Andrew Asquith is back with his ante-post column and has a couple of fancies at Sandown and Newmarket this weekend.
Weekend View: Saturday July 4
1pt win Tribal Chief in the Coral Challenge at Sandown at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Noble Horizon in the Old Newton Cup at Newmarket at 16/1 (Unibet, Ladbrokes, Coral)
The Coral-Eclipse at Sandown is the headline race this weekend, but it doesn’t make appeal from a betting spectacle, likely to be a small-field event in which ante-post favourite Constitution River will be well supported by his bodyguards (ahem, stablemates) and he already sets a clear standard on form.
He didn’t need to improve when winning the French Derby last time, but he remains potentially top-class judged on his Chester performance, and I’ve no real urge to take him on this week, the bookmakers not really giving anything away with who I and the market consider his main danger, Gethin.
I feel there is little value in the market for the Coral Charge, neither, my idea of the likeliest winner being Rumstar, who is bidding to bounce back from a below-par run at Royal Ascot and win this race for the second year running.
He again wasn’t seen to best effect in the King Charles III Stakes a couple of weeks ago, once more not done any favours with the draw and he wasn’t given a hard time after his chance had clearly gone. This race should suit him much better, and he’s proven before he’s more than capable of bouncing back, but odds of just 4/1 aren’t tempting at all if I’m honest.
Luckily, there’s the Coral Challenge, which is always a good-quality handicap, and the entries look particularly strong. It features last year’s winner Classic, who proved better than ever when narrowly denying the reopposing Indalo in a handicap which has worked out well at Newbury in May.
The third, Mezcala, was heavily supported when winning the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, and you could also argue that Indalo was an unlucky loser in the Hunt Cup, doing by far the best of those drawn in single figures and beaten only two and a half lengths.
He’s just 1lb higher in the weights so it’s no surprise he’s been installed as favourite, but the David Menuisier-trained TRIBAL CHIEF could be even better handicapped.
Tribal Chief can be a hostage to fortune given the way he’s ridden, usually slow leaving the stalls and held up, but he showed last season when winning a useful handicap at Goodwood that he’s a classy operator when it all comes together, and his form this season has a strong look to it.
He ran a cracker when third to Urban Lion and Rogue Diplomat in the Lincoln on his return, travelling well in rear and having to switch a couple of times for a run, finishing more towards the far rail and away from the action even despite breaking from stall 21 (next to the stand rail).
That form is working out quite well and received a very nice boost when runner-up Rogue Diplomat won the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Tribal Chief filled the same position in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs and shaped in very similar fashion, travelling powerfully in rear and having to weave his way through.
The drop to seven furlongs was probably against him on that occasion and I thought he would have gone very close to winning if he had another furlong given the manner in which he finished in a race where the pacesetters didn’t really come back.
Interestingly, the handicapper hasn’t raised him in the weights for either of those runs, and if things pan out more ideally for him, he should be very competitive. Tribal Chief didn’t get in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, and there’s a chance he might be balloted out here, but he looks an intended runner with Saffie Osbourne provisionally booked.
She doesn’t ride for the stable much, but she has a good record on fancied horses when doing so, notably winning a Listed event on Inis Mor this season, and Tribal Chief is one to follow this weekend, arriving fresher than most after all.
Elsewhere, the Lancashire Oaks is due to be run in Suffolk this year as the meeting has been moved from its usual home Haydock to the July Course at Newmarket due to the conditions of the track meaning it still isn’t raceable.
Tiffany is taking a big chunk out of the market, but that is because the majority of her rivals either don’t arrive in much form or having plenty to find on the book. It isn’t a race I’m keen to get involved in at the prices.
The Betway Old Newton Cup also has a short-priced favourite given the nature of the race and the William Haggas-trained Klassleader is one I want to be against. Indeed, he’s a lightly-raced four-year-old who looked potentially smart on his return at York in May and is just the sort to go on progressing for a while yet.
However, you’re on a hiding to nothing backing horses at 2/1 in handicaps such as this, especially when there’s an equally exciting horse trading at double-figure odds.
The horse in question is NOBLE HORIZON, who has an outstanding pedigree – by Kingman and out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens, who is also a sister to Nathaniel – and he left his previous efforts well behind when opening his account for these connections in some style at Leicester recently.
He didn’t quite reach the heights that his previous trainer William Haggas would have liked, but he did finish in and around some now smart types last season, and he came on a bundle for his seasonal and stable debut for which he did attract some support in the market.
Noble Horizon started a similar price last time and again was ridden forcefully, his jockey happy to go to the front and it was basically no looking back from there. The fractions he was setting were fast ones, too, and for him to be able to power away under a hands-and-heels ride from two furlongs out suggests he has some engine.
The visual impression he created was backed up by a good timefigure and the form is already starting to work out. The runner-up, who was five and a half lengths behind an eased Noble Horizon has been beaten just a neck in a handicap since, while the third managed to win next time. Percy’s Daydream, who finished last, has also won a handicap by four lengths.
The handicapper has reacted by raising Noble Horizon 10lb in the weights, but that is perfectly acceptable, and he could have plenty more to offer for the up-and-coming Oli Rix. There also doesn’t appear to be an obvious amount of pace on paper among the entries, which is also an interesting angle if he’s ridden in the same manner he has been so far in both starts for this yard.
The July Course invariably suits front runners, even over middle distances. Indeed, horses who have an Early Position Figure (EPF) of 1 on Timeform’s scale (this indicates the horse has made the running) has a 19% strike rate on the July Course with a whopping £158.81 profit to £1 level stakes.
The way he powered clear at Leicester, along with his pedigree, suggests that he will have no problem staying a mile and a half, in fact I think he’ll likely improve further for it, and he’s too big of a price at 16/1 for me given he has the potential to take a significant leap forward.
Preview posted at 15:15 BST on 30/06/2026
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