Antepost Racing Tips: 2024 Classic previews including 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby tips
Our expert takes an early look at the British Classics, with fresh recommended bets for both Guineas and the Betfred Derby at Epsom.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: 2024 Flat season special
1pt win Content in QIPCO 1000 Guineas at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Ghostwriter in QIPCO 2000 Guineas at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Ghostwriter in Betfred Derby at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Illinois in Betfred Derby at 40/1 (General)
Already advised:
The year Cox writes most memorable script?
City Of Troy casts an enormous shadow over the antepost markets for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and Betfred Derby, and picking holes in his form, style of racing, pedigree - or anything else for that matter - is a difficult task.
We have been here countless times before with sensational two-year-olds, however, and not all of them go on to be champions the following season. Inside the past five years alone we’ve seen Godolphin pair Pinatubo (2020) and Native Trail (2021) look unbeatable one year only to appear far more fallible as three-year-olds.
Admittedly, both of them enjoyed Group 1 success in their Classic campaigns, but neither won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and you only have to go back 12 months for a stark reminder not to take a skinny price about anything in this race – the equally well-touted Auguste Rodin only beating two rivals home as the 13/8 favourite.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Guineas a record 10 times but has only had two horses finish inside the first six since last winning it with Magna Grecia in 2019, so the presence of City Of Troy as odds-on jolly doesn’t necessarily put me off having a bet in the race.
There should - in theory at least - be a realistic each-way angle to be explored given the current shape of the market and plenty of punters will be happy enough to take that approach with Richard Hannon’s Rosallion, who was the other colt last term who looked to have a touch of magic-dust about his hooves.
Three wins from four starts, including the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc weekend, was a reasonably aggressive campaign for a horse about which the Hannons appeared to have Guineas pretensions before he even took to the track last June, and early-season reports from the yard wouldn’t put you off.
If City Of Troy ends up peaking over middle-distances as the year goes on, then Rosallion - a speedy son of Blue Point who is yet to race beyond seven furlongs but promises to stay the mile without any issue - could have the gears to trouble him.
Rather than fall for that potential trap, however, I reckon stamina is going to be absolutely essential in trying to get City Of Troy beaten in a Guineas, and will attempt to almost fight fire with fire and side with GHOSTWRITER, who looks a cast-iron stayer as another one who excelled at two in spite of running a couple of times over seven furlongs.
His class got him through those initial outings but he stepped it up to another level entirely when asked to go the mile in Newmarket’s Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes in September, and he’ll surely be fully effective at 10 and even 12 furlongs come the summer months.
For now, though, Clive Cox’s horse looks made for a crack at the Guineas en route to a Derby trial and it’s not hard to argue he’s being a little underestimated at 20/1.
As well as having three-year-old champions on the stamina-laden dam’s side of his pedigree (Guineas winner Zafonic features on the page if you go back far enough), Ghostwriter is a son of the exceptionally well-bred Group 1 winner Invincible Spirit, who has sired 2000 Guineas winners in Britain (Magna Grecia) and Ireland (Kingman), as well as the likes of Newmarket runner-up Territories, plus the Prix du Jockey Club winner Lawman.
Interestingly, other high-profile members of Invincible Spirit’s progeny include Profitable, who Cox guided so well to Group 1 glory in the 2016 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, and it’s worth underlining how the typically reserved trainer was only just managing to contain his excitement in the immediate aftermath of last year's Royal Lodge, saying: “This cements what we always thought.”
He went on to state that Ghostwriter was only just beginning to fill his frame last autumn, which bodes really well for this year, and I wouldn’t be too surprised he was one of the best three-year-old colts trained in Britain this season.
Whether or not that’s going to be enough to win Classics, we’ll have to wait and see, but at the current odds I’ll happily pay a small amount to find out. Back him at a generous 25s for the Derby and each-way for the Guineas.
One more Epsom hurrah for the great Galileo?
The other one I'm inclined to back for the Betfred Derby is ILLINOIS, who doubled in price for Epsom with most firms following his low-key comeback run when third to shock winner Dallas Star in the Ballysax Stakes earlier this month.
I wasn’t all that enamoured with the effort at the time but, on reflection, can happily write the performance off as Aidan O’Brien won’t have had him anywhere near 100% and the first run back just looked to be badly needed.
Dallas Star was obviously fit and ready and took full advantage in absolutely desperate conditions, but it was interesting to hear the winning rider Seamie Heffernan say he had suspected they were up against some of the strongest Derby candidates from Ballydoyle beforehand.
He should know, given he rode runner-up The Euphrates to win his maiden at Gowran Park, Illinois to win a Curragh maiden so impressively, and the last of five in the Ballysax – Ocean Of Dreams – to win his maiden at Leopardstown in October.
Illinois went on to show his true potential with a big run in third under Ryan Moore, beaten just a length by stablemate Los Angeles, in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last year and on that evidence we clearly saw nothing like the best of him in the Ballysax.
