Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ayr and Newmarket
Andrew Asquith struck with a 14/1 winner on Saturday and is back with three bets at Newmarket and Ayr this weekend.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday April 20
1pt win Al Mubhir in the 3.15 Newbury at 16/1 (Bet365 - 12/1 General)
1pt e.w. Cracking Rhapsody in the 2.25 Ayr at 25/1 (1/4, 1,2,3,4 General)
1pt e.w. Ballygrifincottage in 3.35 Ayr at 25/1 (1/5, 1,2,3,4,5 General)
The main action on the Flat this weekend comes from Newbury, where the Greenham and Fred Darling are poised to give us even more clues towards Guineas weekend at Newmarket next month. I looked through both races, but was unable to find any bets at the current prices, so I’m happy enough to sit back and watch both of those races with a keen eye to the future.
The Spring Cup is a different kettle of fish, though, with a healthy number of entries and several horses on show who shaped up well in the Lincoln at Doncaster last month. I put up Lattam for that race and he made a most promising start for these connections, short of room at a crucial stage and running on well in the closing stages once the winner, Mr Professor, had already flown. Lattam finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago from a 6lb lower mark, and is entitled to run another big race up 3lb from Doncaster, but he won’t be carrying my money this time.
The horse I have landed on for the Spring Cup is the William Haggas-trained AL MUBHIR, who goes particularly well in testing ground – it is currently soft, good to soft in places at Newbury – and shaped better than the bare result on more than one occasion in some top-end handicaps last season.
He started favourite for his return in the Lincoln on his return last year and, while he probably didn’t have the chance that the market suggested, he ran a creditable race to finish fifth (around three lengths behind Awaal who finished second) on his first start since undergoing a breathing operation.
Al Mubhir resumed winning ways in impressive fashion in a lesser handicap at Leicester on his next start – beating subsequent Ayr Silver Cup winner Wobwobwob by four and a quarter lengths – with any amount in hand. He wasn’t disgraced in listed company behind some smart types on his next two starts and did best of those held up, despite meeting plenty of trouble in running, in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood.
He again ran well in listed company over seven furlongs at this course on his next start before running a race much better than the bare result implies in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot in October, coming home first in his group and having no chance with those who raced in the bigger far-side pack.
Al Mubhir got to within a length of a very smart rival at Saint-Cloud the following month before tiring in the closing stages and I’m prepared to put a line through his latest effort on his all-weather debut at Kempton, where he wore first-time cheekpieces (with his usual tongue tie left off) and never appeared to be liking the experience.
He is a horse who possesses a touch of class, especially when getting his conditions, which he should do on Saturday, while he is also well suited to a big-field scenario where he can get a good pace to aim at. Interestingly, he has been gelded since last seen in December, and he remains a horse who has the potential to win a race of this nature from his current mark when everything falls in his favour. The standout 16/1 looks an excellent bet, while the general 12/1 is fair, too, representing a yard who have been amongst the winners with the small number of runners they’ve had over the last few weeks.
There is also excellent racing up at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting and in the Scottish Champion Hurdle I think CRACKING RHAPSODY is overpriced at 25/1.
He has proved very progressive in his first season over hurdles, winning three of his five starts, and looking better than ever when successful in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso last month. That was his first try in a big-field, competitive handicap but that didn’t bother him at all, produced to challenge at the second-last and staying on strongly on the run-in to prevail by four and a half lengths.
That form has taken a few knocks since, but the timefigure gives his performance substance, and you would have to think he remains well treated from an 8lb higher mark now. Cracking Rhapsody is again in deeper waters, but his profile and manner of racing is most likeable, and he arrives very much on an upward curve. The forecast ground – currently soft, heavy in places – will be no problem and I make him a good each-way bet at his current odds.
Horses from the Willie Mullins yard are sure to be popular at Ayr this weekend, given he is making a last-gasp assault to win the Trainers’ Championship following I Am Maximus’ win in the Grand National at Aintree last weekend, so it is no surprise to see two of his runners well found in the market for the Scottish version on Saturday.
They are easy enough to pass over for me and I’m taking a chance on BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE. Admittedly, he seemingly hasn’t been the easiest to train, having bled in the past and undergone a breathing operation, but there was promise to glean from his latest run when runner-up to a well-handicapped mare who was on a going day at Sandown last time.
He has always appealed to me as being a horse who will relish a test of stamina and I’m hoping he can improve a bit more now faced with a marathon trip for the first time. Ballygrifincottage looked very promising earlier in his career, winning all three of his completed starts in Irish points, finishing placed behind Blazing Khal on his Rules debut in a Grade 2 over hurdles at Cheltenham, and going on to hit the frame in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022.
Ballygrifincottage also looked a potentially smart novice chaser when easily defeating Beauport on his chasing debut at Haydock last season before his problems arose. However, he looked in much better heart at Sandown last time, having every chance jumping the last and just edged out on the run-in, but staying on all the way to the line. I’m of the opinion that he will relish this extra emphasis on stamina and also think that a return to a left-handed track will suit looking back through the pick of him form. At a general 25/1 I’m willing to find out.
- Preview posted at 1630 GMT on 16/04/2024
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