltenham, but he did look very rusty on his first start for seven months, making a few mistakes at his fences. However, given how well he shaped in the Grand National, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Nicky Henderson has outlined the Becher as his main early-season target, and a return to these fences may be liberating.
Mister Coffey is now 5 lb lower than he was in the Grand National, back down to a mark that he twice finished runner-up form last season, and on both of those occasions he bumped into well-handicapped rivals. I expect him to be ridden positively and if he gets into another good rhythm, I think he will be incredibly hard to keep out of the frame, so with several firms paying four places in the ante-post book, he looks a knocking each-way bet at around 10/1 in my opinion.
The final race on Aintree’s card on Saturday, the Boylesports Extra Place Races Handicap Hurdle, run over two and a half miles, has a good look to it and I’m keen to get BASHERS REFLECTION on side.
He was an improver at a lower level last season, winning three handicaps at around this trip, and it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of his victory at Wetherby three weeks ago. He had clearly come on plenty for his reappearance run and he won in the style of a much-improved performer, always travelling well and produced to lead on the bridle at the second-last.
That race was a little weaker than this one on paper, but the form looks strong, the runner-up a solid mare who figures on a lenient mark, while Rafferty’s Return, who finished third, had been successful from the same mark at the same course last season.
So the fact that Bashers Reflection beat those two out of hand, without barely coming off the bridle, suggests he is a horse well ahead of his mark. He didn’t do much once in front, idling on the run-in once clear, and historically he hasn’t found a great deal under pressure, either.
However, as a strong-travelling type who goes on any ground, this race at a flat, speed-favouring track should really play to his strengths. The handicapper has raised him 7 lb in the weights for his latest win, which may well underestimate him, and the current 8/1 on offer looks fair with that in mind.
Trainer Ben Case is enjoying a good time of it at present, on track to record his best season for a while, and Bashers Reflection, who is still only a six-year-old, looks capable of making his mark at a higher level now.
Published at 1252 GMT on 05/12/23
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