It was very soft in France too so ground can’t be put forward as the only issue on his seasonal return, but O’Brien seemed more than happy he’d got a run into the son of Galileo in early-April and I can see him coming on massively, especially when encountering some decent ground for the first time in his life.
There are few better than O'Brien at using stepping-stones along the way to Classic glory and it won’t be lost on anyone in the camp that Illinois is a full-brother to Venice Beach, who was beaten in a Leopardstown maiden (soft) on April 5 in 2017 before winning at Tipperary (good) later that month and following up in the Chester Vase on his way to Epsom, where he was 12th to Wings Of Eagles.
He’s also a half-brother to the wonderful Danedream, who – incidentally – was beaten on April 10 when debuting at three before she went on to win the Italian Derby, German Derby and Arc de Triomphe.
Whether Illinois runs again this month is questionable but I fully expect to see a stronger and physically sharper model if he rocks up for one of the trials on what will hopefully be a more suitable surface at Chester’s May Festival.
Killer Content has pace to trouble market principals
Fallen Angel became Karl Burke’s first Group 1 winner since Lauren (2019) when striking gold in last year’s Moglare and it’s no surprise she’s vying for favouritism with Ylang Ylang for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas.
Burke has become something of a specialist with two-year-old fillies in recent seasons - though clearly can’t be pigeon-holed as such given his wide range of achievements during the same period - and it’s probably only a matter of time, given the quality at his disposal, that the Middleham man bags a first Classic success.
Fallen Angel, a daughter of Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up Too Darn Hot, had looked promising enough previously but was different class at the Curragh, quickening well before responding willingly when tackled by Vespertilio.
The problem with that individual piece of form, however, is that short-priced favourite Ylang Ylang didn’t give her true running in finishing last, something she proved beyond all doubt when winning the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket in October.
That race is the best Guineas trial run all last year and Aidan O’Brien’s filly – a daughter of Frankel – was just a couple of pounds shy of Fallen’s Angel’s Moyglare performance (according to Timeform, who have the latter with a ‘p’) in beating Shuwari and See The Fire, with almost three lengths back to the fourth.
Shuwari is on the back-burner after picking up an injury, while I envisage Andrew Balding’s See The Fire - who was still green at Newmarket - to be a serious Oaks candidate on pedigree, being a Sea The Stars filly out of Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen.
Dance Sequence looks the leading candidate among four well-bred Guineas entries for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, the daughter of Dubawi a hot favourite for Wednesday’s Nell Gwyn, but the two who appeal more at the odds are Ramatuelle and CONTENT.
Christopher Head’s Ramateulle was top-class over six furlongs at two but is bred for a bit further, being by Justify out of a Raven’s Pass mare, and she looked to be doing some good late work when beaten half a length by the Appleby-trained Romantic Style in the Prix Imprudence earlier this month.
The winner looks like going for the Pouliches at Longchamp but Head has stated he wishes to stick to plan-A and train Ramatuelle for Newmarket and she can’t be ruled out with that prep run behind her, particularly if the almost never-ending wet weather continues into next month.
However, preference is for O’Brien’s guaranteed stayer Content, who would surely want nice ground in an ideal world, being by Galileo, but did win a Group 3 at the Curragh on soft in early-October.
The switch to hold-up tactics appeared to bring about a huge amount of improvement from her that day and she showed it was no fluke with a massive run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita, where she sat at the back on the inside racing keenly through the early stages.
They simply didn’t go quickly enough for Content, who still only had three behind her at the top of the short home straight and finished better than anything to be fourth.
Those final two efforts of her juvenile career were the clear and well-known signs of a late-blooming Galileo starting to fulfil her potential (disappointing when fancied for the Chesham at Royal Ascot last summer) and she might just take off again as a three-year-old.
O’Brien has won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket seven times in total and four times in the past eight years with daughters of the late Galileo, and this year sees his final full crop of three-year-olds gunning for Classic glory.
Content is his only entry at this stage and I suspect it would mean a huge amount to the whole Coolmore operation if she can add another Guineas victory to the great sire's remarkable stud record.
Jubilee one to monitor ahead of return to action
As already touch upon, I’ve backed See The Fire for the Epsom Oaks already but can’t really recommend her at half the price now seeing as she’s not run since, but will give a positive mention to Frankel filly Regal Jubilee.
Trained by John and Thady Gosden, she had a proper back-end campaign last term and wasn’t sighted until late-September, when everything seemed to go wrong on debut at Newmarket. She finished last of nine that day, with Kieran Shoemark reporting she suffered interference, and the pair of them soon set the record straight in a Windsor novice the following month.
Regal Jubilee – a half-sister to Regal Realm – was very easy to back on heavy ground when stepped up to Listed level back at HQ on her final start in November but she came through well to win by two lengths despite having one or two issues in the starting stalls.
She’s got tons of untapped potential this time around, although there's talk of her going for a Guineas trial and I'm not convinced she'd be up to that at this stage. It’s a watching brief for now, especially with the well-being of current Oaks market leader Opera Singer a little up in the air after a setback earlier this spring.
Published at 0930 BST on 16/04/24
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