Andrew Asquith returns with two more selections in his latest ante-post column, including one in the Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Weekend View: Saturday February 14
1pt win Joyeux Machin in the Swinley Handicap Chase at 8/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt e.w. Holokea in the Grand National Trial at 14/1 (bet365, 12/1 Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3)
There is a cold snap and potential snow showers forecast up and down the country towards the end of this week, but hopefully the weather doesn’t interfere with the fixture list like it has been doing over the past week or so.
There are some small-field graded races at both Ascot and Haydock this weekend that don’t make much appeal from a betting perspective, but there are some competitive handicaps also, notably the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase.
Dan Skelton is a trainer who excels with new recruits, so it is surprising that JOYEUX MACHIN is yet to record a success in nine starts for the yard since making the transfer from Paul Nolan in Ireland, but he has shaped better than the bare result on multiple occasions, and I think he’s worth persevering with.
Seven of those runs have come over hurdles, and his most notable efforts came when runner-up to Altobelli – a course specialist – in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle on this card 12 months ago before filling the same position in a valuable event at Uttoxeter, beaten only a neck from 2lb higher than his current mark.
Joyeux Machin wasn’t given a hard time on his first two starts back over hurdles this season, but they came in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow (always a competitive event) and a premier handicap at Haydock, which was his first start since undergoing a breathing operation.
His mark has come down a little as a result and there have been better signs back over fences (first chase runs for Skelton) the last twice. He didn’t travel with much fluency over three miles at Doncaster two starts back, but there was nothing wrong with his jumping, and he went with much more zest prior to his departure five from home in refitted cheekpieces over the same course and distance in the Great Yorkshire Chase three weeks ago.
He had competition for the lead that day which resulted in an overly strong pace, but Joyeux Machin impressed with his jumping prior to meeting the fifth-last all wrong and unable to stay on his feet on landing. That can be a tricky fence down the side at Doncaster and I was more than happy with his jumping prior to that.
Skelton will have likely done plenty of work in that department at home since and he remains well handicapped on the pick of his form racing from the same mark. It was a change of tactics last time, as he has been invariably held up in his career to date, especially for this yard. Given the amount of potential pace in this race, it would make sense to revert to his usual racing style, and he definitely has the ability to win a race of this nature from his current mark.
There is quite a bit of rain forecast at Haydock this week which will more than likely ensure soft ground given the amount of rain the track has endured since the Peter Marsh meeting (64mm).
That should ensure the William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase will be a thorough test of stamina, which will suit the Mickey Bowen-trained HOLOKEA.
His consistency, especially over fences, is very hard to argue with, and there should be even more to come following just five starts in this sphere. He bumped into Montregard on his debut in this sphere on his final start last season, and that rival has advertised the form well since, while he’s currently favourite for the Swinley at Ascot on Saturday.
Holokea built on that promise when going one place better on his return from six months off at Ffos Las in October, proving himself a well-handicapped horse and impressing in the manner he put that race to bed, making rapid headway when looking like he’d been given too much to do.
That performance was also backed up by an excellent timefigure for the grade and, while he’s filled the runner-up spot all three times since, he’s caught the eye on each occasion and showing improved form each time, too.
Holokea was given too much to do at Uttoxeter in November, went like the best horse at the weights when beaten a neck at Cheltenham in December – he traded at 1.20 in-running on Betfair – and he looked the likeliest winner when jumping the last in a competitive, big-field handicap over a similar trip to this at Windsor last month.
Neo King, who could reoppose on Saturday, came from much further back with a storming run in the closing stages to win going away, but Holkea had been up with the pace throughout that day and more than likely didn’t see the eventual winner on the run-in either given the width apart they were.
He will beat Neo King on 6lb better terms this weekend, while that rival could potentially be racing from 2lb out of the handicap, too. The more galloping nature of Haydock will be in his favour and he is also totally unexposed at marathon trips. Holokea keeps moving up in the weights for not winning, but he’s a strong-travelling sort who jumps well and he has all the right attributes for a test of this size – double-figure prices look a touch too big for me.
Preview posted at 1450 GMT on 10/02/2025
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