Andrew Asquith had winners at 12/1 and 6/1 last weekend and has two more ante-post bets on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday February 22
1pt e.w. Ilikedwayurthinkin in the 2.10 Newcastle at 16/1 (1/4, 12,3,4 William Hill, 888, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Roysse in the 3.00 Kempton at 8/1 (General)
It's a tricky weekend of racing from an ante-post perspective with just five races priced up on Tuesday morning, and three of those are graded juvenile or novice events with a small number of entries.
I do think there is some value in the Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton, though, with Miami Magic taking a big chunk out of the market following his encouraging second to Potters Charm in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day.
His previous form stacks up well, too, but he’s as short as 6/5 in places, and I think that’s a little skinny considering there are several other progressive types in opposition. Ben Pauling is having a cracking season, and his run of good form is showing no signs of slowing down, Handstands securing the yard with another Grade 1 success at the start of the month, and he has also saddled three winners in the last week.
Therefore, I think ROYSSE is a little overpriced at around 8/1. He showed near-useful form when winning a bumper at Newbury last season, beating a next-time-out winner in a race the yard has tasted plenty of success in over the last five years or so.
Pauling clearly likes to target a nice type at that bumper and Roysse has made a very encouraging start over hurdles this season. He was very well backed on his return from 10 months off – and a breathing operation – and went like much the best horse at the weights when runner-up in a novice at Newbury in November, going with plenty of zest and looking in control jumping three from home – he traded 1.05 in-running on Betfair.
However, he found a lot less than looked likely when his jockey asked for his effort on the run-in, leaving the impression he just blew up on his first start for a while. He did nothing to dispel the idea he’s an above-average type returned to Newbury next time despite again hurting the pocket of odds-on backers.
Roysse again went with plenty of zest from, this time from the front and he had all of his rivals trailing in his wake from as early as the back straight, extending that gap to around 30 lengths at the second-last, impressing with his jumping and how strongly he travelled. He had the race at his mercy when departing at the last, jumping the final flight ok but just crumpling on landing. The two that fought out the finish after his departure finished very tired, so it just goes to show what kind of engine he has.
Roysse deservedly opened his account at Uttoxeter last month, again starting at prohibitive odds and again having his rivals well strung out. They were unable to match the pace he was setting, going clear after jumping four from home and the advantage only reduced after he wasn’t that fluent at the next flight and was steadied into the second-last.
He briefly looked in trouble coming down to the last, but a good jump there sealed matters and he picked up well on the run-in to win with much more in hand than the two and a half length margin implies, more or less coming back on the bridle.
His previous form, and what he did at Uttoxeter, strongly suggests he’s ready for a step up in grade, and two miles round Kempton, on likely good to soft ground, are perfect conditions for him to showcase his natural speed. Roysse has a bit to find with several of these on official ratings, but Timeform have taken a stronger view of his form, and he definitely has the potential to bridge that gap; he’s just the sort to raise his game further now taking on deeper opposition.
I’ve looked through the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase and I do like the claims of Lowry’s Bar. However, he was withdrawn at Ascot last weekend with a vets certificate (bruised foot) so whether he takes his chance or not I’m not sure.
It is easy to see why the money has come for Hyland this morning having finished runner-up to The Jukebox Man in a Grade 1 last time, but the one thing that concerns me about him is that all of his runs over fences have some in small fields, so it will be interesting to see how he contends with more horses in and around him on Saturday and he does lack a bit of size. It looks a trappy race to get involved in at this stage of the week for me.
The Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase is the big betting race at Newcastle on Saturday and the marathon test looks likely to be run on good to soft ground. One horse who won’t be deterred by conditions is ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN who’s enjoying an Indian Summer at this stage of his career.
He was a useful chaser when trained by Gavin Cromwell in Ireland, but made a slow start for his current yard, tumbling down the weights as a result. However, he has thrived since being refitted with cheekpieces and moved back over fences this season, winning four of his last six starts.
His most striking victory came at this course over an extended 29 furlongs in November, where he made most of the running to comfortably beat a field of dour stayers by eight and a half lengths. A standout aspect of that performance what his neat and accurate jumping, getting into a really good rhythm and readily drawing clear, having no problem with a significant step up in trip.
The handicapper hit him with an 8lb rise for that success, but he proved that no obstacle when running even better in defeat back at three miles at Ayr last month, unlucky to bump into an unexposed and progressive novice trained by Gordon Elliott who was five years his junior.
Ilikedwayurthinkin once more impressed with his jumping, but was just unable to live with the eventual winner coming down to the last, having no extra to give on the run-in. He did pull 10 lengths clear of the third, though, and the timefigure he recorded that day gives the form added substance.
Therefore, he looks attractively weighted racing from the same mark, especially with a view to moving back up to extreme distances. He looked a natural on his first start beyond three miles when winning here two starts back and, even though he’s an 11-year-old, he could have even more to offer over marathon trips.
Admittedly, this will test his stamina further, but his latest run at Ayr should have set him up perfectly for a crack at this, and I was surprised to see him as big as 16/1 in the betting. He hasn’t got a jockey assigned at the time of writing, but you would have to think he’s a likely runner, representing a yard who have plenty of runners at Newcastle, and likely conditions right up his street.
- Preview posted 14:10 GMT on 18/02/2025
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